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redpoint5 05-25-2017 11:14 AM

EV Price Discussion
 
2013 Leafs are going for $7,500 on CL.

I have a theory that prices might increase for used EVs in the next 1 or 2 years. As one article pointed out, there was a state that had something like a $5k tax rebate for purchasing an EV. When that incentive went away, EV sales plummeted to almost nothing.

Federal tax incentives phase out at 200k cars sold per manufacturer. I would be surprised if the current administration extends this. As incentives dry up, I expect new EV sales to plummet nationwide.

When new EVs suddenly cost $7,500 more, people will have less incentive to buy. This will also result in less used cars being available. With a diminishing supply of used cars and the increased price for new, this should raise the price of existing EVs.

I think I'll time my used car purchase around the time that GM cars run out of tax credits.

freebeard 05-25-2017 12:23 PM

I didn't post this last night because I thought it was off-topic; but the last two posters have 'opened the door':

Jalopnik: You Can Get A Rear-Engined BMW With A Carbon Fiber Body For Less Than A Honda Civic

$16K, $20K with a 'range extender'.

sendler 05-25-2017 12:31 PM

Car prices are always lowest in the dead of Winter and recover slightly in the Spring.

vskid3 05-25-2017 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 541205)
When new EVs suddenly cost $7,500 more, people will have less incentive to buy.

But will the prices stay the same when the tax credit goes away? I wouldn't be surprised if the current MSRPs weren't at least a little inflated because they know the incentives will make the prices seem more reasonable. We probably won't see a $7500 price drop, but maybe $3k or $4k.

jjackstone 05-25-2017 02:03 PM

Somewhere in the last few weeks I read the reason used Leaf prices are increasing is because they have become really popular in overseas{I think Europe especially). So, many dealers are buying them up here and shipping them off and still making a better profit.
Can't find the source right now but I'lllook for it.

jjackstone 05-25-2017 02:09 PM

Here's one version.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/04/24...ning-gas-cars/

JJ

redpoint5 05-25-2017 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 541211)

Minor point, but the BMW isn't made of carbon fiber. It's a carbon fiber plastic composite. Not as lightweight and strong as carbon fiber, but also not as expensive.

I'm wondering why the BMW hasn't dropped as severely in price as the Leaf? I can get a '14 Leaf for $9k and a '14 i3 for $16k, which is twice as expensive. The BMW didn't cost twice as much. The BMW should be more like $11k if it were to have the same rate of depreciation.

I've got my eye out for an i3 too, since it's more fun to drive and slightly less less annoying to look at. I'm not willing to pay way more than a Leaf, though.

That reminds me, I need to see what Spark EV prices have been doing...

redpoint5 05-25-2017 06:53 PM

Mods, can we merge post 477 and on into this new thread?

redpoint5 05-25-2017 06:54 PM

EV Price Discussion
 
2013 Leafs are going for $7,500 on CL.

I have a theory that prices might increase for used EVs in the next 1 or 2 years. As one article pointed out, there was a state that had something like a $5k tax rebate for purchasing an EV. When that incentive went away, EV sales plummeted to almost nothing.

Federal tax incentives phase out at 200k cars sold per manufacturer. I would be surprised if the current administration extends this. As incentives dry up, I expect new EV sales to plummet nationwide.

When new EVs suddenly cost $7,500 more, people will have less incentive to buy. This will also result in less used cars being available. With a diminishing supply of used cars and the increased price for new, this should raise the price of existing EVs.

I think I'll time my used car purchase around the time that GM cars run out of tax credits.

oil pan 4 05-25-2017 10:35 PM

I think when the new supply drys up and gas goes over $3.50 a gallon and everyone gets caught with their pants down driving something that get 15mpg all of a sudden EVs will get expensive again.

But some things that won't change:
The lack of charging stations.
People who rent and can't install a charging station.
The range limit.

They still remain a bit of a toy for us rich land owners who can run a 30 to 50 amp 240v circuit to where they park.
I have already ran a 50 amp welder circuit to the garage for a welder. It could also power a vehicle charger.

redpoint5 05-26-2017 04:25 PM

I just found a 2015 Spark EV listed on CL for $11,000

https://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/cto/6115869905.html

Would really like a cheap i3, but maybe the Spark will compete with the Leaf to be the best used value.

redpoint5 09-21-2017 12:00 AM

Now that the Bolt and Model 3 are out, and the Leaf II is about to drop, what do you think EV prices will do in the next 6-24 months?

I see a 2014 Spark EV listed for $7k with a salvage title. Now that the Spark EV is discontinued, do you think they will depreciate faster? How about the Leaf now that the Leaf II is almost to market?

When do you think the sweet spot to buy a used EV will be?

oil pan 4 09-21-2017 02:01 AM

I think EV prices are still really depending on market saturation and gas prices.
Back around 2010 when gas prices were over $3.50 a gallon and there was a waiting list for the prius and all the companies that did Eav conversions were booked solid for 2 years the existing electric vehicles were going for stupid high prices.

JockoT 09-21-2017 02:41 AM

Once the Leaf II comes out, here in the UK, I think I may try and pick up a Leaf I. They will probably discount them and try and sell them off. There are not a lot of options for me here, other than the Leaf.
The Bolt/Ampera would fill my need brilliantly, but they are not sold in the UK.

sendler 09-21-2017 06:39 AM

I expected the used car pricing of off lease Leafs to hit rock bottom this summer to coincide with the peak of the units that were moved 3 years ago. But the pricing has held steady at $8-9,000.
.
Leaf new car deliveries 3 years ago began to slowly drop off after August on a long, steady decline. So supply of 3 year old Leafs will gradually go down keeping the price at least as high as it is now.
.
For some reason, I have seen 2015 leafs that must have been on an 18 month lease selling for only 20% more which might be the better value. Miles in the low teens and the 2015's had the best battery chemistry that might actually make it to 100,000 miles before dropping to 50% capacity.
.
The 30kWh battery in the mid 2016 seems to be having some problems with bad cells and early degradation again. a few have quickly gone to a degradation trajectory similar to a 24 kWh battery. And Nissan has change the battery life "bars" readout to keep from having to warranty any of them. It looks like the 2016 would have to go to 45-50% loss before the fourth bar will drop.
.
2011 and 2012 Leaf batteries are all suspect and are all out of 60 months coverage. So unless you can get by with a 30 mile range, I wouldn't buy one of those for over $3,000. At which point you could buy a new version 24kWh battery installed for $6,500 and have a nice car.

JockoT 09-21-2017 06:48 AM

I was looking at getting a new Leaf, next year, as the dealers try to shift the Mk 1 before the Mk 2 comes into the showrooms.

sendler 09-21-2017 07:00 AM

Discounts and applied federal refunds have already had new Leaf pricing on leases with a buy out at the end at around $20,000. They are not going to go any lower even with the new styling coming out. Other states had additional refunds that got it to $16,000. And there were some group buys in Colorado the somehow got them to $14,000.
.
I wonder how close they are to the 200,000 unit cap in the USA which will sunset the $7,500 refund?

JockoT 09-21-2017 08:10 AM

I live in the UK and will be purchasing in the UK so none of the caps you speak about effect me. In the UK, EVs are in categories, as far as the government is concerned, and the Leaf is a Category 1 (These vehicles have CO2 emissions of less than 50g/km and can travel at least 112km (70 miles) without any CO2 emissions at all). The grant will pay for 35% of the purchase price for these vehicles, up to a maximum of £4,500.
However, the discount I am looking for is the dealer discount, that dealers give to move stock of vehicles that have been superseded by newer models. I do not intend leasing the vehicle I opt for.

sendler 09-21-2017 08:51 AM

The Lease then buy strategy was the cheapest way to buy a Leaf in the US. The pricing has been maximally aggressive for a few years now already. It won't go any lower than I stated above just because the updated car is coming.

Daox 09-21-2017 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sendler (Post 550587)
I wonder how close they are to the 200,000 unit cap in the USA which will sunset the $7,500 refund?

According to the sales figures on goodcarbadcar.com, the Leaf has sold 113k units since starting sales in the US. So, we still have a ways to go before hitting 200k.

Nissan LEAF Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

I have my eye out for a 2013-2015 Leaf. When the right deal comes along, I may well nab one.

sendler 09-21-2017 09:15 AM

Somewhere around $8,000 would be a fair price for 30,000 miles for me in NY. Some rougher 2013's with 60,000 miles are around $5,500.

redpoint5 09-21-2017 10:22 AM

The Leaf batteries still carry an 8 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty, so if they are losing 4 bars in that timeframe you could potentially get a new battery, or at least one not so bad.

Here is when InsideEVs predicts the credits to phase out for each manufacturer:

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uplo...tion-chart.png

I think I'll shoot for January when people aren't looking for cars, and have no cash due to the holidays. Also, the new year will instantly make the used cars appear to be 1 year older.

sendler 09-21-2017 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 550597)
The Leaf batteries still carry an 8 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty, so if they are losing 4 bars in that timeframe you could potentially get a new battery, or at least one not so bad.

This is only for a battery fault. Like a dead cell pair that is bricking the battery with a code. Not capacity. The capacity warranty is 5 years/ 60,000 miles. Any 2013.5 and up which came with one, then another battery improvements will probably never win the battery lottery.

JockoT 09-21-2017 11:18 AM

There have already been 20,000 sales of the Nissan Leaf, here in the UK.

sendler 09-21-2017 12:50 PM

Buyer of a used Leaf beware also that the used car guys can and will reset the battery range indicator (guess-o-meter). and then go for some very gentle drives, and then recharge, to show an available range of 80-100 miles even though the car has 40,000 miles and 3 bars lost. And will really only go 50 miles once the new buyer starts driving it on the highway.

Xist 09-21-2017 02:23 PM

How do you check for this?

sendler 09-21-2017 03:18 PM

Take a long test drive of 50 miles on the highway with the heat/ ac on ect. to make sure before you buy any EV. If the guessometer agrees with the miles driven at the end then you can know what you are getting. If you drive until a low remaining capacity and have only gone 40 miles you will know about what the true range is. Also the guessometer may start recalculating after 10 or 20 miles to show what is real.
.
Anyone that is seriously thinking of buying a Leaf should get the Leafspy app and a dongle. Then all of your questions will be answered with one click after the test drive.

vskid3 09-21-2017 06:45 PM

It'll be interesting to see what the Leaf's battery issues will do to its value and other EVs as they age out of warranty and start getting the same EV range of a Volt. We might see other manufacturers bragging about their battery management setups and lack of degradation.

In my area, it looks like the prices have started leveling out or even increased a bit (besides Leafs). Electric Smarts seem to be averaging a little more than a few months ago. Volt prices have plateaued or even gone up. Almost a year ago, we were looking at a 2013 Volt with 102k miles for $10225. Less than a month ago, we bought a 2013 Volt with 97k miles for $10k from the same dealer.

redpoint5 09-21-2017 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sendler (Post 550646)
Anyone that is seriously thinking of buying a Leaf should get the Leafspy app and a dongle. Then all of your questions will be answered with one click after the test drive.

Yes, I will get Leafspy once I get serious about buying one. The dongle is just a bluetooth ELM237?

sendler 09-21-2017 10:50 PM

Only certain brands of dongles tend to work best with no bugs. Check the Leaf forum for the latest info.

redpoint5 12-13-2017 02:30 PM

I don't follow the news, but I hear that the $7,500 federal tax credit is on the chopping block. If the subsidy goes away, used prices will jump up quickly.

It seems used Leafs have come down a little since I last checked. The Model 3 just started shipping to customers, and I hear the gen II Leaf will available in January.

I'm thinking February will be a good time to buy a used Leaf assuming the federal credit isn't repealed.

Any guesses on when the rapid Leaf depreciation will end? The price I'm willing to pay for a 2013 Leaf is around $4k. Would like to get my parents into an EV soon since they rarely travel more than 30 miles, and have other cars available for when they do.

roflwaffle 12-13-2017 02:52 PM

Supposedly it's staying put, but nothing's in stone yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...edits-jb5dh81s

ldjessee00 12-13-2017 03:13 PM

We bought a new 2017 Leaf instead of a used one for one reason, our power company and Nissan had a program that if I proved I was a customer, I got $10k off my Leaf.

I am sure it was a joint thing, Nissan wanting to get rid of inventory before the 2018 came out and the power company thinking it would make money back on the power sold.

Then our employer (Indiana University) put a charger at the front of the building we work in and charges a flat $3/month EV parking tag (max 4 hours at the charger from 8-5). It is very convenient, you get a parking spot up front, and for the charging once week (well, now three times in two weeks with the cold), it is much pretty cheap. $9 for just under 3 months (1,700 miles). We only use it for commuting to work and grocery shopping (and other intown errands).

redpoint5 05-29-2018 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjackstone (Post 541217)
Somewhere in the last few weeks I read the reason used Leaf prices are increasing is because they have become really popular in overseas{I think Europe especially). So, many dealers are buying them up here and shipping them off and still making a better profit.
Can't find the source right now but I'lllook for it.

Strange that I mostly glossed over your comment, and just now am discovering it to be quite true. I'll link the Torquenews article since the other site is a cesspool:

https://www.torquenews.com/3618/used...rices-going-up

I've been using this website to track prices. Note that you have to adjust the date range to see the dip and rise in Leaf prices.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-...san-Leaf-d2077

Prices hit bottom in March of last year, and then rose to a high in June. They are just now beginning to fall back to the low prices from early last year.


Coupled with this...

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 541232)
I think when the new supply drys up and gas goes over $3.50 a gallon and everyone gets caught with their pants down driving something that get 15mpg all of a sudden EVs will get expensive again.

You called this one. Fuel prices are up, conspiring to ruin my perfect timing on a used EV.

Model 3 production should hit a good stride within a month, and Nissan is advertising the Leaf 2.0, so I assume they are now available. I would think this would drive down the price of gen I EVs, but I'm just not seeing that yet.

Perhaps fuel prices will go back down over the winter, making next January an opportune time to pick up a used EV?

I've been using this site to search multiple auto listings:

https://www.autotempest.com

redpoint5 01-08-2019 07:05 PM

2 Attachment(s)
Seems used EV prices bottomed out Feb of 2017, rose a bit, and are mostly holding steady.

I wonder if the tax credit phase out is already holding used EV prices steady, and if the value might actually rise again like it did in 2017.

Snax 01-08-2019 09:45 PM

Given that year over year demand for all of them has continued to rise, I think that will be the case for models that continue production past the credit window. BUT, new EVs on the market could tamp that down significantly, providing massive range improvements at prices comparable to 5 years ago when adjusted to inflation. (I have not actually done the math on that, but that is my sense of it.)

oil pan 4 01-09-2019 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 588163)
Seems used EV prices bottomed out Feb of 2017, rose a bit, and are mostly holding steady.

I wonder if the tax credit phase out is already holding used EV prices steady, and if the value might actually rise again like it did in 2017.

I'm going to steal the heck out of that leaf graph.

redpoint5 01-09-2019 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 588190)
I'm going to steal the heck out of that leaf graph.

No need to steal it. Make any graph you want from the data here:

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/

oil pan 4 01-09-2019 04:12 PM

I didn't know that they had that option.
I just figured you found it some where.
It does explain why there was no 2016 or 2017 data.

redpoint5 01-09-2019 04:23 PM

Whoops, missed a couple check boxes for the '16 and '17. Gives a pretty good trend though, and all of the EVs I checked had similar trends.

There's something funny going on with regard to demand being higher for used EVs now. I was planning to buy one this year, but whenever I feel uncertain, my default is to hold off.

I'd probably be willing to pay $15,000 for a used Bolt, but we're a very long way off from them reaching that price if this trend continues.


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