I don't think the extra 50 miles of flatter ground will make up for the difference of going up the hills.. I think it's going to be a close cut either way, and potential hazards should account for 60+% of the decision.
I'd say just take the shorter route, where you're more protected from the weather. Many of those mountains (foot hills) also have rest stop areas on them, do they not? Might be something to look into, in case you get into some inclement weather and need to stop somewhere safe.
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