Make America Guzzle Again!?

[acparker]

Way back in the '70's, we were careening dangerously into the next Ice Age... until we weren't. Anyway, based on past patterns, we are due for a return to a colder climate but the margin for error is in the the thousands of years and we could have one or dozens of warm periods before it comes. Climate changes. Adapt.

If humanity is fated to disappear in 500 years, it will be because of mass hysteria.

[NeilBlanchard]

The best way to sequester carbon in the ground would be to use grasslands and large herds of herbivores - this is far larger quantities of carbon than anything we can artificially use, and it would cost FAR less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgmssrVInP0

It would also be effectively permanent.

Also, we know that we have to stop burning all fossil fuels as quickly as possible if we are to avoid the worst effects from climate change. Because, we have already put way too much carbon into the atmosphere, and IF we can sequester some of what is already out there, then that helps - but we have to also stop putting more additional carbon into the air.

[acparker]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

The best way to sequester carbon in the ground would be to use grasslands and large herds of herbivores...

Eat more beef and save the earth. I could go along with that, if the price comes down.

Also, we know that we have to stop burning all fossil fuels as quickly as possible if we are to avoid the worst effects from climate change.

Uh, no, "we" don't know. We only know that the climate changes, that it has been warming steadily (with wide fluctuations) and sea level has been rising steadily since the end of the last ice age, and there is no conclusive evidence that says that the world will be worse for it.

CO2 is not a pollutant. The earth is not a terrarium. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 can only have a minimal effect on temperatures, though they have had a positive effect on plant growth.

If, as some claim, we have already triggered runaway catastrophic warming then no amount of social self-flagellation can change it. The proper response should be to strengthen our economies so that we have the resources to deal with any negative effects.

I recognize that fossil fuels are a finite resource. We should conserve our use of these resources in order to provide time to establish more sustainable energy sources, like advanced fission or fusion reactors, biomass, geothermal, etc.

We will need that energy if we are to successfully adapt to the next ice age.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by acparker

Ice ages are good for plants and animals that adapted successfully to it. Overall, a cold planet grows less food and, therefore, cannot support as many organisms as a warm planet.

Simply not true. For one thing, photosynthesis starts to shut down at high temperatures. For another, look at where the major food-producing regions of the planet are: in the temperate latitudes. Likewise ocean productivity peaks in the temperate latitudes: Ocean Productivity

For humans, historical periods of advanced social and cultural growth and stability have coincided with warm periods, warmer than what we have now.

Again, simply not true. The most obvious flaw here is that in the history of human civilization, it never has been warmer than it is now. We could also note that most of modern civilization, and certainly the technology of the last couple of centuries, has mostly been the product of people living in temperate climates.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by acparker

Way back in the '70's, we were careening dangerously into the next Ice Age... until we weren't.

Again, simply not true. There was a possibility of human-induced cooling due to SO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants &c, but once pollution controls reduced the emissions, the problem went away.

Anyway, based on past patterns, we are due for a return to a colder climate but the margin for error is in the the thousands of years...

No, we know what drives the Ice Ages. It's the Milankovitch cycles, and that puts the next Ice Age at about 15,000 years from now.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by acparker

Eat more beef and save the earth. I could go along with that, if the price comes down.



Uh, no, "we" don't know. We only know that the climate changes, that it has been warming steadily (with wide fluctuations) and sea level has been rising steadily since the end of the last ice age, and there is no conclusive evidence that says that the world will be worse for it.

CO2 is not a pollutant. The earth is not a terrarium. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 can only have a minimal effect on temperatures, though they have had a positive effect on plant growth

We will need that energy if we are to successfully adapt to the next ice age.

Small changescause massive effects, such as Tsunami, Tidal waves, Hurricanes, Tornadoes , Drought and flood.

The best thing we could do is start lowering our population

Next best is reducing resource use per capita.

Also CO2 can increase growth rates of certain things, sadly those things are usually just poisonous algae blooms.

[freebeard]

NeilBlanchard — Thanks. I liked the video, especially the Australian using the analogy of Ayers rock hovering over NYC like an alien mothership (or 100s of them!) to get peoples' attention.

I don't see the necessity (let alone morality) for actually eating the herbivores, but I do see robotic apex predators to keep the lions in check.

The ultimate bottom of the mismanagement cycle he describes is Saharasia.

James DeMeo, Saharasia

Six thousand years later and we still haven't recovered our equanimity.

Human Violence is Unnatural. Perpetual War is Not Inevitable.

The Human Species is By Nature Loving, Cooperative and Peaceful.

There is a Real Early Peaceful Period in the Archaeological Record.

The Concept of a "Naked Violent Ape" or "Violent Genes" is a Modern Fantasy-Falsehood.

Early Climate Change Towards Saharasian Deserts at c.4000 BCE led to the
First Widespread Appearance of Violent Human Societies, who have
Favorably Perpetuated Themselves over the Centuries by Conquest of more Peaceful Societies.

[oil pan 4]

We will stop burning fossil fuels for sure.
When they run out.

[acparker]

jamesfq,

Are you basing this on William Connolley's revisionist climate history at Wikipedia? Both the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were warmer than what we are experiencing now, nor were they just regional events. Curious that the most rapid advances in technology have occurred in the past 150 years, when it has supposedly been the warmest ever.

Photosynthesis is not in danger.

A warmer earth does not mean that Europe, North America or Northern China were, or will be, experiencing tropical temperatures. Temperatures moderated, overall, with most warming occurring as reduced minimums (still well below 0) in the Polar regions, as is happening now.

Higher latitudes have an advantage in food production because there is greater landmass there. Tropical agriculture is very productive, and has been historically. It lends itself better to intensive agriculture. Southeast Asia has been a major supplier of rice for China and India since the 1500's.

I do not recall any discussions of human induced cooling or SO2 back in the 70's. The concern, and not an unreasonable one, was simply a return to an ice age, as happens every time we go into a period of cool years. That concern spawned the fear of Nuclear Winter, as though plain old Mutually Assured Destruction was not terrifying enough.

The sincere folks at the Union of Concerned Scientists felt they needed more leverage for their political efforts to ban nuclear warheads in Europe, something that would scare those who lived in countries outside the probable blast and radiation zones. Of course, when a proposal was made to test their models with real science, they blocked it. They were just warming up (pun intended) for their next escapade.

Now, if Milankovitch Cycles drive Ice Ages, would they not logically also drive Not Icy Ages? Additionally, if solar radiation is the primary driver of climate change, wouldn't variations in solar output be as, or more, significant as the position of the earth to the Sun? Food for thought.

rmay635703,

Records show that we are not experiencing more frequent or more severe weather events than in the past. Climate change has no effect on tsunamis/tidal waves.

The elevated levels of CO2 have been most beneficial in increasing crop yields and tree growth, globally. Algal blooms are usually triggered by large influxes of nitrogen and/or iron. The nitrogen is probably human caused, but the iron is blown over the ocean by the trade winds Not so recent studies claim that iron rich dust from the Sahara has been essential to the health of the Amazon forests for millennia.


There is far more that we do not know about weather and climate than what we do know. The current climate hysteria is based on conjecture and unproven models. It has become a belief system with no room for doubt or discussion. Blind faith has become science and scientific diligence is labelled heresy and denial.

I understand the desire to live an idyllic existence, but please don't try to force the rest of us into it by relentlessly harping on about the end of the world. Ehrlich and Hansen have revised their end-of-days dates as often as a cultist preacher. I can't really blame them. Claiming that, "The world is ending unless you do what we say," has been a successful scam for generations. It doesn't make it any less disappointing that people still fall for it.

[redpoint5]

I'm on ecomodder because efficiency is interesting to me. Making the best use of resources makes sense, and can be a fun pursuit of its own.

That said, global warming doesn't even make the top 20 list of most threatening things to humanity.

In no particular order, the following far outweigh the consequences of global warming:

War (especially nuclear, biological, genetic, etc)
Physical violence
Hunger
Disease
AI
Astronomical event

We'll figure out how to mitigate or adapt to changing climate, but I fear we will not figure out how to improve compassion and rationality before we figure out how to destroy ourselves.