Small / economy car deathwatch: we've passed "peak econobox" again

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

I like charts too.

Since 2010 average fleet fuel economy is up 14% while the price of gasoline has dropped 45%. Why? CAFE requirements require auto makers to continue to improve fuel economy.

Not saying it doesn't have an effect, and not saying CA can't govern themselves the way that makes the most sense to them. Just sayin' these sorts of attempts to reduce fuel consumption open the door to corruption and creative loopholes that create unintended inefficiencies.

I'm as excited about the improvement in MPG as anyone, but we've gone about it the wrong way.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Not saying it doesn't have an effect, and not saying CA can't govern themselves the way that makes the most sense to them. Just sayin' these sorts of attempts to reduce fuel consumption open the door to corruption and creative loopholes that create unintended inefficiencies.

I'm as excited about the improvement in MPG as anyone, but we've gone about it the wrong way.

That was more a comment on your comment the economic factors have a great impact than CAFE standards. The fact is that the average fuel economy of cars sold in the USA almost perfectly track the CAFE requirements.

The NHTSA aggressively increased mpg standards from 1978 - 1987, held them steady from 1998 to 2004, and then increased them aggressively from 2005 to 2027. Look at the graph.

[Hersbird]

Originally Posted by JSH

Such a niche company would likely choose to just pay the $56 per mpg fine



There is no carve out for medium and heavy duty truck. They aren’t part of CAFE as they have their own emission and fuel economy standards. Phase 1 covered 2011 to 2020 and Phase II is 2021- 2027. Phase 2 requires a 25% reduction in fuel consumption. .

But that in itself IS a carve out. So at some point if they reduce the abilities on the better selling 1500 trucks, the owners will just all move into 2500 and 3500 trucks because they are exempt. Then they will go to F650s if they have to, or even the aforementioned Kenworth.

[Xist]

Too bad they stopped making real trucks like the Kodiak TopKick a decade ago!

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

But that in itself IS a carve out. So at some point if they reduce the abilities on the better selling 1500 trucks, the owners will just all move into 2500 and 3500 trucks because they are exempt. Then they will go to F650s if they have to, or even the aforementioned Kenworth.

The average transaction price for a full size truck was $48,377 in 2018. Why does the typical buyer pick a F-150 today instead of a F-450 for almost the same price? The F-450 comes standard with a 6.7L diesel that makes 450 hp and 935 lb-ft of torque. Crew Cab / 8 foot bed / dual rear wheels. The F-450 has almost 3 times the payload and tow rating of a F-150. If we are going by working truck specs the F-450 is the clear choice.

Medium duty trucks have different standards because they are actually work vehicles. Very few people want to drive a truck sprung to carry 6250 lbs that is 22 feet long.


Nobody is reducing the abilities of the 1500 trucks. They are getting bigger, more powerful, AND more fuel efficient year after year. When I graduated high school in 1996 the most powerful F150 had a 5.8L V8 that made 210 hp / 325 lb-ft of torque and got 13 mpg. Today the least powerful F-150 makes 290 hp / 265 lb-ft and gets 22 mpg. The most powerful is 375 hp / 470 lb ft and gets 19 mpg

[Fat Charlie]

Originally Posted by JSH

The average transaction price for a full size truck was $48,377 in 2018. Why does the typical buyer pick a F-150 today instead of a F-450 for almost the same price?

By and large, it's because they don't need trucks. If they bought the payload capacity they really needed, they'd be driving Camrys and Civics.

[Hersbird]

Still not even close to a 54.5 average. I know 54.5 is not the actual EPA rating but needless to say pickups will have to do even better gains, from 2020 to 2025 than they did from 1996 to 2020. It's just not going to happen while maintaining current capabilities especially while also cracking down on diesels.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

Still not even close to a 54.5 average. I know 54.5 is not the actual EPA rating but needless to say pickups will have to do even better gains, from 2020 to 2025 than they did from 1996 to 2020. It's just not going to happen while maintaining current capabilities especially while also cracking down on diesels.

Full size trucks do not have to get to 54.5 mpg, they only have to get to 23 mpg by 2025. Ram is meeting the 2025 standard today with a 305 hp gas engine.

Ford shows that even truck buyers are willing to adopt new technology if it matches their expectations. In mid-2017 only 25% of Ford F-150's sold had a V8 engine.

[Hersbird]

Originally Posted by JSH

Full size trucks do not have to get to 54.5 mpg, they only have to get to 23 mpg by 2025. Ram is meeting the 2025 standard today with a 305 hp gas engine.

Ford shows that even truck buyers are willing to adopt new technology if it matches their expectations. In mid-2017 only 25% of Ford F-150's sold had a V8 engine.

Its 23 now but this shows 30 mpg by 2025. And that being average not what the best are doing.

[teoman]

Those graphs and numbers show very good progress, however, the repair costs of these vehivles will increase dramatically.

A vehicle that is too expensive to repair the moment the warranty runs out does not seem smart to me. Unless vehicles are sold with a 25 year warranty.