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Old 08-13-2020, 11:01 AM   #11 (permalink)
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In five years, BEVs are predicted to cost no more than conventional cars.
I'm not yet convinced of that. Things are going slower than expected (or could possibly be), perhaps due to the influence of major oil magnates. And there is still some efficiency to be gained from fuel engines.
I do think that there will be plenty of good affordable EV's for sale in 5 years from now, but next to it I see fuel engines remain on the market for a long time, in (mild) hybrid form.

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Old 08-14-2020, 01:27 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenTDI View Post
Things are going slower than expected (or could possibly be), perhaps due to the influence of major oil magnates. And there is still some efficiency to be gained from fuel engines.
Do you think the oil sheikhs don't diversify their assets? Even they know that oil won't last forever. When it comes to efficiency to be gained from ICEs, there is a lot of room for improvements, even though they've been coming at a very slow pace.


Quote:
I do think that there will be plenty of good affordable EV's for sale in 5 years from now, but next to it I see fuel engines remain on the market for a long time, in (mild) hybrid form.
Not sure to which extent there would be a real motivation for automakers to release affordable EVs even though most of them could do it right now while still relying mostly on off-the-shelf parts. When it comes to ICEs remaining for a long time in hybrid form, be it mild or full-hybrid, there is no escape. Even though manual transmissions don't seem so great for a hybrid without a good integration between the ICE and the motor-generator unit in order to keep it possible to have a launch as smooth as it's achievable with the ICE alone, it does surprise me that mild-hybrid capability is taking quite too long to increase its market share here in Brazil.
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Old 08-14-2020, 01:12 PM   #13 (permalink)
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test procedure

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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
On the WLTP - Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure

https://www.wltpfacts.eu/from-nedc-to-wltp-change/
AeroStealth just did a quick and dirty test cycle, that any member could do. He's posted the info at the fossil fuel free forum.
For decades there's existed a myth ( folk knowledge) that, hybrids and BEVs get 'better' mpg in the city. The claim is a physics 'FAIL', to be taken specifically within the context of existing urban traffic, much of it, manufactured by traffic engineers, for whatever reason, who've failed to synchronize the traffic lights they install.
I suppose that they're called traffic lights because they create traffic.
Anyway, AeroStealth's little exercise put some numbers within easy reach.
If the United States ever gets public education, no high-schooler will ever make it behind the wheel of a car until they understand the actual physics of an automobile.
The Texas Governor's Office published the results of official testing done on the subject in 1988. American motorists were losing $62 for every $1 not spent on traffic light synchronization.
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Old 08-14-2020, 01:20 PM   #14 (permalink)
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five years

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Originally Posted by GreenTDI View Post
I'm not yet convinced of that. Things are going slower than expected (or could possibly be), perhaps due to the influence of major oil magnates. And there is still some efficiency to be gained from fuel engines.
I do think that there will be plenty of good affordable EV's for sale in 5 years from now, but next to it I see fuel engines remain on the market for a long time, in (mild) hybrid form.
I'm just repeating what automotive journalists report in the popular press.
Those ICE 'efficiency' improvements you're thinking about are part of the increased costs, which when added to the calculus of automotive pricing lead to the conclusion that BEVs will achieve price parity by 2025.
What consumers do from there remains the mystery.
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Old 08-14-2020, 05:10 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
Those ICE 'efficiency' improvements you're thinking about are part of the increased costs, which when added to the calculus of automotive pricing lead to the conclusion that BEVs will achieve price parity by 2025.
Some improvements were supposed to not lead to an increase on costs, such as the Achates Power engine design. Or even replacing 4-cyl engines for 3-cyls within the same displacement in order to decrease weight, frictions and cost is also somewhat of an improvement.
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Old 08-14-2020, 07:37 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
AeroStealth just did a quick and dirty test cycle, that any member could do. He's posted the info at the fossil fuel free forum.
For decades there's existed a myth ( folk knowledge) that, hybrids and BEVs get 'better' mpg in the city. The claim is a physics 'FAIL', to be taken specifically within the context of existing urban traffic, much of it, manufactured by traffic engineers, for whatever reason, who've failed to synchronize the traffic lights they install.
I suppose that they're called traffic lights because they create traffic.
Anyway, AeroStealth's little exercise put some numbers within easy reach.
If the United States ever gets public education, no high-schooler will ever make it behind the wheel of a car until they understand the actual physics of an automobile.
The Texas Governor's Office published the results of official testing done on the subject in 1988. American motorists were losing $62 for every $1 not spent on traffic light synchronization.
Hybrid and EVs do get better fuel economy in the city compared to highway driving No laws of physics need to be broken. They get better mileage in the city because speeds are lower. Driving 70 - 80 mph consumes a lot of energy.

AeroStealth drove a loop at a steady 40 mph and then again with 6 30 second stops. I don't know of anyone that thinks adding stops will improve MPG. The surprising thing to me from his test was how poorly the truck did on the loop with stops. I wasn't expecting 55% greater fuel consumption with the stops.
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:01 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Hybrid and EVs do get better fuel economy in the city compared to highway driving No laws of physics need to be broken. They get better mileage in the city because speeds are lower. Driving 70 - 80 mph consumes a lot of energy.
Fixed gearing optimized for urban traffic also leads to that.
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Old 08-21-2020, 09:01 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
Those ICE 'efficiency' improvements you're thinking about are part of the increased costs, which when added to the calculus of automotive pricing lead to the conclusion that BEVs will achieve price parity by 2025.
It's true that cars with ICE are also becoming more expensive due to improvements of all kinds (& to meet the requirements for cleaner emissions). The smallest/cheapest car models are gradually being removed from the range because they are no longer profitable for manufacturers.
And that EVs are gradually becoming cheaper (due to larger production numbers and lower production cost of the batteries) is also a fact. The smallest segment may benefit from this: assuming that small cars are used for short distances and city miles: where an electric motor is very efficient.

I therefore see that electrification will mainly happen with smaller cars in the near future. But big family/luxury cars (like that Mercedes in te opening post) can benefit from a fuel engine because these cars are often used for long/highway distances. Off course in combination with plug-in electric motor. But if you recharge the batteries after every 40/50 miles (= full electric range) fuel consumption is zero too.
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Old 08-22-2020, 08:39 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenTDI View Post
It's true that cars with ICE are also becoming more expensive due to improvements of all kinds (& to meet the requirements for cleaner emissions).
Sometimes it seems to be more due to the emissions requirements than to actual improvements. Most automakers have been quite slow to adopt some breakthrough technologies that could increase the benefits to the combustion process. Just look at how long it took for Koenigsegg to release its camless engine, and don't hold your breath for it to become so widespread as major automakers might not want to pay royalties for a tech they would need to outsource.


Quote:
The smallest/cheapest car models are gradually being removed from the range because they are no longer profitable for manufacturers.
I am noticing a shrinking to the overlap of econoboxes within some brands which had different models catering to similar customer profiles, while others are offering fewer engine variations for their newer generations of small cars.


Quote:
And that EVs are gradually becoming cheaper (due to larger production numbers and lower production cost of the batteries) is also a fact. The smallest segment may benefit from this: assuming that small cars are used for short distances and city miles: where an electric motor is very efficient.
Even though it may not remain the same in Europe, in other markets such as Latin America a compact might be the only car available at a household, so it may not really be suitable to a total electrification as they may still need to be a jack-of-all-trades instead of becoming too specialized.


Quote:
I therefore see that electrification will mainly happen with smaller cars in the near future. But big family/luxury cars (like that Mercedes in te opening post) can benefit from a fuel engine because these cars are often used for long/highway distances. Off course in combination with plug-in electric motor.
Even for smaller cars it may be possible to retain the ICE for longer, as they may also benefit from other circumstances such as eventual improvements in manufacturing and technology. A small motorcycle engine would already be suitable to operate at least as a range-extender for an EV, and actually some twin-cylinder motorcycle engines in the 400 to 500cc range could even move quite comfortably a small car fitted with a 3-cyl 1.0L gasser.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:01 AM   #20 (permalink)
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I wish there was a diesel hybrid with the layout of the Honda IMMD. Keeping a diesel engine in it's sweetspot whilst driving demands change (using electric motor assist) would have incredible fuel economy.

However small 4 cylinder diesel engines are quite tractory in nature and you'd definitely know when they turn on.

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