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aerohead 03-14-2022 12:25 PM

Greenhouse Gases
 
I've published this elsewhere, however, it's important enough to stand out where it can't be buried in another thread:
1) Water vapor............................................ H2O
2) Carbon Dioxide........................................ CO2
3) Carbon Monoxide..................................... CO
4) Chloroflourocarbons............................... .. CFCs
5) Hydroflourocarbons................................ .. HFCs
6) Hydrochloroflourocarbons.......................... HCFCs
7) Methane........................................... ....... CH4
8) Nitrous Oxide............................................N 2O
9) Nitrogen Oxides........................................ NOx
10) Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds... NMVOCs
11) Perflourocarbons.................................. ... PFCs
12) Sulfur Hexaflouride.................................. SF6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3,9, and 10 chemically transform into GHGs, or influence the lifetimes of GHGs already in the atmosphere

aerohead 04-11-2022 04:27 PM

2021 = 500-ppm CO2-equivalency
 
* From Andrew Glickson's book, 'Event Horizon......................', as of 2021, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, from all sources, was equivalent to 500 parts per million ( ppm ) of carbon dioxide, compared to a 1850, pre-Industrial Revolution, 280-ppm.
* By Thursday I should be able to comment on what that means for us.

redpoint5 04-11-2022 05:19 PM

April snow in Vancouver, WA?

aerohead 04-11-2022 05:38 PM

April snow
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 665997)
April snow in Vancouver, WA?

It's not inconsistent with predictions.
Poles are warming twice as fast as the global average.
The polar vortex is unstable.
This makes the polar jet stream meander.
Which causes the meridional flow that can wreak havoc with distribution of heat, moisture, precipitation, drought, desiccation, vegetative burning, bushfires, forest fires, ............................
We're warming at an order of magnitude greater than ever seen in geologic history, during the great extinction events.
We've actually exceeded 2.0-degree Celsius, we just can't sense it until coal-fired plants are all turned off, and the sulphate aerosols precipitate out of the atmosphere.
Without mitigation and carbon capture back down to 350 ppm, we'll go to 4-degrees-C and it's all over!
It's happened before, but on tens -of -thousands -of -years timescales, not 100-years.Humans weren't on the planet back then.
Fascinating!

oil pan 4 04-12-2022 03:53 PM

The polar warming has already been largely blamed on CFCs which are already banned.
More baseless alarmism.

freebeard 04-12-2022 04:59 PM

I guess I picked the wrong thread for the Slashdot story.

Ice-free shipping lanes created soot-blacken snow and ice which leads to more ice-free shipping.

freebeard 04-13-2022 02:04 PM

I invite OP's attention to https://www.drroyspencer.com/, specifically Explaining Mauna Loa CO2 Increases with Anthropogenic and Natural Influences -- April 9th, 2022 if it's no longer top of page.

He was cited by someone he (and you) disagree[s] with, but he leans into statistical regression pretty heavily. It might be of interest.
Quote:

In addition to the master equation having a basis in physical processes, it avoids the problem of linear trends in two datasets being mistakenly attributed to a cause-and-effect relationship. Any time series of data that has just a linear trend is perfectly correlated with every other time series having just a linear trend, and yet that perfect correlation tells us nothing about causation.

But when we use the time derivative of the data, it is only the fluctuations from a linear trend that are correlated with another variable, giving some hope of inferring causation.

aerohead 04-14-2022 01:06 PM

CFCs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 666080)
The polar warming has already been largely blamed on CFCs which are already banned.
More baseless alarmism.

1) CFCs 'ARE' the most powerful man-made GHG.
2) And they remain in the stratosphere destroying the ozone layer for about 150-years. ( Roland & Molina )
3) CFC atmospheric concentration though, pales in comparison to carbon-dioxide, methane, and nitrous-oxide.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4) Earth would have begun to enter a new ice age around 6,000-years ago, had humans not begun land clearing, fires, farming, and animal husbandry.
5) Any 'next' glaciation event is postponed by about 100,000-years.
6) Long-term ( one-thousand-year ) residence time of carbon-dioxide renders short-lived climate spikes unlikely.

aerohead 04-14-2022 01:29 PM

GHGs and Carbon-Dioxide
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 666113)
I invite OP's attention to https://www.drroyspencer.com/, specifically Explaining Mauna Loa CO2 Increases with Anthropogenic and Natural Influences -- April 9th, 2022 if it's no longer top of page.

He was cited by someone he (and you) disagree[s] with, but he leans into statistical regression pretty heavily. It might be of interest.

1) One consideration: Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases are not limited to carbon-dioxide.
2) As of November, 2019, Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases constituted 500-ppmv - carbon-dioxide-'equivalency', with
CO2 @ 410.27 ppmv
and CH4 Methane plus N2O Nitrous-oxide @ 89.73 ppmv CO2-e
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3) It took over 1,000-years for the atmosphere to reach 496-ppm, from 280 ppm without humans.
4) Presently, we've gone from 280- to- 500 in under 100-years.
5) During the last 5-major extinction events, at no time did Earth's greenhouse concentration increase at the rate currently observed. By an order of magnitude.

freebeard 04-14-2022 04:01 PM

Quote:

1) One consideration:
Did you find the link interesting?

aerohead 04-14-2022 04:39 PM

link?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 666194)
Did you find the link interesting?

The link about Spencer?
If so, I already addressed his presentation.
One model out of a couple of dozen is of little consequence in light of the total body of information.
NATURE and SCIENCE both warned of these 'reinterpretations' of data.
It seems like, if your paycheck comes from an oil-lobby financed think tank, identical data from NASA experiences a different 'conclusion' than NASA.
If I'm remembering Spencer correctly.

freebeard 04-14-2022 07:26 PM

Quote:

The link about Spencer?
....
If I'm remembering Spencer correctly.
The question wasn't about his reputation, just the article.

Quote:

Introduction
Inferring Causation from the “Master Equation”
Correlation of dCO2/dt with Various Potential Forcings
Regression Models of Mauna Loa CO2
Conclusions
The Mauna Loa CO2 data need to be converted to year-to-year changes before being empirically compared to other variables to ferret out possible causal mechanisms. This in effect uses the ‘master equation’ (a time differential equation) which is the basis of many physically-based treatments of physical systems. It, in effect, removes the linear trend in the dependent variable from the correlation analysis, and trends by themselves have no utility in determining cause-versus-effect from purely statistical analyses.

When the CO2 data are analyzed in this way, the greatest correlations are found with global (or tropical) surface temperature changes and estimated yearly anthropogenic emissions. Curiously, reversing the direction of causation between surface temperature and CO2 (yearly changes in SST [dSST/dt] being caused by increasing CO2) yields a very low correlation.

Using a regression model that has one anthropogenic source term and three natural forcing terms, a high level of agreement between model and observations is found, including during the COVID-19 year of 2020 when global CO2 emissions were reduced by about 6%.
Did you find the article internally self-consistent?

aerohead 04-18-2022 12:10 PM

self-consistent
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 666214)
The question wasn't about his reputation, just the article.



Did you find the article internally self-consistent?

I found it intellectually dishonest!
It, in itself, isn't even something one would be so concerned about at this juncture.
And if Spencer was actually a 'climate scientist', he'd know from first principles that the carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration, or how it's represented statistically, isn't 'the' thing to worry about now.
It's why I posted about Andrew Glickson's book.
The Earth's 6th-Mass Extinction is about methane ( permafrost and sea-bed sediment clathrates ), triggered by the warming from carbon-dioxide, which is a done deal, unfolding as I type.

MetroMPG 07-19-2022 01:02 PM

Closing this thread.


Lots of other forums where discussion of this subject matter is welcome.



Let's stick to talking about vehicular efficiency.


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