EV Price Discussion

[redpoint5]

I just found a 2015 Spark EV listed on CL for $11,000

https://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/cto/6115869905.html

Would really like a cheap i3, but maybe the Spark will compete with the Leaf to be the best used value.

[redpoint5]

Now that the Bolt and Model 3 are out, and the Leaf II is about to drop, what do you think EV prices will do in the next 6-24 months?

I see a 2014 Spark EV listed for $7k with a salvage title. Now that the Spark EV is discontinued, do you think they will depreciate faster? How about the Leaf now that the Leaf II is almost to market?

When do you think the sweet spot to buy a used EV will be?

[oil pan 4]

I think EV prices are still really depending on market saturation and gas prices.
Back around 2010 when gas prices were over $3.50 a gallon and there was a waiting list for the prius and all the companies that did Eav conversions were booked solid for 2 years the existing electric vehicles were going for stupid high prices.

[JockoT]

Once the Leaf II comes out, here in the UK, I think I may try and pick up a Leaf I. They will probably discount them and try and sell them off. There are not a lot of options for me here, other than the Leaf.
The Bolt/Ampera would fill my need brilliantly, but they are not sold in the UK.

[sendler]

I expected the used car pricing of off lease Leafs to hit rock bottom this summer to coincide with the peak of the units that were moved 3 years ago. But the pricing has held steady at $8-9,000.
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Leaf new car deliveries 3 years ago began to slowly drop off after August on a long, steady decline. So supply of 3 year old Leafs will gradually go down keeping the price at least as high as it is now.
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For some reason, I have seen 2015 leafs that must have been on an 18 month lease selling for only 20% more which might be the better value. Miles in the low teens and the 2015's had the best battery chemistry that might actually make it to 100,000 miles before dropping to 50% capacity.
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The 30kWh battery in the mid 2016 seems to be having some problems with bad cells and early degradation again. a few have quickly gone to a degradation trajectory similar to a 24 kWh battery. And Nissan has change the battery life "bars" readout to keep from having to warranty any of them. It looks like the 2016 would have to go to 45-50% loss before the fourth bar will drop.
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2011 and 2012 Leaf batteries are all suspect and are all out of 60 months coverage. So unless you can get by with a 30 mile range, I wouldn't buy one of those for over $3,000. At which point you could buy a new version 24kWh battery installed for $6,500 and have a nice car.

[JockoT]

I was looking at getting a new Leaf, next year, as the dealers try to shift the Mk 1 before the Mk 2 comes into the showrooms.

[sendler]

Discounts and applied federal refunds have already had new Leaf pricing on leases with a buy out at the end at around $20,000. They are not going to go any lower even with the new styling coming out. Other states had additional refunds that got it to $16,000. And there were some group buys in Colorado the somehow got them to $14,000.
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I wonder how close they are to the 200,000 unit cap in the USA which will sunset the $7,500 refund?

[JockoT]

I live in the UK and will be purchasing in the UK so none of the caps you speak about effect me. In the UK, EVs are in categories, as far as the government is concerned, and the Leaf is a Category 1 (These vehicles have CO2 emissions of less than 50g/km and can travel at least 112km (70 miles) without any CO2 emissions at all). The grant will pay for 35% of the purchase price for these vehicles, up to a maximum of £4,500.
However, the discount I am looking for is the dealer discount, that dealers give to move stock of vehicles that have been superseded by newer models. I do not intend leasing the vehicle I opt for.

[sendler]

The Lease then buy strategy was the cheapest way to buy a Leaf in the US. The pricing has been maximally aggressive for a few years now already. It won't go any lower than I stated above just because the updated car is coming.

[Daox]

Originally Posted by sendler

I wonder how close they are to the 200,000 unit cap in the USA which will sunset the $7,500 refund?

According to the sales figures on goodcarbadcar.com, the Leaf has sold 113k units since starting sales in the US. So, we still have a ways to go before hitting 200k.

Nissan LEAF Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

I have my eye out for a 2013-2015 Leaf. When the right deal comes along, I may well nab one.