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Be Patient Chaz.
I'd hate to see you take your LipStick off too soon. I have run an aerocap for almost three years now. My fuel efficiency numbers always tank in cold temperatures. The air is just denser and any aero modification is not as effective. Terrain and, as you note, wind speed and direction effect fuel efficieny too.
So don't give up on you aerocap yet, which you have done a very fine job of constructing. Let the air temps warm up this spring and summer and then start seeing those 20 mpg+ runs. In a years average, you should see around a 15% increase in your fuel efficiency. Just be patient.
Bondo
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