EV Price Discussion

[Snax]

I suppose what allows me to give more credence to the video analysis is the aggressiveness with which manufacturers are finally picking up the baton. GM isn't abandoning Volt production to get away from EVs after all, and every major manufacturer now has something on the road or will very soon with more planned for release as soon as they are viable for production.

So yeah, the curve and timing are speculative, but watching where the money is actually being spent on development, not unfathomable IMO.

[redpoint5]

What has GM announced to replace the Volt then? If they have announced nothing, than proclaiming the removal of the Volt as a good thing doesn't make sense.

It seems clear to me GM knew the Volt would not sell after expiring tax credits.

Manufacturers aren't aggressive at all, except Tesla, who lives or dies by this technology.

GM sales have slipped and they are cutting their plug-in models in half (to just the Bolt).

Who knows how many copies of the Kona and Niro are planned for sale, but it's not likely many. Have the companies announced a 50-state release, or only CARB states?

The Leaf 2.0 should have been a sales success, but has more or less matched the Bolt.

Tesla's Model 3 is carrying the EV market in the US right now. We'll see how well they do now that the credit has been halved. My guess is 2019 will be their best US year, but 2020 will rely on foreign markets to soak up the production capacity.

[oil pan 4]

That's the problem.
Gas gets cheap, no one cares about plug in cars or economy cars.
Then when gas goes near $4 a gallon all the pay check to pay check gas guzzler drivers who are up side down on their gigantic SUVs loan loose their minds.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

What has GM announced to replace the Volt then? If they have announced nothing, than proclaiming the removal of the Volt as a good thing doesn't make sense.[

Short term:

GM has announced the Velite 6 based on the Bolt platform (BEV2) plus one other still unknown CUV for 2020.




Long Term:

GM announced the BEV3 platform at the Detroit Auto Show. Cadillac will be the flagship EV brand for GM. GM will launch 18 new BEV3 models globally from 2021 to 2023. The vast majority of the vehicles will be CUVs. 10 will be for China.

[freebeard]

Volkswagen plan to ship electric models from their Chattanooga TN plant in 2023. Earlier electric will be imports from Germany. They will show a[n electric] dune buggy concept in 2019.

The buggy will make its global debut during the 2019 Geneva auto show, according to Autocar. While Volkswagen will present it as a concept car, insiders told the magazine that turning it into a production model is under “active consideration.” If built, it would showcase the MEB platform’s unusually high level of flexibility. Volkswagen has also used the architecture as the basis for a Golf-sized hatchback, a Microbus-inspired van, an SUV, and a sleek-looking sedan. All of these vehicles have been previewed by concept cars over the past two years.

It sounds like we haven’t seen everything the MEB platform is capable of underpinning yet. Decision-makers reportedly envision the buggy as one of three heritage-inspired additions to Volkswagen’s ID-badged lineup of electric cars. It will join the production version of the retro ID Buzz concept from 2017, which has already been confirmed for production, and Autocar reports the third model will arrive as a four-door interpretation of the emblematic Beetle, which is scheduled to retire[?] for the third time in 2019.

[oil pan 4]

I know what GM replaced the volt with.
Higher profits at least until gas prices go over $3 a gallon and they find them selves not selling any fuel efficient affordable cars and all their sales tank.

[ldjessee00]

Now that every auto manufacturer has announced an EV model (or more) to be available to consumers in the next 2 years, I see the transition to smart phones. My flip phone was still for sale a year after the Apple iPhone came out... but not two years. And come three years, it was something to comment on (Why have you not got a smart phone).

I know people who are resistant and still do not have a smart phone, but they are not the majority.

I think the 5 to 10 years is easily a time for SALES of EVs to surpass ICE sales, but it will be 20 years or more before the majority of passenger vehicles on the road are EV.

Also something to consider, all the major companies that sell gas have bought, partnered or started their own charger business. That Shell and BP both bought into charger companies I think is a good indication. Yes, it will take several years to install chargers at all gas stations, but I see these companies are going to do it. Sure, this year will be slow... but in 5 years, it will be like how most stations have diesel, but not every single one (having had a diesel car, I ran into that more than I thought I would, but still 85% had diesel).

So with BP and Shell in on adding chargers to gas stations and auto manufacturers producing EVs, I think the sales of EVs will surpass the sales of ICE passenger vehicles within 5 to 10 years.

OPEC has been playing it smart and trying to keep the price low... but there is only so long they can do that.

This is my thinking based on what little I know about the auto industry, technology, observed technology transitions (SD to HD, VHS to DVD, cassette to CD, etc), and people.

[redpoint5]

No chance EVs outsell ICE in 10 years. That's 2 model generations away, meaning the currently in development EV, plus 1 more generation. I don't see the Leaf 4.0 outselling ICE vehicles.

In fact, we'll see EV sales plummet for GM this year, taper off for Tesla next year, and the same for Nissan and Toyota the year after that.

There are too many obstacles to overcome to get to 50% in such a short timeframe. 50% of people probably don't even have access to charging at home. I'm in an apt for a few more months, and have no way to charge an EV.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

No chance EVs outsell ICE in 10 years.

What about in minus 4 months?
https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/elect...-norway-tesla/
(and that was without the Model 3, not available there yet)

Norway is not the world and it was one month, not the full year.
But for Norway, 2019 will be that year. Other countries may follow suit, I expect the Netherlands will be there in 4 or 5 years.
What happens next depends on the cars available then.

[redpoint5]

I'm specifically referring to the US, but I suppose I'd extend that claim to the world too.

It doesn't surprise me that a wealthy and relatively homogeneous group of people who have been conditioned to relinquish liberty might achieve 50% EV sales at great expense.

Norway's largest industry is fossil fuels, so they have benefited from great natural resource wealth and can better afford to spend money to be "clean". Then there's the fact that Norway is the size of New Mexico, and the width of the country is small enough to cover in a Tesla on 1 charge.

Those conditions don't exist in the US, and won't in the next 10 years.