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MetroMPG 05-04-2016 09:52 AM

oil / gasoline price watch
 
1 Attachment(s)
Because of the very close relationship between U.S. gas prices and forum activity, I tend to follow news about oil & gasoline price swings. Especially when they're near exremes.

So I thought I'd start this thread for posting interesting tidbits and factoids.

Here's a chart I haven't seen before that helps to illustrate why oil prices crashed in the last year or so. US non-strategic oil stockpiles are through the roof due to the spike in production from fracking/tight oil production in recent years.

Through the winter I kept seeing reports about possibly running out of storage room.

http://ecomodder.com/forum/attachmen...1&d=1462369785

Source: Why oil prices have nowhere left to go but down - MarketWatch

Despite that, U.S. gasoline prices hit a six month high on the weekend.

Talk about mixed signals.

rmay635703 05-04-2016 10:17 AM

The excuse now is that they don't have storage left and have to increase prices to build more storage.

The reality is that the producers are getting very little $$ and the middle men make more on what does sell.

MetroMPG 05-04-2016 10:43 AM

It appears there's an annual peak in storage that happens in late April / early May. IE right now.

So you guys probably aren't actually going to run out of storage space, if that storage pattern holds for this year.

US gasoline consumption is also at a record high, and US oil production is declining, all of which will draw down those reserves as the "summer driving season" ramps up.

Quote:

The Energy Information Administration says U.S. gasoline demand climbed to 9.2 million barrels a day in February, a record for the month. Demand was 6.4 per cent higher than a year ago, making it the largest 12-month percentage increase in nearly four decades.
Source: A record month of U.S. gas guzzling

jcp123 05-04-2016 10:55 AM

Meanwhile: I keep burning 50+ gallons of diesel every day :D

MetroMPG 05-04-2016 11:17 AM

Your Echo has a diesel? :D

Frank Lee 05-04-2016 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetroMPG (Post 513385)
So you guys probably aren't actually going to run out of storage space, if that storage pattern holds for this year.

US gasoline consumption is also at a record high, and US oil production is declining, all of which will draw down those reserves as the "summer driving season" ramps up.

I wondered why that wasn't in the news. As we know, a few months back it was widely reported that storage space was running out.

Many good little Duhmericans have gone out and gotten guzzlers, even if they had something economical before. :/ And I imagine most everyone, guzzler driver or not, is racing around all over creation like a chicken with it's head cut off because of low gas prices.

You know what? Why not. And have 13 kids while you're at it. And run the heat and a/c in the house with all the windows open too. And put Autostarts on everything, and use them judiciously. Really- why not? If you can afford it or have access to the credit to "afford it" then freakin' max everything out. That's livin'. :thumbup:

rmay635703 05-04-2016 01:12 PM

As gas prices have gotten lower my energy consumption has gone down a well.

My gas usage this heating season was much lower but my electric use has gone up a bit. (ah well $5 a month instead of $3)
I have recently identified some unusual phantom loads that are now addressed (thank you "unused" circuit breaker on 1900's era house)

I guess I don't like to be trendy.

I am tempted to pick up a hourd of energy efficient vehicles while they are cheap, then wear them out later when fuel rises.

I also am repairing my Dodge Pickup so when I have to take it out to move trailers its more fuel efficient, blah, should just leave it with the intake leak and 8mpg.

Ah well, too bad people don't think ahead.

Low fuel prices won't last because nobody but the consumer wants low fuel prices.

jcp123 05-04-2016 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetroMPG (Post 513388)
Your Echo has a diesel? :D

Yup! Toyota sells a Ford VTEC diesel conversion kit. The ECU was programmed by VW! It's a very thorough kit, even came with new muffler bearings and reticulation synchronizers.

We up sized a month and a half ago, but for reasons other than low fuel prices, and they played no role whatsoever.

I'm actually surprised that these prices have persisted as long as they have.

MetroMPG 05-06-2016 07:08 AM

Fort McMurray wildfire
 
Unfortunately, the latest thing affecting global oil prices is the wildfire that's caused an evacuation of ~90,000 people in Alberta.

Fort McMurray fires shut down more oilsands facilities, knock one million barrels offline

Oil went up a few percent yesterday as a result, and will probably go up more in the days ahead. The fire usn't under control.

The good news, from what I've read, is there haven't been any fatalities, despite the close calls during evacuation and all the property destroyed.

Quote:

People who fled the flames in Fort McMurray, Alta., shouldn't expect to head back to their homes in the days ahead, the premier says, citing safety concerns as fire crews work to contain the growing, shifting blaze.
Below NSFW: 2 videos of residents barely getting out. Mute if you're at work or have sensitive ears -- language NSFW, especially the 2nd one.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieTQvIdG-Vo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOC5YGyoGDw

California98Civic 05-06-2016 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmay635703 (Post 513397)
As gas prices have gotten lower my energy consumption has gone down a well....

My distance driven in the car has declined in the last year as I use the electric bike more, but my average fuel economy has dropped too. The miles I do on the e-bike are often the best hypermile miles. Also, I don't hypermile as stringently as I used to. Current tank looks to be about 58mpg.

I noticed those stories about storage too. Irritating to see people return to guzzlers.

Good time to buy a second hand Prius. Prices must be lower than one would expect for those 2011 and 2012 models.

jcp123 05-06-2016 10:46 AM

Regarding the Alberta stuff above - every little thing is going to once again stray being an excuse to raise prices again. Especially in California.

California98Civic 05-06-2016 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcp123 (Post 513542)
Regarding the Alberta stuff above - every little thing is going to once again stray being an excuse to raise prices again. Especially in California.

Prices here have not seemed to dip, really. I buy all my gasoline from Costco, and if you look at my fuel log you see that the prices I pay are lower than the $3+ I was beginning to pay this time last year but the $2.70-2.80 I currently pay is not as low as the lows of winter 2014-2015. So, there you go... But a Prius cheap in another part of the country, drive it here, and sell it higher? hahaha.

jamesqf 05-06-2016 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank Lee (Post 513396)
I wondered why that wasn't in the news. As we know, a few months back it was widely reported that storage space was running out.

So how's this a problem? Just leave the oil in the ground until you need it.

jamesqf 05-06-2016 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetroMPG (Post 513527)
Below NSFW: 2 videos of residents barely getting out.

But still having time to record video of their evacuation? I've been in that situation myself, and believe me, taking pictures was the last thing on my mind.

MetroMPG 05-06-2016 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesqf (Post 513576)
So how's this a problem? Just leave the oil in the ground until you need it.

Can't afford to leave it in the ground. Gotta cover your fixed costs! Ironically, the lower the price, the more you've got to pump to break even.

---

U.S. active oil rigs declined again.

U.S. oil production is now -8% from its peak last summer.

Xist 05-06-2016 03:21 PM

I discuss current events with a client, but try to stay informed in general, and I kept reading about that. I am kind of surprised they did not mention how this would affect gas prices.

"Unhappy to pay more at the pump? Imagine how much worse it is for these friendly Canadians that have lost everything!"

I was surprised to learn that northern Canada was almost as warm as Arizona!

redpoint5 05-06-2016 08:59 PM

Did anyone else notice the truck and SUV to car ratio from the fire video? I didn't know Canadians could match the US appetite for large vehicles.

I guess if I had to choose 1 vehicle to rescue, it would be the expensive one.

Xist 05-08-2016 07:18 AM

Quote:

the Suncor and Syncrude oil companies to the north of Fort McMurray are evacuating personnel. Officials stressed that the company properties don't appear to be in danger from the fire.
Alberta wildfire growing, may reach Saskatchewan, Canadian official says - CNN.com

I hope everyone is able to stay safe.

MetroMPG 05-08-2016 07:52 AM

1 fatality, I read.

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 513627)
Did anyone else notice the truck and SUV to car ratio from the fire video? I didn't know Canadians could match the US appetite for large vehicles.

Oh yeah. Alberta is Canada's Texas, in many ways.

jamesqf 05-08-2016 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xist (Post 513604)
I was surprised to learn that northern Canada was almost as warm as Arizona!

And a good bit warmer than northern Nevada has been these past few weeks. We had a bit of snow in the valleys just a week or so ago (and hail enough to whiten the ground last Thursday).

MetroMPG 05-10-2016 01:15 PM

oil production disruption at a 5 year high
 
1 Attachment(s)
Supply loss from various disruptions is now greater than the recent oversupply of 1-2 million barrels/day (a number I keep reading):

http://ecomodder.com/forum/attachmen...1&d=1462900417

ksa8907 05-12-2016 05:36 AM

Crude prices are obviously an indicator of gas prices but just because oil is cheap doesn't mean gas is cheap. I could have a semi tanker of crude oil in my driveway and if i ran out of gas I'd still be walking or riding my bike.

California98Civic 05-12-2016 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksa8907 (Post 514040)
Crude prices are obviously an indicator of gas prices but just because oil is cheap doesn't mean gas is cheap. I could have a semi tanker of crude oil in my driveway and if i ran out of gas I'd still be walking or riding my bike.

An extreme real world example of this right now is Nigeria, a major world oil producer suffering gasoline lines because its gasoline is imported and its domestic refineries are aged. The cheap oil is weakening their ability to buy gasoline from abroad because gasoline has become relatively expensive. People there are pissed.

MetroMPG 05-12-2016 09:41 AM

Right on schedule, U.S. oil stocks posted their first decline in several months. "Surprise!" some reports say. (Obviously they never looked at the typical May pattern.)

Result: oil hit a fresh 2016 high this AM.

Global oil markets 'heading towards balance': IEA
Global oil markets 'heading towards balance': IEA

jcp123 05-12-2016 04:50 PM

Wel, drat. Looks like the $10 Shell gift card I got won't fill my tank.

freebeard 05-16-2016 12:00 PM

I woke up this morning with a simile metaphor talking-point in my head:

We all know (from Open Source principles) about 'free as in speech' and 'free as in beer'. It turns out there is also 'free as in puppy'. So I ordered things this way:
  • Free as in speech: Solar (to include wind, wave and hydro) and Lunar (tidal) power as it is democratizing
  • Free as in beer: petroleum at $1 in/$100 out
  • Free as in puppy: nuclear power, which cost mostly after the energy has already been consumed

Where it put coal and the last of the petroleum?

rmay635703 05-17-2016 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 514319)
I woke up this morning with a simile metaphor talking-point in
  • Free as in puppy: nuclear power, which cost mostly after the energy has already been consumed

Where it put coal and the last of the petroleum?

Nuclear energy could make 99% less waste, just need the MSR thorium reactors from the 1950s put on line.

MetroMPG 05-17-2016 01:20 PM

"Free as in puppy" has an equivalent in one of my hobbies: "Free boat!"

MetroMPG 05-17-2016 01:25 PM

$48 wti / $2.24 US gas
 
More price chatter, since this thread has been bumped...

US oil hit $48 today. The newsreels and Goldman Sachs say that current supply disruptions (pipeline sabotage in Nigeria, Alberta wildfires, etc...) have effectively removed the overproduction glut from the market. (At least temporarily.)

Not coincidentally, today the average gas price in the States hit a 6 month high of ~$2.24 / gal.

freebeard 05-17-2016 03:39 PM

The Saudis threatened to dump US Treasuries if the 28 minutes pages were to be released. Max Keiser said "Bring it on! The bond market is starving." Of course now the 28 pages are a part of bigger disclosure. :)

rmay635703 -- Agreed. But at this point how many years of Thorium power to pay forward the thousand-plus years of managing the high-level wastes produced to date?

Edit: I just noticed: 'Free as in speech' should included Terran, for geothermal.

rmay635703 05-17-2016 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebeard (Post 514432)
rmay635703 -- Agreed. But at this point how many years of Thorium power to pay forward the thousand-plus years of managing the high-level wastes produced to date?

Edit: I just noticed: 'Free as in speech' should included Terran, for geothermal.

Brings up another point, Thorium power can be used to take existing nuclear waste and re-use it and reduce it.

redpoint5 05-17-2016 06:43 PM

I like Freebeard's analogy, even if my opinions differ slightly. I'm open to modern nuke implementations if the proof of concept works out well.

That reminds me, a friend of mine keeps telling me to pick up a free hot-tub from CL.

I have the same policy about hot-tubs as I do about boats; it's better to be friends with someone who owns one than to be the friend that owns one.

jamesqf 05-18-2016 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetroMPG (Post 514419)
"Free as in puppy" has an equivalent in one of my hobbies: "Free boat!"

Or free horse. At least you don't have to feed the boat every day :-)

MetroMPG 05-18-2016 01:12 PM

Ha! Yes. But if it's too big, you still need to find a stable somewhere to keep it.

MetroMPG 05-20-2016 11:17 AM

America is thirsty
 
Quote:

“April continued this year’s trend of record gasoline demand thanks to low prices,” said Erica Bowman, API chief economist.

Total motor gasoline deliveries, a measure of consumer gasoline demand, rose 2.5 percent from April 2015 to average nearly 9.4 million barrels per day–the highest April deliveries on record.
API | Demand for petroleum rose in April (includes monthly statistical report)

MetroMPG 05-20-2016 11:20 AM

Possibly related to the above (you think?)...

Former Shell CEO: Oil production won't meet demand in 5 years

Quote:

While energy companies have put the brakes on capital spending thanks to low crude prices, in a few short years there won't even be enough oil to meet demand, former Shell Oil CEO John Hofmeister predicted Thursday.

MetroMPG 05-24-2016 09:03 AM

$2.30 average ahead of U.S. long weekend
 
Gas hit 2.30 (average) in the U.S. today - it's de-coupled from oil prices which have been declining for the past few days.

Quote:

According to GasBuddy, no state still sports an average price below $2 a gallon.
Gas Prices Rise as Summer Driving Season Nears - 24/7 Wall St.

The price usually peaks in early to mid-summer. I wonder if that will be any different this year with oil climbing.

Natalya 05-24-2016 09:27 AM

Good thing I now use less than half as much gas as I did this time last year!!

rmay635703 05-24-2016 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetroMPG (Post 514945)
Gas hit 2.30 (average) in the U.S. today - it's de-coupled from oil prices which have been declining for the past few days.



Gas Prices Rise as Summer Driving Season Nears - 24/7 Wall St.

The price usually peaks in early to mid-summer. I wonder if that will be any different this year with oil climbing.

When fuel oil prices were peaked in the east coast,
supplies where higher than they had ever been before, then the single seller Morgan Stanley had financial issues as their ability to buy and hold was finally eroded. Thus beginning the financial crisis.

Fingie 05-24-2016 11:51 AM

Cheapest gas in finland is 5.59 us dollars/gallon :D


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