I saw an article that said a survey shows 17% of new vehicle owners under the clunkers program are already having doubts and second thoughts about the wisdom of taking on new car payments.
For the sake of arguement, I'm going to assume 17% of program participants weren't really thinking of getting a new car but did because of the program. Then, 83% of the program sales were going to happen in the near term regardless- people that would have bought earlier but caught wind of the program and waited, and those who would have bought later but did it before program deadline instead.
If my assumption isn't total garbage, that means the $3,000,000,000 program spurred 117,000 "new" sales, at about $26,000/sale. :/