oil / gasoline price watch
 

Because of the very close relationship between U.S. gas prices and forum activity, I tend to follow news about oil & gasoline price swings. Especially when they're near exremes.

So I thought I'd start this thread for posting interesting tidbits and factoids.

Here's a chart I haven't seen before that helps to illustrate why oil prices crashed in the last year or so. US non-strategic oil stockpiles are through the roof due to the spike in production from fracking/tight oil production in recent years.

Through the winter I kept seeing reports about possibly running out of storage room.

http://ecomodder.com/forum/attachmen...1&d=1462369785

Source: Why oil prices have nowhere left to go but down - MarketWatch

Despite that, U.S. gasoline prices hit a six month high on the weekend.

Talk about mixed signals.

The excuse now is that they don't have storage left and have to increase prices to build more storage.

The reality is that the producers are getting very little $$ and the middle men make more on what does sell.

It appears there's an annual peak in storage that happens in late April / early May. IE right now.

So you guys probably aren't actually going to run out of storage space, if that storage pattern holds for this year.

US gasoline consumption is also at a record high, and US oil production is declining, all of which will draw down those reserves as the "summer driving season" ramps up.

Source: A record month of U.S. gas guzzling

Meanwhile: I keep burning 50+ gallons of diesel every day :D

Your Echo has a diesel? :D

I wondered why that wasn't in the news. As we know, a few months back it was widely reported that storage space was running out.

Many good little Duhmericans have gone out and gotten guzzlers, even if they had something economical before. :/ And I imagine most everyone, guzzler driver or not, is racing around all over creation like a chicken with it's head cut off because of low gas prices.

You know what? Why not. And have 13 kids while you're at it. And run the heat and a/c in the house with all the windows open too. And put Autostarts on everything, and use them judiciously. Really- why not? If you can afford it or have access to the credit to "afford it" then freakin' max everything out. That's livin'. :thumbup:

As gas prices have gotten lower my energy consumption has gone down a well.

My gas usage this heating season was much lower but my electric use has gone up a bit. (ah well $5 a month instead of $3)
I have recently identified some unusual phantom loads that are now addressed (thank you "unused" circuit breaker on 1900's era house)

I guess I don't like to be trendy.

I am tempted to pick up a hourd of energy efficient vehicles while they are cheap, then wear them out later when fuel rises.

I also am repairing my Dodge Pickup so when I have to take it out to move trailers its more fuel efficient, blah, should just leave it with the intake leak and 8mpg.

Ah well, too bad people don't think ahead.

Low fuel prices won't last because nobody but the consumer wants low fuel prices.

Yup! Toyota sells a Ford VTEC diesel conversion kit. The ECU was programmed by VW! It's a very thorough kit, even came with new muffler bearings and reticulation synchronizers.

We up sized a month and a half ago, but for reasons other than low fuel prices, and they played no role whatsoever.

I'm actually surprised that these prices have persisted as long as they have.

Fort McMurray wildfire
 

Unfortunately, the latest thing affecting global oil prices is the wildfire that's caused an evacuation of ~90,000 people in Alberta.

Fort McMurray fires shut down more oilsands facilities, knock one million barrels offline

Oil went up a few percent yesterday as a result, and will probably go up more in the days ahead. The fire usn't under control.

The good news, from what I've read, is there haven't been any fatalities, despite the close calls during evacuation and all the property destroyed.

Below NSFW: 2 videos of residents barely getting out. Mute if you're at work or have sensitive ears -- language NSFW, especially the 2nd one.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieTQvIdG-Vo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOC5YGyoGDw

My distance driven in the car has declined in the last year as I use the electric bike more, but my average fuel economy has dropped too. The miles I do on the e-bike are often the best hypermile miles. Also, I don't hypermile as stringently as I used to. Current tank looks to be about 58mpg.

I noticed those stories about storage too. Irritating to see people return to guzzlers.

Good time to buy a second hand Prius. Prices must be lower than one would expect for those 2011 and 2012 models.

Regarding the Alberta stuff above - every little thing is going to once again stray being an excuse to raise prices again. Especially in California.

Prices here have not seemed to dip, really. I buy all my gasoline from Costco, and if you look at my fuel log you see that the prices I pay are lower than the $3+ I was beginning to pay this time last year but the $2.70-2.80 I currently pay is not as low as the lows of winter 2014-2015. So, there you go... But a Prius cheap in another part of the country, drive it here, and sell it higher? hahaha.

So how's this a problem? Just leave the oil in the ground until you need it.

But still having time to record video of their evacuation? I've been in that situation myself, and believe me, taking pictures was the last thing on my mind.

Can't afford to leave it in the ground. Gotta cover your fixed costs! Ironically, the lower the price, the more you've got to pump to break even.

---

U.S. active oil rigs declined again.

U.S. oil production is now -8% from its peak last summer.

I discuss current events with a client, but try to stay informed in general, and I kept reading about that. I am kind of surprised they did not mention how this would affect gas prices.

"Unhappy to pay more at the pump? Imagine how much worse it is for these friendly Canadians that have lost everything!"

I was surprised to learn that northern Canada was almost as warm as Arizona!

Did anyone else notice the truck and SUV to car ratio from the fire video? I didn't know Canadians could match the US appetite for large vehicles.

I guess if I had to choose 1 vehicle to rescue, it would be the expensive one.

Alberta wildfire growing, may reach Saskatchewan, Canadian official says - CNN.com

I hope everyone is able to stay safe.

1 fatality, I read.

Oh yeah. Alberta is Canada's Texas, in many ways.

And a good bit warmer than northern Nevada has been these past few weeks. We had a bit of snow in the valleys just a week or so ago (and hail enough to whiten the ground last Thursday).

oil production disruption at a 5 year high
 

Supply loss from various disruptions is now greater than the recent oversupply of 1-2 million barrels/day (a number I keep reading):

http://ecomodder.com/forum/attachmen...1&d=1462900417

Crude prices are obviously an indicator of gas prices but just because oil is cheap doesn't mean gas is cheap. I could have a semi tanker of crude oil in my driveway and if i ran out of gas I'd still be walking or riding my bike.

An extreme real world example of this right now is Nigeria, a major world oil producer suffering gasoline lines because its gasoline is imported and its domestic refineries are aged. The cheap oil is weakening their ability to buy gasoline from abroad because gasoline has become relatively expensive. People there are pissed.

Right on schedule, U.S. oil stocks posted their first decline in several months. "Surprise!" some reports say. (Obviously they never looked at the typical May pattern.)

Result: oil hit a fresh 2016 high this AM.

Global oil markets 'heading towards balance': IEA
Global oil markets 'heading towards balance': IEA

Wel, drat. Looks like the $10 Shell gift card I got won't fill my tank.

I woke up this morning with a simile metaphor talking-point in my head:

We all know (from Open Source principles) about 'free as in speech' and 'free as in beer'. It turns out there is also 'free as in puppy'. So I ordered things this way:

• Free as in speech: Solar (to include wind, wave and hydro) and Lunar (tidal) power as it is democratizing
• Free as in beer: petroleum at $1 in/$100 out
• Free as in puppy: nuclear power, which cost mostly after the energy has already been consumed

Where it put coal and the last of the petroleum?

Nuclear energy could make 99% less waste, just need the MSR thorium reactors from the 1950s put on line.

"Free as in puppy" has an equivalent in one of my hobbies: "Free boat!"

$48 wti / $2.24 US gas
 

More price chatter, since this thread has been bumped...

US oil hit $48 today. The newsreels and Goldman Sachs say that current supply disruptions (pipeline sabotage in Nigeria, Alberta wildfires, etc...) have effectively removed the overproduction glut from the market. (At least temporarily.)

Not coincidentally, today the average gas price in the States hit a 6 month high of ~$2.24 / gal.

The Saudis threatened to dump US Treasuries if the 28 minutes pages were to be released. Max Keiser said "Bring it on! The bond market is starving." Of course now the 28 pages are a part of bigger disclosure. :)

rmay635703 -- Agreed. But at this point how many years of Thorium power to pay forward the thousand-plus years of managing the high-level wastes produced to date?

Edit: I just noticed: 'Free as in speech' should included Terran, for geothermal.

Brings up another point, Thorium power can be used to take existing nuclear waste and re-use it and reduce it.

I like Freebeard's analogy, even if my opinions differ slightly. I'm open to modern nuke implementations if the proof of concept works out well.

That reminds me, a friend of mine keeps telling me to pick up a free hot-tub from CL.

I have the same policy about hot-tubs as I do about boats; it's better to be friends with someone who owns one than to be the friend that owns one.

Or free horse. At least you don't have to feed the boat every day :-)

Ha! Yes. But if it's too big, you still need to find a stable somewhere to keep it.

America is thirsty
 

Possibly related to the above (you think?)...

Former Shell CEO: Oil production won't meet demand in 5 years

$2.30 average ahead of U.S. long weekend
 

Gas hit 2.30 (average) in the U.S. today - it's de-coupled from oil prices which have been declining for the past few days.

Gas Prices Rise as Summer Driving Season Nears - 24/7 Wall St.

The price usually peaks in early to mid-summer. I wonder if that will be any different this year with oil climbing.

Good thing I now use less than half as much gas as I did this time last year!!

When fuel oil prices were peaked in the east coast,
supplies where higher than they had ever been before, then the single seller Morgan Stanley had financial issues as their ability to buy and hold was finally eroded. Thus beginning the financial crisis.

Cheapest gas in finland is 5.59 us dollars/gallon :D