[bestclimb]

Originally Posted by SentraSE-R

I like your attempt to quantify the risk, but some of your assumptions are incorrect. The risk of food poisoning is much higher than you think. This Wiki article puts it at 30% of the population each year, even in industrialized countries. 76 million cases in the USA every year, resulting in 325,000 hospitalizations and 5000 deaths. 2.1 million deaths worldwide in 2000. Those are frighteningly high figures. Peter and Christ and Frank are either incredibly lucky, remarkably careful, remarkably tough, or are under-reporting their illnesses - likely attributing food poisoning to "flu" or indigestion.

I didn't link most food poisoning to commercially packaged food, because most of it comes from mishandling food in the home.

I was attempting to quantify the risk of contaminated food coming right out of the packaging. My guess is that you are right in not linking it to packaged food, and attributing it to miss handling in the home or restaurant. In which case "expired" food would still be safe (i'm thinking days or a few weeks past due not a couple years).