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Xist 07-31-2015 04:03 AM
Electric car tipping point
 
Geoff Ralson says there will come a point when electric cars become popular enough that gas stations start to close down, and then more and more people will decide to go electric, as there are fewer and fewer gas stations.

The Electric Car - Geoff's Blog

user removed 07-31-2015 06:05 AM
They took the pumps out of the 7-11 at the end of the neighborhood .3 mile from my house.

Remember the predictions about battery tech following CPU processor tech, "double the capacity in just 18 months"

What they forgot is the cost and the fact it just is not happening, or we would have no range anxiety with 500 mile battery packs that weighed 100 pounds.

regards
mech

Daox 07-31-2015 08:29 AM
It'll happen, just not that fast. Its already become WAY cheaper than it used to be.

Fat Charlie 07-31-2015 08:53 AM
There's a big difference between micro and macro issues with gas stations.

Any individual gas station has a bunch of headaches dealing with inventory, taxes, Big Oil and Big Environment- and then God forbid you go up a nickel a gallon after a hurricane. They don't even make money on the gas, it's just a draw to get people in so they can sell coffee, beer and potato chips.

But with all the headaches involved, having gas for sale out front is generally worth it- if one store in town drops out, the other guys in town will clean up until someone else decides to cough up for some pumps and join the fray.

pgfpro 07-31-2015 10:50 AM
When I got my driver license in 1977 there wasn't very many gas stations around. I think its probably gone up 90% since then? People did just fine then and didn't have a OMG I might run out of gas because I can't find a gas station moment.lol So I think it will be a while before we see this.

Also they are saying the cost of electricity in my area is going to go up substantially because of the drought we been having for the last 5 years. We get all or most of our electricity from hydroelectric. This year is really bad, all our rivers and streams are extremely low.:eek: Plus in the NW this year were consuming a ton of electricity for AC. Its a record hot Summer.

cRiPpLe_rOoStEr 07-31-2015 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Charlie (Post 488538)
They don't even make money on the gas, it's just a draw to get people in so they can sell coffee, beer and potato chips.
Don't forget the cigarettes. And they do make a lot of money in the "convenience" items, which are often more than double the price at a supermarket.

darcane 07-31-2015 12:40 PM
Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:
  • It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
  • It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
  • It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.
  • It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
  • It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
  • It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
  • It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pgfpro (Post 488542)
When I got my driver license in 1977 there wasn't very many gas stations around. I think its probably gone up 90% since then? People did just fine then and didn't have a OMG I might run out of gas because I can't find a gas station moment.lol So I think it will be a while before we see this.
I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV. :)


Quote:
Originally Posted by pgfpro (Post 488542)
Also they are saying the cost of electricity in my area is going to go up substantially because of the drought we been having for the last 5 years. We get all or most of our electricity from hydroelectric. This year is really bad, all our rivers and streams are extremely low.:eek: Plus in the NW this year were consuming a ton of electricity for AC. Its a record hot Summer.

I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply

jamesqf 07-31-2015 12:54 PM
[QUOTE=darcane;488557]
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.

Now there are a couple of reasons why I won't be buying a Tesla (or likely any new car), unless someone develops a hack to remove that crap. I don't WANT a $%$@! user interface in my car, nor a navigation system, nor an internet connection.

Quote:
It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
Including the updates provided by industrious hackers :-) http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthrea...ems-32418.html

darcane 07-31-2015 01:23 PM
[QUOTE=jamesqf;488560]
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 488557)
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.

Now there are a couple of reasons why I won't be buying a Tesla (or likely any new car), unless someone develops a hack to remove that crap. I don't WANT a $%$@! user interface in my car, nor a navigation system, nor an internet connection.



Including the updates provided by industrious hackers :-) http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthrea...ems-32418.html
Ditto.

The "User interface" for a car is the steering wheel, pedals (3 of them), and shift lever.

Xist 07-31-2015 02:16 PM
I saw Internet and I wondered who was convinced they needed that. Some prefer streaming music to listening to the radio. Okay... At some point, I will finally reinstall Dad's Sirius from the Focus he sold me three years ago. I liked it, it just seems like I always have more important car projects. My friend who was stopped for DUI just because she is a terrible driver never puts down her phone. She claims that she is not messaging, she is doing music.

She is not using an app to play an instrument, so there is no reason to actively interact with the music. Honestly, as long as I have songs, I leave it alone. I just do not like commercials, but if that requires too much attention, I just turn it off.

Well, which is progressing faster, gas\hybrid or battery technology?

nimblemotors 07-31-2015 04:02 PM
I can be highly confident predicting the future, and that would be the predictions of the future will be wrong.

Electric cars are awesome, the problem has always been and continues to be the cost and capacity of batteries. We are now at a point they are viable, but need another 2x in capacity and 1/2 cost, to really get them widely accepted.

There is an easy fix for this issue, which is have a highly efficient car, instead of trying to convert highly inefficient gas cars into electric ones...like Tesla has done. Easy to create a good car that costs $100,000, particularly when you can spend $1 billion doing it.

ME_Andy 07-31-2015 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nimblemotors (Post 488575)
We are now at a point they are viable, but need another 2x in capacity and 1/2 cost, to really get them widely accepted.
That's a bit excessive. I'd say either/or would be fine. Or maybe just a 25% cost reduction.

pgfpro 07-31-2015 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 488557)
Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:
  • It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
  • It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
  • It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.
  • It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
  • It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
  • It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
  • It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?



I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV. :)





I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply
I'm with Avista. I have a friend that is a engineer on one of the Dams and have been talking to him about the water issues were having this year. He said the increase will be happening later this year. How much is unknown?
Lets just say its a major problem that is not being talked to much about.

As far as electric cars go what is the cost per mile now, based on the National average kWh?

UltArc 07-31-2015 11:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 488557)
Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:
  • It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
  • It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
  • It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.
  • It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
  • It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
  • It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
  • It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?



I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV. :)





I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply
I stopped reading this when he said iphones were advanced to the phones of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nimblemotors (Post 488575)
There is an easy fix for this issue, which is have a highly efficient car, instead of trying to convert highly inefficient gas cars into electric ones...like Tesla has done. Easy to create a good car that costs $100,000, particularly when you can spend $1 billion doing it.
Tesla makes their own cars...they do not convert gas cars. Isn't that the company you compare your car to? They are competing with BMW, Lexus, Benz, so on, as a rear wheel drive luxury vehicle. For what one gets buying a Tesla, it is a good/decent compared to the competition.

H-Man 08-01-2015 01:34 AM
Why does rear show up as purple in your post?

P-hack 08-01-2015 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by H-Man (Post 488614)
Why does rear show up as purple in your post?
For some reason, you have a url that highlights rear (I had to go out of my way to highlight it)...
i.e.
http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/electric-car-tipping-point-32476-2.html?highlight=rear

freebeard 08-01-2015 11:24 PM
Beyond infrastructure, the problematic scenario is to offer a $40K electric version of a $25K gas car, which is worth $15K one year later while the gas car is still worth $20K.

The challenge to 'Detroit' as we know it is Silicon Valley. Tesla isn't going away, and Faraday and Apple and Uber are sitting on piles of cash.

Quote:
Well, which is progressing faster, gas\hybrid or battery technology?
Gas/hybrid has no headroom because the gas side is already highly evolved, and the electric side depends on .... battery technology.

Waiting for the nano-scale fractal quantum-dot metamaterial electrodes and solid state electrolytes. That oughta do it.

jamesqf 08-01-2015 11:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist (Post 488568)
I saw Internet and I wondered who was convinced they needed that. Some prefer streaming music to listening to the radio.
Radio? Didn't that go away about the same time as the incandescent light bulb?

Don't most people put whatever music they want on to their device, be it stand-alone player, cell phone, or whatever, and just play it?

Frank Lee 08-02-2015 12:08 AM
I just drive. No radio, no CD, no tapes, no device. Alone with my thoughts- terrible huh? :thumbup:

Fat Charlie 08-03-2015 10:41 AM
I'll pass.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...a6ad18bd45.jpg

freebeard 08-07-2015 02:09 AM
When I stated driving there was [at least one] gas station on every corner. Then they went away and now it's medical dispensaries.

Fat Charlie 08-07-2015 08:26 AM
When I started driving there was a bank on every corner. Every industry gets oversaturated sometime.

The only reason I have a "problem" with gas station availablility is because I'm in the sticks, I don't want to gas up until zero and I'm way too picky about exactly how far out of my way I want the pit stop to be.

RedDevil 08-07-2015 09:40 AM
The Onion has hit upon the real reason why people will finally abandon gas...

Scientists Continue Developing Alternative Energy Sources For Americans To Waste - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

And its not just Americans. It applies to me too, I fear.
If by some fluke I would get a Tesla Model S for free then I would not sell it again, as I would with almost anything else.
I would sell the Insight and spend the yield on solar panels.
Then I would drive the Model S in the fast lane.

freebeard 08-07-2015 02:13 PM
The Onion is awesome. Never forget:
Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'
NEWS January 17, 2001
Vol 43 Issue 01

Arragonis 08-07-2015 05:32 PM
Anyone pondered that for you to have electric vehicles or indeed energy stored in a battery, you also need a reliable source of electricity.

Sorry to enter the room with an elephant.

freebeard 08-08-2015 01:45 AM
There's electricity blowing through your body like the wind. Right. Now.

Google 'Battersea Tesla'. Oops, I did it for you.

Edit: I just came back to say, do have a look at the overall project: http://www.dezeen.com/2013/03/06/arc...power-station/

Apparently the roller coaster goes right through the building.

Arragonis 08-08-2015 04:30 PM
That is pure fantasy, reality is

https://www.batterseapowerstation.co.uk/#!/

freebeard 08-08-2015 06:18 PM
I actually like that better. I never cared for roller coasters that much; and those poor architectural mannequins trapped on the catwalks underneath? Shudder.

But they could still do the 300ft Tesla coils, right?

Arragonis 08-08-2015 06:20 PM
No.

niky 08-09-2015 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 489329)
There's electricity blowing through your body like the wind. Right. Now.
Florida Judge Rules "Wi-Fi Harvesting" Illegal
"Wi-Fi Car" Owner Ordered to Pay Restitution to "Victims"

"The energy's free, nobody (is) usin' it, so I thought, why not?" - Garry Winkler, Wi-Fi Car Creator

"My husband would yell from the kitchen; 'The internet is out again, honey!' I'd yell back: 'Wi-Fi Winkler is drivin' by again!" - Name Withheld

-

If only, though... :(

jamesqf 08-09-2015 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arragonis (Post 489300)
Anyone pondered that for you to have electric vehicles or indeed energy stored in a battery, you also need a reliable source of electricity.
If I had an electric vehicle that would otherwise meet my needs (& wants), electricity would not be a problem. I could easily handle all my driving needs with rooftop PV. (Granted, I live in one of the sunnier parts of the US.)

darcane 08-10-2015 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UltArc (Post 488607)
Tesla makes their own cars...they do not convert gas cars.
But they did to get their foot in the door. Google "Tesla Roadster"...

jamesqf 08-11-2015 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 489549)
But they did to get their foot in the door. Google "Tesla Roadster"...
But the Roadster wasn't a conversion - that is, it didn't take an existing IC-engined car, rip out the motor, and install EV parts. They just chose to have Lotus build a body & chassis based on, but not identical to, the Elise.

darcane 08-11-2015 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamesqf (Post 489657)
But the Roadster wasn't a conversion - that is, it didn't take an existing IC-engined car, rip out the motor, and install EV parts. They just chose to have Lotus build a body & chassis based on, but not identical to, the Elise.
Toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe...

To aid initial development and greatly simplify getting safety approval, they used a platform for an ICE car, modified it as needed, and added electrical bits. I would still call this converting an ICE car, they just started the conversion a little earlier in the manufacturing process than you or I could.

I'm not saying this is a bad idea, far from it. It saves tremendously on R&D costs which is a huge hurdle for a new automotive manufacturer. But it's a far cry from designing an electric car from the ground up like they did with the Model S. Even with Musk's prodigious capital, I don't think Tesla could have started out with the Model S and been successful.

jamesqf 08-12-2015 12:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 489661)
TBut it's a far cry from designing an electric car from the ground up like they did with the Model S.
Though letting Lotus do the body & chassis produced a much better result (IMHO, anyway) than the over-sized, over-accessorized Model S.

UltArc 08-12-2015 01:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane (Post 489661)
Toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe...

To aid initial development and greatly simplify getting safety approval, they used a platform for an ICE car, modified it as needed, and added electrical bits. I would still call this converting an ICE car, they just started the conversion a little earlier in the manufacturing process than you or I could.

I'm not saying this is a bad idea, far from it. It saves tremendously on R&D costs which is a huge hurdle for a new automotive manufacturer. But it's a far cry from designing an electric car from the ground up like they did with the Model S. Even with Musk's prodigious capital, I don't think Tesla could have started out with the Model S and been successful.
Notice how Elio is "in process" for the past X years (no pun intended)? They are building everything on their own from scratch. Tesla made a proof of concept they could sell, THEN developed their own.

Though this is a partial truth, seven years ago they did do what you said- even if they stopped three years ago, and have been successfully building their own vehicles since then. I do think it was smarter to get a working platform and build off of it- kind of like how that nimble guy is using a Nissan frame for his, before building his own.

Fat Charlie 08-12-2015 09:09 AM
I'm feeling very entertained by all this today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Charlie (Post 488996)
An Elio 0.8 or 0.9 back in 2013 would have fallen well short of all the dreamed of benchmarks that the Elio 1.0 hopes to hit.

Except one: It would exist.

It would also have sold. It would have been generating more attention than all the powerpoint presentations being given to investors and it would have been bringing money in the whole time- all with the understanding that it wasn't the ideal Elio, that the next Elio would be even better. There would be an active Elio owners' group building a cult instead of nothing but of an active Elio ridicule thread here.
Now if Paul Elio were working a decade before anyone had heard of Elon Musk, his wrongheadedness would be excusable. But Musk showed how it's done... and Elio is doing something else. He sure isn't in the manufacturing/automotive/whatever business.

niky 08-12-2015 10:30 PM
Musk had the luxury of selling... uh... luxury cars.

Of course, the Elio isn't a luxury car, but a low-cost three-wheeler. That doesn't mean you can't sell it on a luxury premise... the freedom of a bike with better weather protection, safety and maybe even AC.

So many things you could do better, faster, cheaper... if you weren't trying to milk government subsidies and loans for all they were worth...

Fat Charlie 08-13-2015 08:51 AM
Building any company from nothing takes a lot of time and capital. Using preexisting parts and designs where possible can save a lot of steps, allowing the company to have something to sell.

Elio didn't bother to design and build swivel chairs for his office. He didn't write his own office software or design software. He didn't grow his own coffee beans for the break room. If he did any of that he would have been dismissed as a lunatic.

But he isn't using off the shelf turn signal and marker lights, is he? Nooo, he had someone design them fresh. And he isn't considered an idiot.

He's identified a niche that isn't being filled. He could cobble together something to fill that niche and sell it at a profit while developing the one that does it best- and the early buyers would be happy to upgrade to the new one when it comes out. But he doesn't want to fill that niche- he's making his money without having to produce anything.

Xist 08-13-2015 11:31 AM
Something something naked emperor... :)


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