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Depends on duty cycles. We have CFLs that have gone for five to six years, and we have those that need replacing every other year... typically bathroom bulbs that go on for just five to fifteen minutes, then go off right away.
CFLs are great. And the new ones are getting even better in terms of lumen output per watt and lifespan. While LEDs are coming down in price, I don't see them becoming very widespread unless environmental regulations basically outlaw CFL.
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