BP's Stunning Warning: "Every Oil Storage Tank Will Be Full In A Few Months"
 

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BP's Stunning Warning: "Every Oil Storage Tank Will Be Full In A Few Months"

BP's Stunning Warning: "Every Oil Storage Tank Will Be Full In A Few Months" | Zero Hedge





"Peak oil" my ass...

The world is awash in oil.

It has been and will be for the foreseeable future...


However, that doesn't mean it shouldn't be conserved.

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You can blame those dang ecomodders :D. WAI, grille block and block heater got me over 60 today in freezing temps.

regards
mech

EXACTLY!!!!!!:eek::rolleyes::D;):p

Why? If there's too much oil on the market, just turn the shutoff valve on some of your wells. Which I expect Saudi Arabia to do any time now...

The "Peak" is real. What you are seeing now is the intersection of the rise in alternative oil sources with the "Peak" and decline of more traditional sources and the effects of an economic growth slowdown on oil demand.

That said... we'll go through one peak, switch to another source, go through that peak, and hope that there'll be another peak after that. In effect, we're going to be seeing more of a plateau, but the gist of the theory, that oil supply is finite, is still correct. We're already on the downslope of production for "conventional" (read: cheap) oil, and once Saudi Arabia is trhough throwing its oil-glut temper tantrum, we'll be right back at $60-$80 fracking oil, until that runs out and we have to transition to riskier-to-develop $100 oil sources.

Iran has already said it's willing to talk terms with Saudi Arabia. And hopefully the trigger point for the number of US wells closed has been reached on the Kingdom's game plan charts...

In the meantime, oil companies are shedding jobs like trees in autumn. Not a pretty sight if one of those jobs is yours!

I believe Peak Oil is real; they are already having to refine crap oil stocks vs the good stuff they used to get.... because of the LACK of Ecomodders. :/

Maybe it's time to remove the 6.5 Diesel and install that 500 Cadillac I have always wanted. LOL

We have another 100 years left. If we don't use this energy wealth to transition to a clean economy before we pass peak civilization will....?
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https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...69409817_o.jpg
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OPEC mafia is doing some sort of financial terrorism. Again.

... searching through the phone book for swimming pool installers....

Leave some in the ground. The're not making any more. Save it for later. They are going to need it. When will fossil fuel become a world heritage commodity that is not owned by any one corporation?

I read that when they do hit capacity, prices will temporarily crash.

Do you think that anyone living in that small town where gas hit fifty cents a gallon went out and bought an SUV only to have prices quickly multiply?

"Spending is good for the economy."

Sure glad I ride bicycles. I did actually put a few drops of oil on the chain today. Will that help empty the containers?

JJ

Not if it is whale oil! :)

Saying the world is awash in oil is like saying there's no global warming every time there is a day with below average temps.

A very, very short-term blip or aberration vs the big picture.

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That's my opinion. Based on what I see, hear and read.

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You're not reading much about the oil market, then. :D Inelastic supply during the mega-pricey oil years (2006-2008 precrash and 2011 - 2013 post) point to capacity constraints for Middle Eastern oil. Some of Saudi's smaller well s have already run dry. Certain OPEC members are already on the downswing of their production curve. And older "shale" wells in the US started seeing big drops in production after just two years.

Nothing is forever.

It's heartening to see that even the "LOLWUT? Emissions?!? CHILLAX!!!" Chinese government is taking pollution and energy independence seriously enough to enact widespread programs to transition from fossil fuels (coal and oil) to renewable energy and EVs. I doubt they can kick the habit completely, but they're investing in non-fossil power at a breakneck pace.

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I would have hoped that we could use that tremendous energy wealth for something useful, like fusion, or setting up permanent orbital solar arrays, or maybe starting an asteroid mining and power empire... instead, we're wasting it on gridlock traffic, iPhones and internet pornography.

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Not that I'm complaining about the internet...

I think the more sophisticated macroeconomic analysis of peak oil suggests that around the peak, or just after the peak in production, prices will get very volatile.

Volatile doesn't just mean higher and faster, it means sudden jumps up AND down as the market goes all herky jerky on both sides of the supply/demand equation.

I am personally a soft landing peak oil person. Alternatives and conservation smooth out the bumps and we transition to a lot more renewables in a fairly peaceful process.

So, two years from now, don't come crying to me and be all surprised when fuel prices shoot up again.

I think there is also some international politics and economic sabotage going on. The Saudies could see that with russian production heading to all time highs, and non-conventional (shale) oil production in the US and Canada rising to all time highs, it was going to hurt their bottom line. They also could not control russia and north america.

So they let the prices drift high enough that russia and the US invest a bunch of money in producing oil that makes no economic sense unless the price is over $65 or $70 a barrel.

Once all those companies are commited, the Saudies flood the market and laugh as the russians and americans cry while they lose piles of money and see their economy crash.

That will lead to a much slower build up of non-conventional oil production the next go-round. And Saudi laughs all the way to the bank.

US oil production vs. active oil rigs
 

This is an interesting chart. It shows the dramatic increase in U.S. shale oil production (rig count) and following that, the rapid decline in rig count once oil prices crashed due to oversupply.

Tough times since late 2014 for anyone making a living in the oil industry. (I personally know people in my little central Canadian city who have lost jobs as a result -- suppliers of equipment to Alberta and the U.S.)

The big question is: what is the time delay between the drop in rigs and the inevitable drop in production?

http://ecomodder.com/forum/attachmen...1&d=1455302909
(From: Oil Jumps As US Rig Count Plunges Most Since April | Zero Hedge)

It seems to be about a 1.5 year lag on the way up.

Once extraction of "expensive oil" starts to fall (not just in the U.S., but in every country that produces expensive oil) and stockpiles begin to be drawn down, prices will shoot up again.

Which ties to solarguy's question: what is the time delay between prices going back up and drilling re-commencing?

Boom & bust, baby.

Well it IS awash in EXTRACTED oil for the next several MONTHS.

After that I'm betting against you. :p

That's what we thought was happening around 08, and then US Shale came in... but I have no doubt that we'll experience the same thing once the expensive stuff starts sputtering out, as well.

I think this:

Until the prices stabilize at a higher level for a relatively long period of time, I think investors will be wary of "expensive" non-conventional oil. Maybe a year or more of steady price increases?

I think you give them too much credit. (No pun intended!)

The minute profit margin re-appears is when the next boom starts.

Funny, I could say the same applies to you. ;) :D


Only some...???

I think there is a lot, a lot more...



That's the cycle. It will take out the small guys and the Johnny-come-lately.
As the smaller and insolvent oil drilling companies go bust, the larger oil companies will more than likely acquire their assets for pennies on the dollar. In many cases that will probably include the drilling and mineral rights for those deposits. This will further consolidate their control of the supply and output.



Extracted or not, the oil is still there.

What kinda odds are you giving...??? :p


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Volume of the Earth 260,000,000,000 cubic miles.

Oil extracted from the Earth 169 cubic miles.

How much left?

regards
mech

Only time will tell. 2017 is likely when we will find out.

As solarguy says, the Saudi gameplan seems to be to put everyone off of investing. Granted, the capital to reinvest is there, but nobody wants to be the one holding the potato when the French Fry market drops. :D

I read way too much about oil.

My job is merely to report on cars.

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I don't doubt we will still have oil reserves long after we're all dead and gone. The only question is the economic viability of extracting that oil.

It's similar to gold... we have millions of tons of gold floating around in seawater. But it might as well not be there for all the good it does us.

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Granted, we could eventually find out that oil deposits are naturally formed abiotically, meaning that "dry" wells will eventually get replenished as new oil seeps upward into them... rather than seeping sideways from untapped deposits... but we're still facing the same issue as with ground water... it appears that our rate of extraction still exceeds the rate of replenishment.

I wonder if the tanks filled to the brim include the US strategic reserves. It would be a good time to replenish the reserves to maximum capacity considering the fact that it could provide a buffer to the next price jump. I guess it's just wishful thinking to believe any govt tentacle could actually be run competently.

The Saudis need $80 a barrel to cover the cost of their normal expenditures which have exploded since OPEC was formed. Now we see no such cooperation in that area, greed is destroying the cartel. Wild price fluctuations are the direct result and many of those futures buyers have likely been burned quite badly if this "cheap" cycle continues.

AS far as fuel is concerned, for me it's cheaper than ever, even compared to the penny a mile it cost me 50 years ago. Wonder what the adjustment for the US taxable mileage based business deduction will be for THIS year.

regards
mech

Funny!:D
Oil and coal is fossilized biological matter that was once alive on the SURFACE of the earth or oceans and then died and got burried 300 million years ago.
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There is plenty of molten nickel and iron in the core of the earth if you want that.
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How much left? Supply and demand will form a platue after 2030 as we frac the last drops of oil and gas from every crack in the surface of the Earth. That will last another 50 years until it inevitibly falls off the top and production slides down over the next 100 years. Forever. Coal and gas will be around a bit longer to help keep us warm.
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Anyone that really thinks a starving and freezing humanity won't level every mountain and frac every crack for it's burried treasure is completely wasting their time protesting when they should be focusing on how to use this energy wealth to transform civilization to a sustainable carbon free economy.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predic...ng_of_peak_oil
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The oil economy will transition to a solar and lunar economy, direct solar, hydro (indirect solar), and tidal (lunar). The two most cost effective will be hydro (been around over 2k years) and solar, which can easily supply the power needs of this planet.

Global warming will then transition to global cooling as more surface heating is redirected to power generation and the carbon levels will drop as quickly as they rose.

All the "sky is falling" fear mongering is basically a money grab, if you believe that supply has been 50% exhausted (peak oil). Then after we spend a significant part of the planets net worth on rectification of global warming, the tactic will change or become obsolete as technology and efficiency progress to reduce the watt hours per mile per passenger cost of transportation to way below 100, possibly below 10 in examples already developed technologically ((e3t).

This progression will occur because it has NO other potential pathway. My invention will be a part of that pathway far into the future, possibly centuries beyond my lifespan.

It's going to happen and at some point in that process boring holes in the ground,or seabeds to extract ancient plant and animal material will either run out or become cost INEFFECTIVE as other alternatives evolve to replace fossil fuels.

A great example is the Central America discovery and salvage. The "ship of gold" that foundered off Hatteras in a storm in 1857with most of the San Francisco mints gold production.

Before the salvage operation a mint state 63 1857 S double eagle was a $40,000 coin.
After the salvage operation the value of that coin had dropped by 90% +. That's what happens when a very limited supply is overwhelmed by a "new discovery".

Have we reached the threshold of that event with oil? Probably not, but you can bet all of the percieved wealth of future oil extraction will depend on the perception of available reserves, which is controlled by organizations whose incentive is obviously a perception of rarity.

I think the current total production, from the first drop until today. the 169 cubic miles would cover the planet in a layer less than1/4 inch deep, even though we drill many miles underground for the product, a product which the world population would have been much different without, both financially and geopolitically.

Those who control the dissemination of information have a powerful incentive to CREATE a perception of rarity. If you swallow THEIR propaganda, you will pay a heavy price.

Much like the victim of a robbery who reports the theft as many times more than it actually was, knowing that the thief will never be trusted even if caught, takes advantage of even that situation for more financial gain.

regards
mech

Really sorry to hear you talk this way.
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It will be possible to transition to a fossil fuel free existence. And we could probably do it fairly seamlessly. If we start now and pull out all the stops. Similar to the focused labor effort in the USA during WW2. It takes 100 years to make this radical of a change to the world wide infrastructure and economy.
And it takes a huge amount ICE powered machinery to mine the resources and build the Giga factories that are needed to build this new world of alternative energy.
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If we really wait and do business as usual for the next 75 years until the then diminishing crude oil supply pushes these projects out of reach there will be a crash and a big correction.

We didn't leave the Stone Age for a lack of stones; nor did we stop using whale oil for a lack of whales.

One can only hope. And try. To convince the still multitudinous Ostriches and Deniers.
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Spread the word.

I can't think of too many instances (OK... none off hand) where humanity proactively changed course for the better.

When the Florida Keys freeze over, which brings into question the prediction in 1983 or so that those same coral reefs were going to die due to ocean water temperatures sustained at less than 60 degrees after surviving for millions of years, longer than the existence of the human race.

Note, I did not chop your post up into segments and omit the first important paragraph.

Reefs are still there.

regards
mech

Back to aero.

It's already possible to refine vegetable oils and animal fats, either as a replacement for petroleum or blended with it, and IIRC it's currently done by the Finnish Neste Oil (producing biogasoline, synthetic Diesel, biopropane and bioplastics) and by the American Propel Fuels (at least their synthetic green Diesel is made out of refined oils and fats). Since processed meats are consumed more frequently than fresh meat in the United States, sure there's a lot of locally-available feedstock for biofuels that wouldn't require major adaptations to be used and then become a good option to start a transition from fossil to renewable energy sources.