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Old 03-19-2013, 04:09 PM   #411 (permalink)
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actually I disagree. while your right nothing is free we can get PRETTY DARNED CLOSE to free or at least less than what we spend now by a massive margin.

IT IS possible for us to build a $14,000 electric car with no subsidies. for a very modest around ($1200) you can put a grid tie in and enough solar panels on your garage to result in your NEVER having to pay a dime for any fuel to drive your electric car until such time as you need to replace those solar panels (30-40 years) or replace that battery (20-25 years for NIMH packs around 8-10 years for lithium)

if you do the math on that car loan with those solar panels that is shockingly scarily close to "free" as close as your gonna get without stealing it. this scares the living crap out of them.

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Old 03-19-2013, 06:06 PM   #412 (permalink)
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$14,000 electric car = the old 200 mph carb.

Please clarify/define clearly each term in your third sentence.....

I'll even hold back the obvious comments until you do.
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Old 03-19-2013, 06:11 PM   #413 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerys View Post
IT IS possible for us to build a $14,000 electric car with no subsidies.
Really? Good luck with that.

Not a car with acceptable performance, anyway. I would know.
A decent (20kWh+ pack) is going to cost you <$10K alone.
+Car
+Controller
+Motor
+Wiring, cables, fuses, odds and ends, etc.
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:01 PM   #414 (permalink)
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fine. First ALL of this info is independently verifiable. doing so is your duty not mine. you don't have to take me at my word but you will need to do your own research if its not enough its all public information.

to estimate the full RETAIL price of an electric car if built with the objective of economy car economy being as cheap as possible no frills not fuel economy.

this car would have NO transmission. it would be direct drive (electric motor drive shaft to differential to wheels) it would not have the greatest acceleration or top speed but WOULD keep up with traffic would have tolerable acceleration (around what a minivan can do) and would go 70-80mph if you wanted too. the motor tech IS available to do this today. (it was not 15 year ago hence the ev1 had a 2 speed transmission IIRC)

if you want a performance car your going to pay a performance price go buy a tesla. this is for the AVERAGE JOE american who is suffering and needs a break.

First what is the cheapest full retail price no subsidy car you can buy. this is pretty easy there are a couple examples. an easy one is the nissan versa I believe. $9550 brand new cash out the door. (lets not forget this is no where near the cheapest next year elio motors will release their car full retail $6800)

so we have the basis for what full retail is on a car.

NOW we are going to REMOVE and throw out the following components.

Engine. Transmission. Cooling system. Smog System, Emissions system. Exhaust system. alternator and related components. power steering and related components. oil system and related components. ECU and related components. etc.. etc..

IE a "glider" as they call it in the industry.

how much "value" did we just strip from the car. Most mechanics I speak with say about 80-85% of the value of the car was just removed so you have essentially a $2000 glider. this is actually not too far off the mark from other examples of "glider" prices.

but to keep this fair and to account for unknown variables in labor and costs I am going to use 50% just to be on the ultra safe and accurate side of the equation.

so $4775 (this is full retail not cost) this is our electric car glider.

now the other "big" expense is the battery. this is a know value. GM and Ovonics announced publicly their success at being able to bring the E95 NIMH large format pack to market at a price (not cost but a full retail consumer price) of $4500.

that is the price of the battery.

NOW you can google this yourself but a good estimate is about $2000 for the motor and $2000 for the controller (prices range from $1500 to $5000 for each of these components remember we are going for economy here so on the low end I chose $2000 to be in a "safe" ballpark conservative value.

The charger will cost you about $500.

so the TOTAL full retail price of this car is $4775 + $4500 + $2000 + $2000 + $500

now mind you this is ULTRA conservative. the prices quotes for the motor and controller are current hobby niche grade components. MASS PRODUCE these parts on an automotive scale and they become EVEN CHEAPER and probably by quite a lot but again I wanted a realistic value you could research and validate the numbers from.

Total full retail MSRP price $13,775

this is a economy grade 4 door mid size sedan with an average range potential of around 100 miles to a charge.

NOW as to the lifespan of the battery. Ovonics rated the batteries at 250,000 miles to 80% SOC. this means after 250,000 miles the battery will still retain 80% of its original capacity. (so if you got 100 miles range new after 250,000 miles you can expect 80 miles range)

this is VERY conservative and real world testing shows this to be hugely under estimated. toyota test a rav4ev using this battery to 300,000 miles with ZERO relevant degradation in battery capacity. multiple in the hands of regular citizens rav4ev's with over 150,000 miles on the original 10-15 year old battery packs show ZERO measurable degradation in battery capacity. so you can safely say they are good for 300,000 miles and the real world data backs this up.

the average person drives 12,500 miles a year that is 25 YEARS before they would eve have to THINK about a battery replacement.

the Nimh battery has a capacity of 26kw/hours and this will average you around 80-110 miles per charge (as per existing real world rav4ev owners driving usage)

so 100 miles per charge is a good metric to do some basic math on.

lets go. at 12,500 miles per year you will need 3300 kw of power per year to run your electric car on average.

a 1200watt grid tie in is $250 shipped (ebay brand new not used)

you can buy solar panels of 240watt capacity for around $150 to $250 a piece so lets use $200 each and you need 4 but lets get 5 to be safe.

if we assume 10 hours a day sunlight. now lets drop that to 8 to account for low light and cloudy weather. and lets drop 15 days from the year to further account for weather and make our estimate more accurate.

so 5 panels 240watts per hour each x 8 x 350 gets you 3360 minimum kw per year. enough to easily cover the average persons 12,500 miles a year. you will likely end up with far more power produced than this that will simply reduce your electric bill. (47 states currently have buy back programs for cost avoided solar savings so your not trying to charge the car with the solar your just offsetting the kw's you use for the car with solar you "sell" back to the grid. if you use 3300kw and generate 3300kw your net cost is ZERO.

so $13,775 for the car and you pay $1250 and put the solar panels and tie in on your home.

the presumption here would be to help support this program the government would do what it does now. I DO NOT like subsidies so lets use a tax free subsidity. 0% interest loans. if you have 720 or better credit you can already get 0% auto loans.

7 year 0% loan is $164 a month.

average person gets 22mpg at $4 a gallon or $189 a month in gasoline.

the car is FREE for all intents and purposes IE your new loan payment is "less than" what your currently spending right now in gasoline every month (obvious "WE tend to get better than average but all these values are for the average)

for example I personally spend around $230 a month in fuel at 60mpg yearly average $4 a gallon in my geo metro. double that for my tracker (32mpg) but I would NEED $3000 in solar panels if I wanted to fully offset my fuel costs to charge the car.

none of this is blue sky or fictional or fantasy. besides the battery this is all off the shelf stuff you can look up yourself.

this is why GM killed it. THIS scares the crap out of them. I mean LOOK at it right now. we already have TWO manufacturers making $28,800 no subsidy electric cars with VERY EXPENSIVE lithium ion battery packs (Miev and Leaf)

these cars are only $15k away from what I describe above and they are loaded with not needed features amenities etc.. they are NOT bare bones economy cars.

if you have any questions about my figures please by all means ask away if its a reasonable sensible question.

NO this car is NOT POSSIBLE with lithium batteries. they are too short lived with far too high a cost attached to them. this is only possible (currently) with NIMH battery tech.

I don't need luck. I ESTIMATE you could actually build one with an MSRP of around $10,000 full retail NO SUBSIDIES. I "padded" my values by quite a bit so you can't argue they are fictional and making them easily verified.

Last edited by Nerys; 03-19-2013 at 07:09 PM..
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:12 PM   #415 (permalink)
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BTW you don't need solar panels at all. I just added that to "rub in" just how damned cheap an EV can be but if you were to simply "BUY" the power to charge your car it would cost you on average $330 a year or less than $28 a month. I can't even fill my METRO gas tank for that much money ($37 to fill the metro once)

even the nissan leaf is still about the cheapest brand new car you can buy if you calculate a 10 year TRC (total real cost) for me driving like I do 40,000 miles a year the 10 year TRC for the leaf is $41,800. that includes interest solar panels and one replacement battery BUT ALSO includes $9,000 in tax/rebate benefits.

as a comparison the 10year TRC on a Prius is nearly $70,000 and the VOLT is the most expensive car I have calculated so far $98,500 !!

btw the 10 year TRC on the nissan Versa at 36mpg is $58,769

even a geo metro can't quite beat the leaf at 50mpg and a retail cost of $7500 (that is the sticker price for my xfi) its 10 year TRC is $43,250

this of course assumes the leaf battery lasts 5 years (I factored in one battery repalcement in the leafs 10 year TRC :-)

Last edited by Nerys; 03-19-2013 at 07:19 PM..
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:51 PM   #416 (permalink)
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GEM/Polaris EVs are <$14k I think; used far cheaper than that. They're more of a neighborhood car though I think.
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:54 PM   #417 (permalink)
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I was going to suggest starting a new thread, but maybe the corral is where it should stay.
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Old 03-19-2013, 08:02 PM   #418 (permalink)
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you know an honest question was asked. I spent an awful lot of my time and energy to give a decent honest informative reply. I hope I am wrong in thinking your post was "flat out dismissal" ?? unless I misunderstand the usage of the word corral?
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:58 PM   #419 (permalink)
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Yes, flat out dismissal. I appreciate your effort but you are off.

Manufacturers could easily build an economical EV for $14K. But they would sell it for $31,125...AKA...iMiev. It's the same way the $9550 Versa costs maybe $3000 in parts for Nissan to build.

You have to remember that the cost of parts added together doesn't determine the price of the car. Stuff like R&D, federal certification, EPA testing, lawsuits, recalls, etc. add a huge hit to the price. Just ask anyone who has worked as an engineer for a car manufacturer.

Go search evalbum.com for EVs in the $14K range. You will find cars that don't even come close to the goals you have in mind.
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Old 03-19-2013, 10:35 PM   #420 (permalink)
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you did not read what I said. $13,775 is NOT COST. its FULL RETAIL.

those cars don't come close because they can not use the NIMH battery. you seem to lack basic understanding of my entire point. THE BATTERY IS THE KEY. without the battery $28k really is about as cheap as you can do it with lithium batteries currently.

the "COST" of my EV would be more like $5000-$7000

I will say this again since you missed the multiple times I said it before.

my price is not only "FULL RETAIL" not cost but its HUGELY PADDED to be ultra conservative.

"Stuff like R&D, federal certification, EPA testing, lawsuits, recalls, etc. add a huge hit to the price. "

all that crap is built into the prices!!

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