EcoModder.com

EcoModder.com (https://ecomodder.com/forum/)
-   Hybrids (https://ecomodder.com/forum/hybrids.html)
-   -   The hybrid ticking time bomb (https://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/hybrid-ticking-time-bomb-40433.html)

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 12:31 AM

The hybrid ticking time bomb
 
After derailing the Maverick thread (Sorry!) I thought I'd instead make a thread on the subject.

There are two kinds of Hybrid owners:
  1. Those that have never had a hybrid battery go out.
  2. Those that have

The first group just doesn't own their hybrid long enough for it to go out. They trade in their car either because of some other malfunction or accident, or just to have a nicer, newer car.

But this is Ecomodder, the place where people go to save money. Not that buying newer is never the smartest thing to do, but generally the longer you own your vehicle without needing major repairs the cheaper it becomes. So that brings us to the second group.

Mind you, yes, a lot of other cars that are around 15-years-old or older with, say, over 200,000 miles on them are also in need of major repairs. But in a non-hybrid, a little TLC can sometimes go a long way. Frequent oil changes and other fluid changes, easy driving, engine block heaters, keeping on top of leak prevention, etc. all help a traditional car last longer. There are some out there that have way beyond 200,000 miles on the original engine, transmission and most everything else.

Yes, there are those that succumb to rust, sometimes dangerouslyrotting important structural components, long before other parts need major repairs or replacement. But not everyone lives in a rust belt either. And rust can sometimes be delt with too before it becomes too much of a problem.

So why am I talking about all this. Well, if you can buy a car for under $1,000 and drive it for several years, you've got a true econo car.

TANGENT
I've done this twice. First it was a 1993 Mazda 323 5 speed I bought back in 2006 or 2007 for $250. It needed a battery, a radiator and the head was warped. I took the head and had it milled and threw it on with a new gasket set, replaced the radiator and suprisingly there was a receipt for the battery and it was still under warranty, so I got a free battery. The next year or so I replaced every strut cartridge and brake pad and all 4 tires. I also ended up getting a set of rims for $200 and put snow tires on them. I drove that car all over the place, even clear down to Puerto Vallarta Mexico once. It only gave out on me once and turned out to be a bad conection to the fuel pump. Then in 2011 I ended up giving it to a realative and kind of kicked myself in the butt for doing that.

I then had a similar experience with a 1985 VW Golf diesel that needed a motor mount and transmission seals that I replaced myself.


These are the kind of vehicles poor or frugal people buy. That kid, looking for his first car to go to highschool or college in or save up for his first house or his marriage, for an example. Or an ecomodder looking to save every last penny. And yes, a person could go get a better paying job, maybe in another town, maybe give up some other expensive hobby... just to own a newer car... But what's the point of that?

Personally I avoid cars between the 50,000 mile and 200,000 marks. These are the cars that can cost some $5,000 or so and may be decent cars. But sometimes they end up needing a couple grand or more of work too. At that price a person might as well as have gotten a semi-used, single owner car for some $8,000 or more. And on the other end least with a $500 car you can either walk away and have only lost less than what most people lose per month in a car payment, or spend the couple grand and have a new engine or transmission that may even come with a small warranty.

Well, a couple years ago I thought, "Why not get another project car?" and found a 2006 Prius for $300. One problem was the hybrid battery was dead. The car would drive a while, then make a red triangle of death, and after pulling over wouldn't go anywhere. So I ended up replacing 3 modules, the beginning of "whack-a-mole battery care." I've looked into battery replacements, and it looks like most aftermarket batteries are not reliable at all, as finding someone with more than a year or two without a failure is very rare on any battery below about $2,000 for just the battery.

Now I see why so many on Prius forums have said an old hybrid is not a good first car. The question came up, why aren't all cars hybrids? If they were, wouldn't that mean all would have an expensive battery failure at some point? Hybrids are awesome, so is there anything that can be done about that? Or do you just have to budget $3,000 or more for a potential battery replacement when getting an old hybrid? Or is avoiding old hybrids just the way to go to save money?

redpoint5 08-16-2022 02:40 AM

Couple thoughts on this.

1. Hybrid technology is relatively new. Battery tech is the achilles heel. The Nissan Leaf was among the first of modern EVs, and it has a very terrible battery architecture. I expect no future EVs to degrade as severely as it. There is a price to be paid by adopting early iterations of any idea.

2. The dumbest vehicles to make into a hybrid were selected first. The ROI on the hybrid tech on a compact, ultra-efficient vehicle design is so many years into the future. Had the larger vehicles been the first to receive hybrid tech, the thousands of dollars in fuel savings over the course of ownership would make replacing a battery a no-brainer.

Just look at the Honda Insights as evidence. Plenty of people saying they didn't replace the traction battery when it went bad because it cost too much, and doesn't really improve the MPGs. Might accelerate a bit slower than before, but who cares.

Finally, there's differentiation between models. Would you rather own an out of warranty VW, or an out of warranty Toyota Corolla? Just as there's differences in maintenance costs with ICE vehicles, there will be differences in costs / longevity in hybrids.

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673034)
Couple thoughts on this.

1. Hybrid technology is relatively new. Battery tech is the achilles heel. The Nissan Leaf was among the first of modern EVs, and it has a very terrible battery architecture. I expect no future EVs to degrade as severely as it. There is a price to be paid by adopting early iterations of any idea.

Toyota still uses similar NiMH modules on a lot of their vehicles. Of course we won't know what the longevity of those will actually be going forward.

From the sound of it, Nissan has never gotten a better battery in terms of longevity. But that's just Nissan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673034)
2. The dumbest vehicles to make into a hybrid were selected first. The ROI on the hybrid tech on a compact, ultra-efficient vehicle design is so many years into the future. Had the larger vehicles been the first to receive hybrid tech, the thousands of dollars in fuel savings over the course of ownership would make replacing a battery a no-brainer.

Just look at the Honda Insights as evidence. Plenty of people saying they didn't replace the traction battery when it went bad because it cost too much, and doesn't really improve the MPGs. Might accelerate a bit slower than before, but who cares.

Finally, there's differentiation between models. Would you rather own an out of warranty VW, or an out of warranty Toyota Corolla? Just as there's differences in maintenance costs with ICE vehicles, there will be differences in costs / longevity in hybrids.

Wouldn't battery size and price scale with vehicle size?

The MSRP for a battery for my Prius was about: $2,000 but are no longer available.
For my 2013 Avalon it's: $3,541
And for a new Sienna it's: $5,003

Is this just because they are newer or because of COVID prices, or do bigger vehicles have more expensive batteries?

I mean, sure, paying $3,000 or so for an economy car is a bit much. But $6,000 or so to install a battery for a minivan that gets 35mpg, would that be worth it?

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 11:31 AM

So here's another thing, parts.toyota.com no longer sells Gen 2 or Gen 3 Prius batteries, or at least they are marked as unavailable for whatever reason.

This is bad, as there are very few aftermarket batteries that seem worthwhile, and even then they are costly, maybe even more than an OEM, and may not meet the quality of an OEM battery still.

redpoint5 08-16-2022 11:55 AM

Those who purchase an old car either to save money, or because they can't afford anything more expensive don't buy OEM parts from the manufacturer and then have the dealership perform the work.

Old cars get junkyard parts and the owners do the work themselves. That's what makes it worthwhile to salvage an old car.

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673057)
Those who purchase an old car either to save money, or because they can't afford anything more expensive don't buy OEM parts from the manufacturer and then have the dealership perform the work.

Old cars get junkyard parts and the owners do the work themselves. That's what makes it worthwhile to salvage an old car.

Yes BUT...

With a used transmission or engine for $500 to $1,000 or so, you can get one that has low miles and then get possibly even more out of it than your old engine or transmission by taking better care of it than your high mileage engine or transmission you got when you bought your 250,000 mile car.

But batteries are different. Looking on eBay, the cheapest ones are around $700 and are 15 years old, almost ready to die themselves. Something with several years left on it will cost around $2,000.

S Keith 08-16-2022 12:39 PM

List price on a Gen2 battery from any Toyota dealership is $1950 + $1500 core charge. They are still available, though Toyota's supply chain is very inconsistent right now.

Gen2 batteries in Phoenix last an average of 160K miles.
55K low and 386K mile high outliers (386K miles was a cab application).

Gen2 batteries in Texas last an average of 180K miles.

Gen2 batteries in extreme northern U.S. climates average > 200K miles.

STD is about 30K miles

Gen3 batteries (all Toyota 6 cell module based hybrid batteries that are NOT 04-09 Prius) last notably less mileage and commonly have widespread damage to the majority of the pack that cannot be reconditioned to an ethically usable level.

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S Keith (Post 673059)
List price on a Gen2 battery from any Toyota dealership is $1950 + $1500 core charge. They are still available, though Toyota's supply chain is very inconsistent right now.

Gen2 batteries in Phoenix last an average of 160K miles.
55K low and 386K mile high outliers (386K miles was a cab application).

Gen2 batteries in Texas last an average of 180K miles.

Gen2 batteries in extreme northern U.S. climates average > 200K miles.

STD is about 30K miles

Gen3 batteries (all Toyota 6 cell module based hybrid batteries that are NOT 04-09 Prius) last notably less mileage and commonly have widespread damage to the majority of the pack that cannot be reconditioned to an ethically usable level.

Ya, the supply chain is the apparent culprit of the lack of OEM batteries. In Denver there's a dealer that cuts the Gen2 battery price down to about $1,750 (plus core of course) online the last time I looked.

I've also heard the Gen3's last less too. I thought it was because Toyota made the Gen3 work the battery harder than the Gen2.

S Keith 08-16-2022 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673034)
Couple thoughts on this.
Just look at the Honda Insights as evidence. Plenty of people saying they didn't replace the traction battery when it went bad because it cost too much, and doesn't really improve the MPGs. Might accelerate a bit slower than before, but who cares.

The Hondas had this option because they have a backup starter on a far less integrated drivetrain. The failure of the traction battery had little to no effect on highway economy, but it completely destroys city mpg. Acceleration is NOTABLY reduced. The manual is a little better than the CVT, but it just sucks a little less.

I have owned 5 Honda hybrids. 02 & 05 Insight, 03 Civic, 2X 06 Civics. They are all garbage when their hybrid batteries fail. Some are willing to live with it, and they downplay the implications to justify their decision.

S Keith 08-16-2022 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673060)
Ya, the supply chain is the apparent culprit of the lack of OEM batteries. In Denver there's a dealer that cuts the Gen2 battery price down to about $1,750 (plus core of course) online the last time I looked.

I've also heard the Gen3's last less too. I thought it was because Toyota made the Gen3 work the battery harder than the Gen2.

Concerning availability, it's all about timing. About ever 4-6 weeks, there's a small flood. I had 4 come available all at once after having none for 6 weeks.

In the old days, they'd send several hundred over on a freighter, but it appears they're shipping much smaller batches to address supply rather than hold them for a big shipment.

It was common that a brand new battery had modules made 6-9 months prior. Now it's rare that they're more than 1-2 months old.

Gen3: That is my opinion as well. I have personally observed higher charge rates at higher states of charge and higher discharge rates at lower states of charge than I've ever seen in any Gen2. Plus those STUPID EV, ECO and POWER buttons added for consumer appeal... FFS. Each should be labeled "shorter battery life".

The only thing "good" about gen3, is they rarely drop a cell. Clear the codes, and you might get a week or more of un-coded driving. I've had folks do this for months before they finally replace the battery. $20 code reader and clear them as they come. If the car still drives okay, the only thing being harmed is the battery, and it's already a turd.

It's also due to a jacked-up cooling system. When they made the battery more compact and installed the cooling fan on the battery, the expansion duct is too short to allow for uniform airflow. It essentially shoves a column of air down the center of the battery and produces horribly uneven flow up through the modules.

redpoint5 08-16-2022 12:59 PM

How have the Gen III plug-in batteries (lithium ion) been holding up?

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S Keith (Post 673063)
... Plus those STUPID EV, ECO and POWER buttons added for consumer appeal... FFS. Each should be labeled "shorter battery life".

I've been using ECO mode on the 2013 hybrid Avalon (the car feels overpowered to me in normal mode.) But are you saying maybe I shouldn't use that mode???

Phase 08-16-2022 01:13 PM

I’m thankfully my Hyundai Ioniq has a LIFETIME warranty on its hybrid battery

seuadr 08-16-2022 01:17 PM

interesting discussion - my fusion hybrid just recently crossed 75k miles and got me wondering if there is any potential battery issues on the horizon.

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phase (Post 673066)
Im thankfully my Hyundai Ioniq has a LIFETIME warranty on its hybrid battery

Any idea if that will extend to a second owner?

Quote:

Originally Posted by https://myioniq.com/hyundai-ioniq-warranty/
Also noteworthy is that the IONIQ battery warranty only applies to the original owner. So far, weve been unable to find out what, if any, sort of battery warranty applies to a future owner.


S Keith 08-16-2022 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673064)
How have the Gen III plug-in batteries (lithium ion) been holding up?

I have no insight to that market. FWIW, I encountered a Ford Fusion Hybrid Energi that normally have about a 20 mile EV range. After 5 years and 70K miles, it's EV range degraded to 7 miles.

Heat is a killer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673068)
Any idea if that will extend to a second owner?

https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/ass...-best-warranty

10yr/100K

8yr/80K is a federal minimum for HEV and PHEV. They don't apply to BEV.

Snax 08-16-2022 04:06 PM

Interesting to note that most of the older hybrids in this auction show "BATTERY SYSTEM ISSUES". Only the 2007 or newer don't list that, but I'd be hesitant when it comes to age in general.

Isaac Zachary 08-16-2022 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snax (Post 673073)
Interesting to note that most of the older hybrids in this auction show "BATTERY SYSTEM ISSUES". Only the 2007 or newer don't list that, but I'd be hesitant when it comes to age in general.

There's a 2008 Ford hybrid on that list that says "hybrid battery failure, will need towed."

S Keith 08-17-2022 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snax (Post 673073)
Interesting to note that most of the older hybrids in this auction show "BATTERY SYSTEM ISSUES". Only the 2007 or newer don't list that, but I'd be hesitant when it comes to age in general.

There is no cut-off line. 04-09 represent substantial risk. 08-09 are higher in hot climates. They have a tendency for the batteries to physically leak and disable the car.

Expect another $4-5K in repairing auction G2 Prius. Assume bad battery and ABS actuator.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673074)
There's a 2008 Ford hybrid on that list that says "hybrid battery failure, will need towed."

More often than not, the FEH/MMH simply need a recharge. 05-08 have a built-in jump starter that allows on-board charging from the 12V (best if done attached to a running jump vehicle). 09+ do not have the jump starter and must be disassembled and charged. I do 1-2 dozen a year for folks that let them sit until they discharge. Pandemic had me particularly busy with 09-10. Had 4 on site at one time.

Isaac Zachary 08-17-2022 01:33 AM

Ya, mine also may need an engine block (need to find out why it burns oil, could be just a PCV valve hopefully) and a catalytic converter (in a California compliant state).

I have a 6 cell NiMH charger and a capacity tester. I tested all the modules and one just wouldn't stop acting like it had a flat cell. I replaced that one and two others that had the lowest capacity with three newer modules. I haven't driven it enough to really see how it'll react with the newer modules.

S Keith 08-17-2022 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673086)
Ya, mine also may need an engine block (need to find out why it burns oil, could be just a PCV valve hopefully) and a catalytic converter (in a California compliant state).

it's a Prius. Those that don't burn oil are rare. It's the nature of the beast. When you start and stop an engine 30 times a drive, you get a lot of heat cycles on it. Crap accumulates in the rings and grooves, etc. Folks, including myself, have had success soaking the cylinders with Berryman's B-9 (chem-dip) down the spark plug holes for 24-48 hours. Neighbor has 300K+ on his 2007, and it was GUZZLING oil - about 1 qt/400 miles. After a treatment, it cut oil burn to 1.5qt/5K mile.

I did it to my ratmobile, and I haven't had to add oil for about 2000 miles with it just below the top mark of the dipstick. It burned 2qt/5K mile before.

If you have P0420, it could be solely due to your oil burn rate.

Quote:

I have a 6 cell NiMH charger and a capacity tester. I tested all the modules and one just wouldn't stop acting like it had a flat cell. I replaced that one and two others that had the lowest capacity with three newer modules. I haven't driven it enough to really see how it'll react with the newer modules.
Shortcut: Discharge the battery in "N" until the HV battery isolates. Let the battery sit for a full 48 hours. Check all module voltages. Modules lower than 0.05V below the highest voltage module should just be replaced. End modules can be up to 0.10V below the high module.

"newer modules" - Did you test those too? Unless you're buying from reputable sources, you may be getting garbage.

Unless it's a high end unit capable of about 20A discharge, it's likely not useful on its own. You need to add a ~60A load test. hit the module with the 100A 12V load testers and record voltage drop. Compare all 28. Discard the outliers.

One more thing about Gen3 Prius... they EAT engines. You may have heard about head gasket issues, but it's way worse than that. Without fail, after another 10-20K miles, need another head gasket, or a thrown rod. If a Gen3 has a bad head gasket, it needs a new engine. Period.

DO NOT FOLLOW TOYOTA'S RECOMMENDATION TO CHANGE OIL @ 10k MILES IF USING SYNTHETIC. STICK WITH 5K MILES.

seuadr 08-17-2022 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S Keith (Post 673085)
09+ do not have the jump starter and must be disassembled and charged.

they must've added it back by 2018, because mine did the same thing and i was able to jump it.

mort 08-17-2022 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S Keith (Post 673085)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary View Post
There's a 2008 Ford hybrid on that list that says "hybrid battery failure, will need towed."

More often than not, the FEH/MMH simply need a recharge. 05-08 have a built-in jump starter that allows on-board charging from the 12V (best if done attached to a running jump vehicle). 09+ do not have the jump starter and must be disassembled and charged. I do 1-2 dozen a year for folks that let them sit until they discharge. Pandemic had me particularly busy with 09-10. Had 4 on site at one time.

Those years look funny.
I'm pretty sure the only Ford hybrid in 2008 was the Escape (hybrid from 2005 thru 2012 And again from 2020). The first year Fusion & Milan hybrids were 2010.
-mort

Isaac Zachary 08-17-2022 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S Keith (Post 673087)
it's a Prius. Those that don't burn oil are rare. It's the nature of the beast. When you start and stop an engine 30 times a drive, you get a lot of heat cycles on it. Crap accumulates in the rings and grooves, etc. Folks, including myself, have had success soaking the cylinders with Berryman's B-9 (chem-dip) down the spark plug holes for 24-48 hours. Neighbor has 300K+ on his 2007, and it was GUZZLING oil - about 1 qt/400 miles. After a treatment, it cut oil burn to 1.5qt/5K mile.

I did it to my ratmobile, and I haven't had to add oil for about 2000 miles with it just below the top mark of the dipstick. It burned 2qt/5K mile before.

If you have P0420, it could be solely due to your oil burn rate.



Shortcut: Discharge the battery in "N" until the HV battery isolates. Let the battery sit for a full 48 hours. Check all module voltages. Modules lower than 0.05V below the highest voltage module should just be replaced. End modules can be up to 0.10V below the high module.

"newer modules" - Did you test those too? Unless you're buying from reputable sources, you may be getting garbage.

Unless it's a high end unit capable of about 20A discharge, it's likely not useful on its own. You need to add a ~60A load test. hit the module with the 100A 12V load testers and record voltage drop. Compare all 28. Discard the outliers.

One more thing about Gen3 Prius... they EAT engines. You may have heard about head gasket issues, but it's way worse than that. Without fail, after another 10-20K miles, need another head gasket, or a thrown rod. If a Gen3 has a bad head gasket, it needs a new engine. Period.

DO NOT FOLLOW TOYOTA'S RECOMMENDATION TO CHANGE OIL @ 10k MILES IF USING SYNTHETIC. STICK WITH 5K MILES.

I'll try fixing the rings. But I'd also like to get a scope and see if the cylinders are damaged (which is what happens if the rings seize.)

I tested the newer modules and they had more capacity than any of mine.

redpoint5 08-17-2022 12:47 PM

Yikes, I guess my habit of changing the oil ever 12,000 miles might have been pushing it... then again, I was doing 70% of those miles in EV mode, so maybe only 4,000 miles on the engine between changes.

That said, plenty of trips where the engine would only run for 1 minute before I got home and parked.

Ecky 08-18-2022 09:23 AM

I was pretty heavily involved in the G1 Insight community, and still admin the Facebook page. In my decade of ownership, I never had a battery issue. However, it had received a new hybrid battery from Honda under warranty a few years before I bought the car. I eventually sold the battery from my 250k mile car for around $800 and put in a high performance (non-hybrid) engine to goof off with for a few years.

- It's pretty much to be assumed when buying a (2000-2006) Insight that it has a bad battery, or will have one soon.

- Heat kills batteries faster. I would think twice about owning a hybrid in an extremely hot climate.

- Aftermarket batteries are as good as their warranty. The owners of many of the aftermarket battery companies are also enthusiasts and are involved in the communities, so there is a degree of trust there - even knowing the batteries are only good for 4-5 years.

- Brand new aftermarket Chinese cells don't seem to hold out much better than 15-20 year old OEM cells that have been handpicked.

- Bumblebee sells a decent battery. $2000 for a Camry, $1400-2000 for an Insight.

- To my knowledge, Honda's IMA system is the only one that will run with a completely failed or absent hybrid battery.

I briefly had an electrical issue (caused by a water leak, caused by my own tinkering) that disabled my hybrid system, and I found it difficult to live with how much slower the car was. Fuel economy was down maybe... 10%? Later, I drove the car for around a year with a voluntarily removed battery, and found that, under the condition of having consciously removed it, I really didn't mind driving the car without it. Sure, it was slower, but more like "normal 80's economy car" slow. In other words, context was key.

~

This time around, I purchased a non-hybrid, but not because I wouldn't trust owning one. However, this being the newest car I've ever owned (at 7 years old), I actually view a lot of the electronics in it rather dubiously. For instance, if the infotainment system dies, I have no idea how affected the rest of the car would be. A lot of critical settings reside in it, and I'm not sure if needs to be functional for them to work.

Off the top of my head, this car's complex electronics include:
-Infotainment
-Keyless entry and start
-Push-to-start button
-Light sensing headlights
-Headlights that follow the steering angle
-Automatic wipers
-Lane detection
-Backup radar
-Backup camera
-Blind spot detection
-Automatic rolldown of the windows when latching and unlatching the top
-Automatic equalizer depending on if the top is up or down
-Traction and stability control

The engine controls are also wicked sensitive. It has a 14:1 compression ratio and gets away with this by controlling ignition timing very reactively, and to a tenth of a degree. How is that going to age?

So much of this is controlled by a nest of computers and relays. While electronics don't seem too bothered by miles, they DO fail with age. I can see it becoming a basket case once gremlins begin, even without a hybrid system.

That said, I don't see the alternative. With any luck the car will last until car ownership is no longer the standard. Meanwhile there are plenty of 34 year old Miatas still on the road, because they're less complex than a modern toaster oven.

JSH 08-18-2022 01:12 PM

Ecky's post is key to this discussion. What got this topic going was my assertion that economically there is no reason that every vehicle today shouldn't be at least a hybrid. The extra initial cost is paid back many times over in fuel savings over in the life of the car.

There have been concerns about the life of a hybrid battery - and yes - they will die and most won't be replaced and the car will be scrapped. That is fine.

There has been discussion about how much easier it is to keep a conventional gas car on the road but the examples have been 15 to 35 years old. That is not the reality of today. Today's non-hybrid cars are much more complex than cars made decades ago. We live in an era where computers are required to change the lead acid starting battery and brake pads. Where HVAC controls and other basic functions are controlled by touchscreens. Where the typical car has miles of electrical wires and 1,000 or more chips. These aren't cars that are going to be fixed by the typical DIY mechanic 15 to 20 years from now.

There is also the reality that if we are talking about the working poor that can't afford anything more than a 15 year old car - generally these aren't homeowners. They are renting and most rentals have pretty strict rules against DIY repairs on the property. So even if someone knew how to fix the car, and had the computers to do it, they don't have the physical space to do the repairs. The vast majority of auto maintenance and repairs are done by profession mechanics.


Some highlights from the EPA vehicle trend report (2020 model year)
  1. Turbocharged engines are rapidly increasing. The Europeans lead the way. 99% of BMW and Mercedes are turbocharged and 92% of VWs are. US automakers are gaining fast - 79% of Ford and 43% of GM. The Japanese and Koreas lag but they are adding turbos too. (Toyota is last at 3% but their newest engine is a twin-turbo hybrid)
  2. 98% of cars sold have an automatic transmission. 52% have 7 or more gears.
  3. 57% have direct injection and the high pressure fuel systems that come with that
  4. 53% have stop / start.

Isaac Zachary 08-18-2022 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSH (Post 673157)
Today's non-hybrid cars are much more complex than cars made decades ago. We live in an era where computers are required to change the lead acid starting battery and brake pads. Where HVAC controls and other basic functions are controlled by touchscreens. Where the typical car has miles of electrical wires and 1,000 or more chips. These aren't cars that are going to be fixed by the typical DIY mechanic 15 to 20 years from now.

I think this is an excellent point. For an example, the radio doesn't work on my 9-year-old Avalon and I have no idea of how to fix it, except take it to a mechanic who can, which would likely be at a dealership, which I won't do because they had already "fixed it" and a couple years later it stopped working again.

It became too complicated for me to replace the brake fluid, so I had another shop do it, which bothers me because I'm weird and have a phobia of mechanics saying they did something but never really did do it. Plus they didn't use the brake fluid I would have preferred, assuming they actually changed the brake fluid.

This brings up the question, then what can a person do for cheap transportation? Yes, one could get a better paying job, move where other costs are cheaper, etc. But what if someone has a reason not to do that? What would be a cheap option in 15 to 20 years from now? Or is this going to be like the smartphone craze where years ago no one in their right mind, except the filthy rich, would spend more than a couple hundred dollars on a cellphone, if that. But now you go to a country where the average wage is $100 per week and somehow everyone has a $1,000 brand new iPhone.

This also brings up right-to-repair of course.

redpoint5 08-18-2022 01:33 PM

Given Ecky's example above, assuming the hybrid system improves fuel economy by 10% in a Honda Insight, I make the following assumptions and analysis;

12,000 miles driven per year
65 MPG average
$3 / gallon average fuel cost
15 year battery lifespan

2,769 gallons of fuel, $8,307

Without the hybrid battery and 10% worse fuel economy;
3,045 gallons of fuel, $9,138

$830 in fuel savings for the hybrid system in the Insight over 15 years.


This underscores my point about how hybrid tech has diminishing returns the smaller and more fuel efficient a vehicle is.

Regarding the complex nature of modern cars, the electronics can be replaced with new modules.

... My unmodern by today's standards 2006 Acura had a lose power cable to the DVD player in the trunk due to my tinkering, and my touchscreen wouldn't function without that. It made precisely controlling my HVAC and radio impossible. I can only imagine what a dead Tesla screen limits.

Isaac Zachary 08-18-2022 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673160)
This underscores my point about how hybrid tech has diminishing returns the smaller and more fuel efficient a vehicle is.

You are right.

2020 Toyota Sienna V6: 20mpg combined @ 12,000 miles per year for 15 years @ $3 per gallon is $27,000. In the 2020 Toyota Sienna hybrid with those same numbers but @36mpg it's $15,000 total.

That's $12,000 in savings, much greater than the $7,000 battery. And if you factor in fuel is probably going to be more like $4 or $5 average for the next 15 years a person would save even more.

JSH 08-18-2022 01:49 PM

1 Attachment(s)
A mild hybrid improves fuel economy by about 15%. A full hybrid by about 30%. No need to make theoretically calculations there are plenty of vehicles with standard and hybrid powertrains.

https://ecomodder.com/forum/attachme...3&d=1660841286

You can replace electronic modules as long as they are manufactured and sold. Automakers only are required to provide spare parts while the vehicle has a warranty. After that they are free to discontinue them. Popular models will get aftermarket support but with low volume models or even low volume trims you may be out of luck

Isaac Zachary 08-18-2022 02:33 PM

With hybrids it's more than just the battery and motor-generator(s). There's a reason they feel lethargic with a drained or dead HV battery. The engine is tuned for fuel mileage (e.g. atkinson cycle) which you can't do in non-hybrids without making them feel lethargic or some other disadvantage.

In other words, taking the battery out of the equation may make only a 10% change, but it isn't the only part of the equation.

redpoint5 08-18-2022 02:37 PM

... then we're back to the junkyard method of keeping an old car on the road. An old electronic module from the junkyard is more likely to be useful than a 15 year old traction battery. What percent of vehicles get scrapped because infotainment components couldn't be sourced?

Only way I can see hybrids or EVs on the road longer term is if 3rd parties create affordable batteries. This goes back to the main topic of this thread; that traction batteries have a shelf-life that is independent of use. If I mothballed a conventional vehicle for 20 years, I could expect it to run well after changing fluids. Not so with anything with a traction battery.

freebeard 08-18-2022 03:10 PM

This Photochop dates to 2013. The first entry in my Photoshops album.

https://ecomodder.com/forum/member-f...7-12-29-57.png

Prius donor [underbody aero] with Golf suspension, 36HP drivetrain and Porsche alternator/cooling fan running at 1:1 off the crank with all eleven fan blades.

The premise was that improving the Cd from 0.41 to >0.28 for the 36HP engine would break the stock Beetle 40MPG barrier. Prolly equal to the hybrid drivetrain.

Nathan jones 08-18-2022 03:10 PM

You can get new cells. Easy and cheap to replace. I think two centre cells have been common, if there are any common faults

https://melasta.net/products/7-2v-6a...for-hybrid-car

Like pattern parts

Most likely they made them for Toyota to start, like the 100f "Panasonic" super caps in the bcm that were Chinese with the labels removed

...still awesome gear :cool:

JSH 08-18-2022 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673166)
... then we're back to the junkyard method of keeping an old car on the road. An old electronic module from the junkyard is more likely to be useful than a 15 year old traction battery. What percent of vehicles get scrapped because infotainment components couldn't be sourced?

No idea - we are early into the touchscreen to control everything days. We do know that 1.2% of vehicles sold last year had over 200K miles. High mileage cars exist but they aren't by any means common.

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 673166)
Only way I can see hybrids or EVs on the road longer term is if 3rd parties create affordable batteries. This goes back to the main topic of this thread; that traction batteries have a shelf-life that is independent of use. If I mothballed a conventional vehicle for 20 years, I could expect it to run well after changing fluids. Not so with anything with a traction battery.

I'm betting 3rd party batteries would become a lot more common if hybrids were 100% of new vehicle sales instead of 7%. They already exist today.

Isaac Zachary 08-18-2022 05:22 PM

The third party battery is a still a big, "what-if?" As Ecky said, they're as good as their warranty. Bumblebee might be ok, I have no idea, but aren't that much cheaper than an OEM battery that will last at least another 15 years.

As for $70 for some random brand module, that's just crazy as you either buy a few and start the whack-a-mole process or you buy all 28 modules for more than a true, brand-new battery from a Toyota Dealer.

Ecky 08-18-2022 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673164)
With hybrids it's more than just the battery and motor-generator(s). There's a reason they feel lethargic with a drained or dead HV battery. The engine is tuned for fuel mileage (e.g. atkinson cycle) which you can't do in non-hybrids without making them feel lethargic or some other disadvantage.

In other words, taking the battery out of the equation may make only a 10% change, but it isn't the only part of the equation.

This is correct that the hybrid system itself is only a piece - although my new Miata (MX-5) does in fact run the Atkinson cycle without a hybrid system. It does this with complex, sensitive and highly responsive engine control.

The Insight would never have been sold with a 1L engine. Or, if it was, it wouldn't have been sold with the gearing it had. There are highways in the US where it needs to be in 2nd to ascend, without assist. 18 seconds to 60 simply would not be marketable. Change the gearing and you lose another 20%.

With a modern Prius, some of that efficiency comes from the engine literally not having a belt drive - every component runs on a high voltage motor, and operates to its own needs, rather than having to clutch on and off of the engine's RPM.

~

Off topic, but adopting a higher base voltage (24 or 48) would likely measurably improve non-hybrid vehicle efficiency. I understand why it isn't done, but at some point that bandaid may need to be ripped off.

Ecky 08-18-2022 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 673170)
This Photochop dates to 2013. The first entry in my Photoshops album.

https://ecomodder.com/forum/member-f...7-12-29-57.png

Prius donor [underbody aero] with Golf suspension, 36HP drivetrain and Porsche alternator/cooling fan running at 1:1 off the crank with all eleven fan blades.

The premise was that improving the Cd from 0.41 to >0.28 for the 36HP engine would break the stock Beetle 40MPG barrier. Prolly equal to the hybrid drivetrain.

A modern Jetta will achieve 40-45mpg at 75mph. I'm personally ignorant about these old air cooled engines, but I don't imagine that stock Beetle was getting 40mpg at anything above 40mph - a speed at which a stock Insight will happily cruise at 120mpg, apples to apples.

Ecky 08-18-2022 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary (Post 673187)
The third party battery is a still a big, "what-if?" As Ecky said, they're as good as their warranty. Bumblebee might be ok, I have no idea, but aren't that much cheaper than an OEM battery that will last at least another 15 years.

As for $70 for some random brand module, that's just crazy as you either buy a few and start the whack-a-mole process or you buy all 28 modules for more than a true, brand-new battery from a Toyota Dealer.

Honda's OEM batteries stopped being from the original supplier after 2010ish, and became hardly better than aftermarket - probably because they used the same cheap Chinese cells, because the original Japanese ones simply did not exist anymore. After another 5 years there simply wasn't an OEM battery to purchase, period.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:33 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.5.2
All content copyright EcoModder.com