AOL Media says hybrid owners aren't repeat buyers
 

Hybrid Buyers Aren't Repeat Buyers

True? If so, what up with that?

Frank -

The credits are one part of it. The Hybrids lost their "fast lane" HOV status in California, which also dropped their resale value.

And the gas price crunch did up the ante for fuel efficiency. Without that I don't think we would have gotten that first wave of Yaris/Fit/Versa subcompact models.

CarloSW2

That's right- out in Cali there are a few takers for small cars. The MidwestUHners haven't gotten that far yet.

Some additional information here: https://www.polk.com/company/news/on...gain_says_polk

You also have to look at what the non Prius hybrids that are being sold are, hybrid Ford Escapes, Hybrid Toyota Camery, why would I pay extra to buy a 28mpg Toyota Highlander hybrid? or a 21mpg Cadillac Escalade Hybrid??? I see them driving around and wonder if the owners feel they were worth it.

But out of the vehicles that get better mileage, owners of those look like they tend to buy another, but that the owners of green washed SUV's don't.

This doesn't appear to mean much. Are the present hybrids already worn out? Until that is more clear (the economic value of the car having been used up) the Pollyannas will always skip around. From sedans to minivans to Suburbans . . just a soccer mommy phenomenon. And what of fleet use?

So what we know by the above is more about marketing.

It would also be interesting to see how the used market compares, do people keep their hybrid longer on average?

This is simple, Frank Lee. What happens is people get really excited about saving money at the pumps and associated whimsical aspects of fuel economy, buy a hybrid as a means of participating and then are ultimately dissatisfied when they realize a) most hybrids are not sports cars and cannot suddenly become one when you're angry or feeling saucy and b) fuel economy isn't always glamorous or trendy. People are generally subjects of social pressure and will base their consumption upon conventional wisdom, i.e. "a car should go fast, if it's slow it isn't working properly or is sub par". As to the social pressure bit, I have noticed that in spite of the significant increase in hybrids and evs on the market, the general public's interest has faded stateside. They don't understand that this dissolving interest is the direct cause of many of our oily economic woes as of late. When will the idiots learn?

The people to ask are the taxi folks who beat the snot of these things on a regular since they have become so popular in the major cities. Here in Chicago, every size of hybrid is in use right now.

Hybrids are rather new to the car market, so the people who buy hybrids to really save aren't really upgrading yet are they?

The fad-followers would be over-represented among hybrid buyers upgrading already.

I'd have to agree with Jakobnev. I'm totally happy with my Prius. I'm have no plans to replace it anytime soon.

Good point, jacobnev. I wonder how the stats break down, eg: I bet the "retention" stats are quite different for owners who bought hybrids specifically for their better efficiency.

Green Car Reports has a piece up about possible reasons explaining Polk's data:

Study Says Hybrid Owners Don

I liked this one as well: for those concerned with purely financial calculations on whether to get another hybrid (ROI), one major factor against them is the increasing number of non-hybrid vehicles that are offering better and better efficiency.

EG: Just 5 years ago, how many 40+ mpg (highway) vehicles were available in North America? Hardly any, and hybrids/diesels dominated. But look at how many are available now.

Now that the Ford Escape hybrid is going away, what do those drivers buy to replace it?
What does the growing family buy to replace the Prius that's now too small?

Hybrids aren't available in all market segments yet.

Anecdotal reports, anyone?

I only know of one person who has bought & sold a hybrid (Toyota Highlander Hybrid V6), and didn't replace it with another (Toyota Venza V6). He was constantly disappointed with its mileage - ie. never achieving the official figures - and that was definitely a factor.

When I asked if he'd ever gotten the "official" figures in any of his previous vehicles, he didn't really know, because he'd never paid close attention to it! (Roll eyes here.) I gently suggested he has probably never met or beat the official fuel economy figures in any of his vehicles due to driving style. He accepted this, but wasn't receptive to the idea of having to change his habits to accomplish it.

Coincidentally, I know someone else who has bought a Highlander hybrid (for its fuel economy), and is currently not happy with the mileage. Similar situation to above. Similar response on my part, and she's also not willing to change her habits.

What's that saying about horses and water? You can teach a horse to fish, but... aw, I forget.

You can hit an ass over the head with a 2x4 and... no, that's not it either. Or is it?

Prius V, Ford C-max hybrid, Camry Hybrid, Fusion hybrid, Sonata hybrid, Highlander hybrid

Seems like there are a couple of obvious problems with this. First, if it's only looking at new registrations, how do they know that all the people are replacing their hybrid? Maybe they're keeping it, and buying something else? (And the big question: why is this sort of data public, anyway?)

Second, if you exclude the Prius, there just aren't a lot of hybrid models around to be loyal to. That is, if I wanted to replace my current 2000 Insight with a similar hybrid, I couldn't, because there is nothing similar on the market.

Oh, and a third problem. The study is only looking at the owners who are buying replacement cars. Now isn't it likely that most of the people - hybrid owners or not - who are buying new cars are doing so because they don't like the car they have? Isn't it likely that the people who like their hybrids - especially the ones who bought them to save money - are simply keeping the one they have? I know I am.

Most all used Prii are sold by dealers or brokers, very few by owner, this is a sad reality the last 10 years or so.

People who buy hybrids for purely fiscal reasons have only two choices: drive it for more than five years or buy a Civic Hybrid. Even the vaunted Prius takes right around five years to break even. If they go past 5 they aren't a part of the study because they aren't buying a new anything. The Civic is a great tool, but not the kind of car that inspires you to buy another one, and there is no "step up" in Honda's catalog until the Accord Hybrid comes back. Lousy driving habits or not, I would bet that most of the people "jumping off the bandwagon" are people who bought a hybrid to save money without ever stopping to do the math on whether it would save them money beyond just at the pump.

On a side note, where is the Hybrid minivan? Please spare me the Prius V. It is a wagon at best, and many would look at it and just see a bigger hatchback. I mean like a Honda Odyssey Hybrid (although minivan prices are getting ridiculous as it is). Let Ford put the Fusion Hybrid drivetrain in their minivan, maybe with an ecoboost engine. Hell I would take a Chevy HHR. Just give me something that can fit a trip to Home Depot in the back with the seats down/out, yet get great fuel economy when it isn't loaded down. come to think of it, just give me one that can get above the low 20s.

Still rather limited choices in Hybrids. Here in Utah you can still drive in the HOV lane with one person in a Hybrid. Also get free parking downtown.

Amazing that my 6 year old Hybrid gets the same mileage as a new model. Not much gain in 6 years.

I think the CNG market has expanded to the point of some serious competition with Hybrids. At least until the CNG prices spike.

You can lead a horse to water, but if he wants a beer, he will drink a beer!

I agree with most comments and especially DieselBeetle.

From my observation, the people who buy hybrids tend to be wealthier. Wealthier people can afford to purchase more fuel. Once the novelty and good feelings of having saved the world have worn off from buying a hybrid, they are back to driving cars that excite them or otherwise project the image they are after. People are typically excited by power, and generally want to project a high class image.

CNG has a lot of potential, but I think it is a lot more prevalent in Utah than the rest of the country. It has been less than a year that the Civic GX has been for sale in Ohio after about 15(?) years in select other states. I doubt CNG will be going up in price significantly any time soon, though. Even if fracking was outlawed in the US, Canada will keep pumping it out and there are massive untapped supplies out there.

This is a good point. Polk (author of the study) is in the business of consulting to auto makers, so they talk about new vehicle sales.

And we know that anyone crunching a vehicle decision purely on the numbers (which implies getting good fuel economy is also a motivation) has already ruled out buying a brand new vehicle, hybrid or not, regardless of how wealthy they are.

Six years? Try 12: my 2000 Insight still gets better mpg than anything but a Tesla or Leaf. And the Leaf doesn't have enough range for my driving, and I can't fit two dogs and a backpack into a Tesla :-)

As a counter-point to this Polk announcement:

Sales of the hybrid Toyota Prius family doubled in April.

Source: U.S. car sales up in April on strength of small, fuel-efficient vehicles - NY Daily News

Compare my Fiesta to my brother's Prius. he bought the Prius for $14k with 29k miles. Paint was a little rough but it cleaned up fairly nice. Now 3 years later it has 80k miles. Not sure what it is worth but probably around 10K. Cost new probably 23-25K.

The Fiesta was 10 with salvage rebuilt title and 3770 miles. After 2k miles my average mileage is just over 46, EPA 38 highway. I don't do serious hypermiling just mostly non obvious stuff.

The fuel mileage on these two cars is very close to the same. The potential resale value is another thing altogether. A dead battery in the Prius is a dead Prius. A dead battery in my Fiesta is about $75.

What are both of the cars worth when they have 150k miles on them? The Fiesta may actually be worth more at that mileage. What is the value of a 2001 Prius and a 2001 Focus with 150 k miles (no Fiesta in the US in 2001)? Probably about the same.

Around here when gas prices spike you can see the change in the vehicle population on the road. Lots of people here bought smaller higher mileage cars in 2008-09 to get out of the real gas hogs. The pickup trucks got parked and the smaller car did most of the transportation jobs.

With cars reaching an average age of over 10 years, you have to consider the break even point in decades and the hybrids loose all of their cost premium over that period of time. At 33 MPG I need 3000 gallons of fuel to get to 100k miles. At 50 I need 2000.
Does the premium price justify the fuel saved? If the premium was $4K then you break even at 100k with the mileages given.

Unfortunately with the present state of the economy and little job security compared to decades ago, I doubt you will see people paying an extra several thousand dollars for a hybrid when the break even point is so far in the future, an uncertain future for sure.

Most would shop the used car market for an older car at a considerable price savings over new. This is demonstrated by the present state of the used car market. Find a nice one fairly priced and they are gone quickly.

regards
Mech

AOL media says a lot of things. Lets just leave it at that.

That's one example. Not an unrealistic one, but nor is mine:

Come drive up near D.C. You'll be getting mid 30s in the Fiesta and 50 in the Prius. Suddenly the almost equal mileage becomes quite a difference.

Also, I 100% believe the Prius is a nicer (and larger) car than the new Fiesta. Someone in search of good gas mileage/low cost of ownership may cross-shop them, but there are quite a few that would put the Fiesta in a lower class and not consider it.

FWIW, although the blue-book values seem to be somewhat close (Prius vs. Focus), I have never seen a Focus hold its value that well, while the Priuses I have looked at used all seemed to be priced quite high.

I lived right at Tyson's Corner and worked at American Service Center, 585 North Glebe Rd in Arlington in 1984, Mercedes and Ferrari dealer. I drove my 84 CRX 1.5 into work on route 123, Chain Bridge Road, and averaged 44 MPG in the CRX. I could come very close to that today in the Fiesta but I have no desire to live anywhere near DC. Tidewater is bad enough, but the wife refuses to live to far from a Wal Mart. If it was up to me I would live in the boonies.

There was a 2001 Prius with a bad hybrid battery (not operational) in the DC area for sale last fall, stayed on Craigslist for quite a while at an asking price of just over $2k. When the warranty on the hybrid battery ends most people are not really interested in the hybrids anymore. Recent gas prices have driven the prices of all economy cars up. Remember the Metro on ebay that sold for $8000 back in 2008 when gas got close to $4 a gallon last time. I think that was close to what it sold for new, and you will never see a 12-15 year old hybrid go for that kind of money.

Cars loaded with options are nice when they are new, but when you have window regulators costing $400 to replace, many cars die from "option death" when mechanically they are still in fairly good shape.

Look at the price of a 2000-05 Echo stripper compared to the Prius from the same year. The Echo is worth more until you get past 2003.

regards
Mech

Well, things have changed a lot since 1984 :) I'd be impressed to see 44mpg average from the Fiesta without serious hypermiling.

And I don't blame you for not wanting to live or drive here...

If you're getting 46 mpg with the Fiesta, you would easily be getting 60+ mpg with the Prius.

Yet (as with other problem cars) this just gives those of us who are mechanically inclined a chance at some sweet deals. Replacing the hybrid battery with a salvage one is probably less work, and less expensive, than replacing say a bad transmission...

For those who are willing to work on vehicles there are always opportunities. I used to take advantage of those opportunities and still do, but to a much lesser extent. I will be getting my 1987 Yamaha SRX 250 on the road shortly. Probably on antique plates since it eliminates tag renewals, taxes, and the insurance for me is $89 a year. I might even go aero and try for 100 MPG on that bike. I think it has the potential at about 300 pounds with a 6 speed tranny and a two stage carb with some VX like swirl at low throttle openings, before the second barrel comes on line at higher throttle openings.

Daox, I appreciate your confidence in my abilities although I doubt I would get 60 MPG in a Prius at 67 MPH average speed on I95 with about 720 pounds of payload.

I also tend to shy away from used parts when it comes to a hybrid battery that is that age. I just feel like with the cost of the used part are you really ahead if all of the batteries are reaching their life expectancy? Not meaning to start an argument, my position is supported by the retained value of hybrids over 10 years old, which is why I feel when the battery warranty is gone you are looking at a potential repair that would cost as much as the car was worth.

Look at it this way. a 2001 Prius with 101k miles in excellent shape, versus a 95 Civic VX with the same mileage in excellent shape. Which one would you pay more for, even though the non hybrid is 50% older.

When I retired from working on cars, for a living, over a decade ago I decided that I wanted to own cars that were totally reliable and I was willing to pay a premium for that reliability. The Fiesta fills the bill perfectly. In fact I have a 90 day unconditional warranty on the car and have had absolutely no problem. I did find a couple of minor things, like a cracked dipstick handle. The friend who fixed it told me "just go out there and grab one off one of the other two Fiesta's we have. Took about 30 seconds.

regards
Mech

I will take my 2000 Honda Insight, which Honda had the "insight" to make drivable without a working battery. It is also capable of better than Prius numbers without an operational system, although the 12v won't charge and you can't carry more than 2.

Yes it will :). Mine does.

Sweet! I didn't think it did. That may be a good thing as the frequency of my recals is going up. I should buy a charger.