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Old 07-14-2021, 02:17 PM   #191 (permalink)
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The act of publishing doesn't guarantee a value-added product for the reader. On the contrary.
Think that one through.

Successful predictions of the time and location of earthquakes have no value?

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Old 07-14-2021, 02:25 PM   #192 (permalink)
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going back

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Originally Posted by redneck View Post
.

More doom and gloom...




Moon wobble to bring surge in coastal flooding in 2030s, NASA study predicts

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/07/13/u...rnd/index.html



Original paper.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...ww.cbsnews.com



Note that the timeline in the graph begins in 2020.

🤔


Why not show a graph going back a hundred years?

You know, for context...


😈

>

.
right now, it may just be a budget constraint.
the models would have to be adjusted for changes in any and all variables which would be different back then.
Feedbacks. total solar irradiance. orbital mechanics. freshwater pulses. Ocean salinity. Density. Currents. Upwellings. Downwellings. Equatorial heat transport. Wind. Sea surface temperature. Vertical deep mixing to 3000-meters. El Nino/ La Nina. Albedo. Evaporation. Aerosols. Cloud condensation nuclei. carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, CFCs, HFCs, permafrost, glaciers, ice caps, whitecaps, snow cover, vegetation cover, forest cover, rain forest cover, other anthropogenic activities...................
Some past data would not pass muster with today's standards for accuracy. ( solar photometer data for instance )
One general circulation model runs to 36,000-pages of code, if I remember correctly.
It's very expensive directly, requiring man-years of time.
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Old 07-14-2021, 02:35 PM   #193 (permalink)
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value

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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Think that one through.

Successful predictions of the time and location of earthquakes have no value?
Any value attributed to successful earthquake prediction would have to be weighed against damage due to deflection away from real causality in other arenas, the consequences far outweighing anything from the quakes, wasting public monies on rabbit holes, and creating an atmosphere of indifference to real existential challenges.
And I'll have to be convinced of their efficacy in quake prediction.
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Old 07-14-2021, 04:10 PM   #194 (permalink)
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Any value attributed to successful earthquake prediction would have to be weighed against damage due to deflection away from real causality in other arenas, ..., and creating an atmosphere of indifference to real existential challenges.
Successful prediction blinds us to the real existential challenges Since you haven't been blinded () what challenges are those?

Quote:
Feedbacks. total solar irradiance. orbital mechanics. freshwater pulses. Ocean salinity. Density. Currents. Upwellings. Downwellings. Equatorial heat transport. Wind. Sea surface temperature. Vertical deep mixing to 3000-meters. El Nino/ La Nina. Albedo. Evaporation. Aerosols. Cloud condensation nuclei. carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, CFCs, HFCs, permafrost, glaciers, ice caps, whitecaps, snow cover, vegetation cover, forest cover, rain forest cover, other anthropogenic activities...................
Word salad. If you had to pick just one to explain, which would it be?
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Old 07-14-2021, 04:41 PM   #195 (permalink)
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what, pick

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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Successful prediction blinds us to the real existential challenges Since you haven't been blinded () what challenges are those?



Word salad. If you had to pick just one to explain, which would it be?
The challenges would be 'everything' connected with what S-O would hope to displace, should the general public buy into all the alternate explanations.
Anthropomorphic climate forcing would be at the top of the list.
There are already climate refugees from loss of mountain glaciers. Entire food production for billions are threatened should seasonal rivers stop flowing and mountain lakes dry up. Which is already happening.
If the masses believe solar irradiance or magnetic fields are responsible, we'll lose the planet.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
' word salad' was to shine a little light onto the complexity of climate models, and what climatologists would have to include in order to 'predict' future or past phenomena. Everything I listed ( and more ) would have to be included in a backwards look of coastal flooding a hundred years ago. The Earth that existed back then no longer exists.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't believe S-O ever reliably predicted anything. If they'd like to offer proper evidence, I'm all eyes.
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Old 07-14-2021, 06:01 PM   #196 (permalink)
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Anthropomorphic climate forcing would be at the top of the list.
Anthropomorphic climate forcing won't forestall an on-coming Ice Age, but it might blunt some of the effects.
Quote:
I don't believe S-O ever reliably predicted anything. If they'd like to offer proper evidence, I'm all eyes.
Try watching the space weather report for a few days. It starts with the eight minute to 3 day delay due to the transit time to Earth.


https://quakewatch.net/

duckduckgo.com/?q=chinese+satellite+to+monitor+earthquakes

Chyna put up a satellite to watch for the electromagnetic precursors to an earthquake, following the papers Ben Davidson and other published.
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Old 07-14-2021, 06:12 PM   #197 (permalink)
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climate

Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Anthropomorphic climate forcing won't forestall an on-coming Ice Age, but it might blunt some of the effects.

Try watching the space weather report for a few days. It starts with the eight minute to 3 day delay due to the transit time to Earth.


https://quakewatch.net/

duckduckgo.com/?q=chinese+satellite+to+monitor+earthquakes

Chyna put up a satellite to watch for the electromagnetic precursors to an earthquake, following the papers Ben Davidson and other published.
An ice age is probably the last thing climatologists would be thinking about.
Once sea ice is gone, and the algae which feeds underneath it, there goes the entire marine food web.
To my knowledge, space weather has absolutely nothing to do with anything of concern.
Especially with respect to earthquakes or volcanism.
gotta go. 'see' you all Friday.
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Old 07-14-2021, 09:30 PM   #198 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
right now, it may just be a budget constraint.
the models would have to be adjusted for changes in any and all variables which would be different back then.
Feedbacks. total solar irradiance. orbital mechanics. freshwater pulses. Ocean salinity. Density. Currents. Upwellings. Downwellings. Equatorial heat transport. Wind. Sea surface temperature. Vertical deep mixing to 3000-meters. El Nino/ La Nina. Albedo. Evaporation. Aerosols. Cloud condensation nuclei. carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, CFCs, HFCs, permafrost, glaciers, ice caps, whitecaps, snow cover, vegetation cover, forest cover, rain forest cover, other anthropogenic activities...................
Some past data would not pass muster with today's standards for accuracy. ( solar photometer data for instance )
One general circulation model runs to 36,000-pages of code, if I remember correctly.
It's very expensive directly, requiring man-years of time.

Budget constraints ? It seems you’re making excuses for them for not showing the historical trend in sea rise levels.

I found it in less than a minute. Unfortunately, it only goes back to 1992 when the satellite first started taking measurements.



It shows a steady incline. No sudden changes. No sudden rise. No hockey stick.

But guess what. They have already adjusted data for at least one variable. And a significant one at that.

In one of the previous locked threads I posted a article that said they had a serious problem with the algorithm programmed in the first satellite’s measurement equipment and that the data may need to be scrapped. But, adjust they did.

So, who even knows if the baseline or the new algorithm is correct.

Just remember ...

Data can be manipulated.

Just like votes...




>

.
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Disclaimer...

I’m not a climatologist, aerodynamicist, virologist, physicist, astrodynamicist or marine biologist..

But...

I play one on the internet.

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Old 07-15-2021, 03:34 PM   #199 (permalink)
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Hmm almost looks like the "sea level" rise dips during and right after solar minimum years.
Fascinating.
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Old 07-16-2021, 11:31 AM   #200 (permalink)
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quakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Anthropomorphic climate forcing won't forestall an on-coming Ice Age, but it might blunt some of the effects.

Try watching the space weather report for a few days. It starts with the eight minute to 3 day delay due to the transit time to Earth.


https://quakewatch.net/

duckduckgo.com/?q=chinese+satellite+to+monitor+earthquakes

Chyna put up a satellite to watch for the electromagnetic precursors to an earthquake, following the papers Ben Davidson and other published.
1) there's a presumption of causality between solar weather and earthquakes, unrecognized by the entire scientific community.
2) there's another assumption that GlobalSecurity.org would know anything about earthquakes, or the significance of any space-launched scientific monitoring equipment package.
3) that Ben Davidson had anything to do with precipitating a Chinese space- probe program is quite dubious and would require better evidence.
4) the shown diagram does not provide geographic specificity, as to latitude and longitude ( to arcsecond precision ) of each predicted event.
5) the table does not include other factors, definitely known to be associated with seismological events, which might also explain observed events.
6) the Sun's mean average magnetic flux is quite weak, and falls of as the square of the distance between Sun and Earth. The solar wind travels at variable-velocity, with corotating interactive regions of compressions, shockwaves, rarifactions, reverberations , with a mean average of 892,800-mph, but it will be whatever it is.
7) magnetic Parker spirals are cast off as a function of the Sun's Coriolis effect, and their 'position-location' cannot be predicted spatially or temporally, with respect to how they might intercept the orbit of Earth. In order to have any chance to 'hit' the Earth, they need to leave the Sun near the solar ecliptic.
8) liquid-phase, or plastic-phase magnetic materials cannot carry mechanical stress.
9) the inertia of Earth's lithosphere would absolutely dampen the effect of any transient, passing magnetic space anomaly attempting to act, magnetically, on magnetite or magnetofossils incorporated into Earth's tectonic plates.
10) take a rare-earth magnet from a computer hard drive and hold it near dirt, and see if dirt dislodges itself and flies into the air to cling to the magnet. This is essentially what Ben Davidson is asking you to believe.

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