Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4
Government jobs maybe.
I think the fuel economy standards should go up over time. But not what the ridiculous standard they set, what was it something like 65mpg by 2025.
As lighter materials become cheaper to use and technology improves the auto makers would only implement these when it can make the vehicle cheaper to produce. That is the OEMs only motivation.
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54.5mpg average CAFE--which is higher than EPA for any given car. But, that number is not accurate because the CAFE standard varies depending on the size of the car. Vehicles like the Prius, C-Max, and Sonata hybrid already easily exceed their 2025 CAFE.
Where it gets wonky is because of that size measurement--cars with similar wheelbases, like the Ford Fiesta (98") and Porsche 911 (96.5") are held to the same 2025 standard of 61.1 mpg CAFE,
theoretically. That has to be qualified because, based on sales of a manufacturer's various models that determine its unique average CAFE mandate, the 911 doesn't have to get outrageous mileage at all if VW sells enough more-efficient cars to bring its average up, earns credit by selling cars with low-energy-consumption lights or other accessories, buys credits from other manufacturers, or sells enough alternative-fuel vehicles, which are counted at a higher rate than the real number sold (EVs are worth 2.0x, plug-in hybrids 1.6x, etc.) to increase its CAFE for the company as a whole, which is the number that ultimately matters.
Example:
Sketchy Motors sells 8 cars in 2025--two large cars that must achieve 46 MPG CAFE, 2 mid-size cars at 50 MPG, and 4 small cars, 2 ICE and 2 EV, that must get 61.1 MPG, the highest CAFE tier. Based on these sales, and since they aren't a subsidiary brand of a larger company, Sketchy Motors must achieve an average CAFE of 54.5 MPG. Since one of their models was electric, Sketchy Motors' accountants can multiply its sales by 1.5 (the credit phases down from 2.0 in 2021) when figuring the company's average fuel economy.
Say their large car gets an actual CAFE of 30 MPG, their midsize 42 MPG, their small car 55 MPG, and their small EV 105 MPGe. The EV gets counted 1.5x, and their actual CAFE average is 63.2 MPG. Not only does Sketchy Motors easily achieve their CAFE mandate despite 75% of their model line-up underperforming their ostensible targets by a wide margin, Sketchy Motors has enough excess credit that it can sell to an unlucky manufacturer, like truck-heavy Chrysler, and make some extra profit.
Here's a primer on CAFE published when the mandate was first proposed that explains everything. Despite the "unlikely chance" mentioned in that article of gas going back to $2.00/gallon having happened, the CAFE mandate remains generously biased toward manufacturers, and is tied to the actual size and number of models sold, not some theoretical average (like the 54.5 MPG that has constantly been reported; that number is drawn from predictions and industry forecasts which are subject to change and inaccuracy).