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-   -   Oil prices crash 20-30% on collapse of OPEC/Non-OPEC deal, declining demand (https://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/oil-prices-crash-20-30-collapse-opec-non-38216.html)

MetroMPG 03-09-2020 10:17 AM

Oil prices crash 20-30% on collapse of OPEC/Non-OPEC deal, declining demand
 
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=700

Prices were already depressed by declining demand (including by expected effects of the coronavirus spread on transportation) and record production in some non-OPEC countries (hello, US shale oil!).

Last week Russia refused to join OPEC in trimming production to stabilize prices, so Saudi Arabia hit back by starting a price war: by discounting its exports and increasing production.

Quote:

Crude was on track for its biggest one-day drop since the 1991 Gulf war after the Saudi move, which threatens to swamp the oil market with supplies just as the coronavirus outbreak hits demand.
The price shock has spread to stock markets, hitting energy companies particularly hard:

Quote:

“It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s..."
Full article: https://www.ft.com/content/804d6c82-...d-df28cc3c6a68

MetroMPG 03-09-2020 10:23 AM

Time to buy that cute little commuter you've had your eye on!


https://ecomodder.com/forum/attachme...1&d=1544554962

oil pan 4 03-09-2020 11:39 AM

Time to stock up.
I never filled up my 500 gallon propane tank or my stsinless tractor trailer fuel tank.
If EV prices drop enough I might be able to afford a 62kwh leaf battery.

Something like this kind of happened in the late 1990s. Asian markets imploded, but not from pandemic hysteria and the US economy soared high on the cheap oil.

redpoint5 03-09-2020 12:39 PM

Time to buy 500 gallons of diesel. Also a good time to look for deals on an EV. How long until retail pricing reflects this?

Frank Lee 03-09-2020 01:05 PM

I don't have Autostarters on anything so I guess I'll have to go outside now and start everything... just in case I need to go somewhere, sometime. Ah hell, I don't NEED anything so I'll just cruise the main drag in the pickup for kicks. Let's see now, is the fun- like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow- on this end of town, or that end? This end? That end? This end? That end? This end? That end? This end? That end? Gonna go forth and back until I find it! :confused:

RedDevil 03-09-2020 01:21 PM

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/i...bia/index.html
Quote:

Oil crashes by most since 1991 ...
Say say two thousand two zero party over, oops, out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's nineteen ninety-one

Yippeekyaa 03-09-2020 02:01 PM

Gas stations near me were at 2.05 Friday morning, this morning they were 1.88 and 5 hours later at 1.79. Never witnessed it drop so fast before.

MetroMPG 03-09-2020 06:10 PM

This will be a good time to watch whether gas/petrol prices actually follow the pattern of "up like a rocket, down like a parachute."

jjackstone 03-10-2020 12:27 AM

Hope this doesn't hurt new EV sales too much. I think it's a communist(and Arab) plot.

Anyone remember the best price they've paid for gas in the last 30 years or so? Back in '86 there was a price war in the small town of Sandoval, IL. Both stations wanted to say they had the lowest price. I didn't buy at the lowest price. I had to pay 10 cents per gallon. I heard that the lowest price went down to zero. They were actually giving gas away so they could have the lowest price in town.

Damn, I found the story.

https://apnews.com/04ce151ab6c881dccdeae8dbb5243036

JJ

redpoint5 03-10-2020 12:51 AM

Lowest sustained I can remember paying is $0.99 in Oregon. That probably means the Midwest was paying less. That was 1998 or 1999. I could fill the motorcycle, pay with a five, and get change. Fill the 1969 Beetle, pay with a ten, and get change. Fill the Dodge Ram van, pay with a twenty, and get change.

MetroMPG 03-10-2020 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjackstone (Post 618646)
Back in '86 there was a price war in the small town of Sandoval, IL. Both stations wanted to say they had the lowest price. I didn't buy at the lowest price. I had to pay 10 cents per gallon. I heard that the lowest price went down to zero.


That is funny!

MetroMPG 03-10-2020 11:48 AM

First drop in global oil demand since financial crisis
 
Quote:

Global oil demand is set to contract in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade as global economic activity stalls due to the coronavirus, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.


The sharp downward revision in demand expectations came as oil prices dropped by more than a quarter and were set for their biggest one-day fall in 29 years after Saudi Arabia ignited a crude-price war in the market.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...e-2009-due-to/

Numbers: they're forecasting 2020 demand of 99.9 bpd, down from almost 101 million bpd.

They expect the drop to be temporary, with demand rebounding when the epi/pandemic effect on transportation and industry passes.


Unless of course this mess tips countries into recession... then it'll take a bit longer.

Frank Lee 03-10-2020 04:25 PM

Dropped a dime to $2.14 here, woot woot, got that pickup all warmed up.

MetroMPG 03-10-2020 07:03 PM

Gas is under a buck a litre here - first time in I don't remember how long.



(Though that might have been as recently as 2015 or so... I honestly don't pay attention to it that closely.)

TexasCotton 03-11-2020 12:00 AM

Russia/ China
 
Russia

Putin is in a disagreement with the Saudi's and OPEC ….so all of them are pumping and exporting crude into the world market ….regardless of price free fall


China

The CCP is exporting pollution, virus, ozone holes and could care less how the whole world has to deal with any of that. The CCP exported SARS and CORONOVIRUS.. plus they have cut imports of crude oil

ME_Andy 03-11-2020 12:24 AM

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with EV's.

oil pan 4 03-11-2020 09:45 AM

Don't worry, it's all just a russian conspiracy to reelect trump.

Xist 03-11-2020 06:30 PM

1 Attachment(s)
According to Gas Buddy, prices in Arizona have declined 60˘ in the last ten months.
https://ecomodder.com/forum/attachme...1&d=1583962055

The cheapest place in Show Low is $2.399. I wish that I could look up one station's history to see how prices have varied locally.

I bought my first car in 2000 and I got a tank or two for under $1 a gallon with that car.

Piotrsko 03-14-2020 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xist (Post 618759)
I bought my first car in 2000 and I got a tank or two for under $1 a gallon with that car.

In 2000 diesel for the F250 was 45-52 CENTS @ gallon.

redneck 03-18-2020 11:37 PM

.

Oil prices could fall below zero: Analyst

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...w-zero-analyst


Quote:

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the U.S. and global economy to a standstill by prompting “shelter in place” orders, social distancing between people and the cancellation of non-essential travel. The sharp slowdown in economic activity has curtailed the need for oil.

If that weren't enough, Saudi Arabia recently slashed oil prices and raised output after Russia refused to join OPEC in deepening production cuts.

Oil is a 100 million barrel-per-day market, but Sankey says it’s possible that the economic fallout from the pandemic could zap demand, creating a 20 million barrel-per-day surplus.

He says the “physical reality” of the market is that oil is pumped out of the ground and has to be consumed or stored. When the cost of storage goes high enough -- or space runs out -- companies might pay customers to take it.


:turtle:


>

oil pan 4 03-18-2020 11:44 PM

I have a 500 gallon propane tank I could convert to diesel

redpoint5 03-19-2020 12:42 AM

This doesn't bode well. The financial crisis of 2008 involved an economic decrease of 3%, and we're talking a 20% drop in oil consumption? That's a proxy for the economy, so we're talking a drop in economic output of 20%. That alone will kill many people.

oil pan 4 03-19-2020 12:51 AM

Get your money ready stuff is going to get cheap.
I have been waiting for this since the last one.
Platinum is headed for a 20 year low. The only way you can lose money on a super rare element like platinum at a 20 year low is if you lose it.

Xist 03-19-2020 02:16 AM

What is this "Money" that you speak of?

redpoint5 03-19-2020 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 619277)
Get your money ready stuff is going to get cheap.
I have been waiting for this since the last one.
Platinum is headed for a 20 year low. The only way you can lose money on a super rare element like platinum at a 20 year low is if you lose it.

I have been wondering when the opportune time to spend money would be. A prepared person stands to profit regardless of which way the winds are blowing.

That said, I'm prepared to take a momentary loss on the rental property since it's probably the right thing to do.

I do like the properties of platinum. You've piqued my interest even though I generally don't have an interest in hoarding commodities as an investment.

oil pan 4 03-19-2020 08:48 AM

Buying a few ounces isn't hoarding. The institutions that buy thousands and tends of thousands of ounces in hopes of taking advantage of minor price fluctuations are hoarding.
Silver is also down to maybe a 5 year low.

redpoint5 03-19-2020 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 619290)
Buying a few ounces isn't hoarding. The institutions that buy thousands and tends of thousands of ounces in hopes of taking advantage of minor price fluctuations are hoarding.
Silver is also down to maybe a 5 year low.

Hoarding- a stock or store of money or valued objects, typically one that is secret or carefully guarded.

My point is that an investment should do something to grow the economy by being utilized by others, not just sit idle in a safe somewhere. The quantity wasn't what I have an issue with.

oil pan 4 03-19-2020 09:26 AM

It could grow the economy. If you sell your hordes during a shortage, there you go, economy grown.

Each ounce of Pt is potentially 4 to 5 vehicle catalytic converters or one fuel cell for a retarded fuel cell vehicle.

redpoint5 03-19-2020 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4 (Post 619290)
Buying a few ounces isn't hoarding. The institutions that buy thousands and tends of thousands of ounces in hopes of taking advantage of minor price fluctuations are hoarding.
Silver is also down to maybe a 5 year low.

Not the same effect. I don't like investing in commodities for the same reason that I don't like investing in the stock market; it's a zero sum game. For me to profit, it had to come at the expense of someone else.

My preferred investment would probably be real estate.

oil pan 4 03-19-2020 10:18 AM

Hopefully precious metals will be how I get more real estate.
The rental house is only worth like $30,000 but makes around $7,000 per year.
Get all my money doing that every year I won't need a regular job.
By comparison my 401k and guberment TSP both have about 30,000 each in them, typically I make 3% to 10%, in a great year I make 12% to 15%.
With real estate my worst year it still made between 15 and 20%.

MetroMPG 03-19-2020 10:49 AM

Canada's oil patch (Alberta primarily) is currently experiencing unprecedented distress - Canadian oil prices set record lows yesterday at $8/barrel, dramatically below break-even costs:

Quote:

Western Canadian Select (WCS) was changing hands at one point as low as $7.63 US per barrel, down $4.60 from Tuesday's level. The U.S. benchmark known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also fell to below $22 a barrel, a level it has not hit since 2003.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/sto...sday-1.5501335

Companies here are going to go bust. "High cost" producers everywhere are in big trouble. This combination of events is the stuff of the Saudis' & Russians' wildest dreams.


This is going to make life hard for a lot of Albertans.

redpoint5 03-19-2020 12:24 PM

Yes, bad timing on oversupplying oil. Perhaps cheap oil will help us quickly recover our economies after the crisis abates (with exception of local oil industry).

I'm hoping for a permanent shift towards telecommuting, and hopefully major reformations in the health industry will occur. My primary gripes are the inefficiency of having many different insurance companies, employer provided health plans, and independent databases for patient records at each and every facility a person visits. Our personal information is replicated many times over, increasing the attack surface for data breaches and just generally being a huge waste of resources.

serialk11r 03-21-2020 08:51 PM

redpoint and oilpan, you guys have 500 gallon fuel tanks sitting around???

I didn't know that was a thing.

redpoint5 03-22-2020 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by serialk11r (Post 619529)
redpoint and oilpan, you guys have 500 gallon fuel tanks sitting around???

I didn't know that was a thing.

No, I have a ~300 gallon and a ~200 gallon fuel tank. Just checked today and I've got about 200 gallons left. Trying to figure out what to put it into so I can order 500 gallons. Most of the farm equipment has been sitting too long and probably needs attention before dumping fuel into it.

Xist 03-22-2020 03:12 AM

1 Attachment(s)
We used 500-gallon fuel blivets in the Army:
https://ecomodder.com/forum/attachme...1&d=1584857452
Just $1,000! :) https://www.arcticwirerope.com/awr-p...el-blivetdrum/

That is perfect if you expect gas prices to increase more than $2 a gallon!

oil pan 4 03-22-2020 12:08 PM

I got my 500 gallon propane tanks ftom the tractor auction for $100 to $150.
The first one I got had a bad valve tree, a new one was around $200. So I got another tank with a good valve for less than the cost of a new valve and it still has propane in it.

redpoint5 03-23-2020 02:01 AM

Like this, but 2 differently sized containers and a more improvised setup.

https://img.agriexpo.online/images_a...5-12535733.jpg

Set this up back when I had a source for $1/gallon fuel.

JSH 03-23-2020 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redpoint5 (Post 619293)
Not the same effect. I don't like investing in commodities for the same reason that I don't like investing in the stock market; it's a zero sum game. For me to profit, it had to come at the expense of someone else.

My preferred investment would probably be real estate.

Real Estate is also a zero sum game unless you are building a new building.

oil pan 4 03-23-2020 12:36 PM

I am rent out a $30,000 house for $650 a month. Been renting it out for almost 3 years.
How is that a 0 sum game?
For me it isnt.

If I had a 130,000 house I could rent it out for maybe $800.
Slum load is where it's at.

redpoint5 03-23-2020 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSH (Post 619627)
Real Estate is also a zero sum game unless you are building a new building.

Yes, I suppose I was thinking that but didn't make that explicit. Property development is a developing interest of mine.


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