Clean Disruption

[wdb]

Originally Posted by Old Tele man

...and there's no ribbon in the typewriters.

Wait, who authored those atrocious "Planet of the Apes" movies?

Probably these guys.

[redpoint5]

When my wife was accepted to PA school at OHSU in Portland, we had to figure out how to get her the 15 miles to school every morning and then back again. It's a trip that takes 20 minutes, unless you're trying to get there at 8am when school starts, in which case it takes an hour. Traffic back in the afternoon is even worse, perhaps 70 minutes.

We tested the bus route one morning to see what that would be like. This would free my wife up to study or relax instead of the 2hrs being wasted. She had the option to walk about 1/4 mile to a bus stop, which would then take her to the transit station where she would get on another bus. That adds about 20 minutes to the ride, or you could just drive the 1.5 miles to the transit center, park the car, and get on the bus. We drove to the transit center rather than spend the extra time.

From there, it makes several stops before needing to get off and catch another bus. This required a 1/4 mile walk. Once there, we waited about 15 minutes, which was about 10 minutes behind the posted schedule. In talking to others waiting for the bus, they said it never runs on time.

It took 1:15 after driving to the bus transit center to make it to class, with a good deal of walking and standing around waiting. If anything doesn't go to plan, you're late for class. The cost is $125/mo.

My wife ended up splitting an apartment in Portland with a classmate, and I brought in 2 roommates to defray the cost (which I still have).

Public transportation sucks and is a last resort, probably only useful for tourists who don't have rental cars. Bus routes can't survive much longer, thank goodness.

[JockoT]

My grandson went for his usual train to go into Edinburgh for a exam at the local university. The trains were cancelled. By the time he got there the exam was started and he was refused entry. He had to resit which delayed his graduation.
I avoid public transport like the plague, and that is even after the Scottish government gives me free bus travel because of my age!

[gone-ot]

HISTORICAL IRONY - Benito Mussolini's only benefit to Italy was his "...trains run on time."

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by sendler

Autonomous ride sharing and car hailing will be much cheaper than taxis or car ownership.

So? It's not (from my admittedly limited experience) all that expensive now. It's not the monetary cost, it's the time spent waiting for the thing to arrive.

WRT public transit, I have to admit my only extensive experience was with the Swiss system, which seemed to work pretty well.

[JockoT]

The plans are to have the ride at your door in under 5 minutes (seen some business plans where if it doesn't arrive in that time your ride is free - like pizzas). My flat is that far from the kerb as it is. It takes me that long to get to my own car! So you call it, stick on your coat, pick up your keys, and it's there.
And yes, the Swiss rail system is exemplary, but that is the exception that proves the rule.
I love driving and love my car, but would be hard pressed to own one if I could enjoy all the benefits for less than half the price.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by JockoT

The plans are to have the ride at your door in under 5 minutes (seen some business plans where if it doesn't arrive in that time your ride is free - like pizzas).

Well, maybe that works for urbanites :-) But it takes me ~20 minutes to get from my place to where there are more than a few scattered houses. And I live way too close to town - a consequence of needing high-speed internet for work. I have friends that live a lot further out.

And that's only the starting from home end. Many of my car trips take me to trailheads &c that are a long way from anywhere, and often don't have cell service. So I'm supposed to call (if I can), and wait an hour or two? And is the autonomous vehicle provider going to be willing to send its expensive asset down a rough dirt track?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Well, maybe that works for urbanites :-) But it takes me ~20 minutes to get from my place to where there are more than a few scattered houses. And I live way too close to town - a consequence of needing high-speed internet for work. I have friends that live a lot further out.

And that's only the starting from home end. Many of my car trips take me to trailheads &c that are a long way from anywhere, and often don't have cell service. So I'm supposed to call (if I can), and wait an hour or two? And is the autonomous vehicle provider going to be willing to send its expensive asset down a rough dirt track?

Obviously, things are rarely 100%. We still have people who commute on horse, despite cars being dominant the last hundred years.

Your need of high speed internet for work is testament to the disruptive nature of technology. Some people aren't able to get high speed internet due to where they live. Regardless, the internet has changed life for most people.

Technology will still be disruptive, even if it doesn't directly change the way you choose to do things. Try viewing the world through a different lens than your own. You might even win friends and influence people in the process.

[JockoT]

And why wouldn't they have off road EV's in an area like that? If the Nissan Leaf can take part in the Mongol Rally, why not.

[redpoint5]

I've noticed a lot of people arguing the rare hypothetical scenario lately, and somehow arriving at the conclusion that if an unlikely bad thing is possible, then we shouldn't embrace the new thing. Another argument is that since things haven't worked out in the past, they won't work in the future.

Here are some equivalent arguments:

Sometimes toasters burn people and cause fires - Ban toasters
Sometimes people wreck their cars on icy roads - Ban driving on icy roads
Some people don't use cruise control - remove the option for all people
Solar energy has historically has not been economically viable - solar energy will never be economically viable

The thing is, successful things have always failed... until they succeeded.