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I see two different types of efficiency being discussed here, fuel efficiency and transmission efficiency.
Transmission efficiency is just how much of the power going into the tranny makes it out the other side. I don't think anyone would argue that, up until recently, the manual was the king of efficiency. Even when cruising, autos need to pump fluid, while manuals are just turning gears. With dual clutch transmissions such as the Fiesta's, the efficiency is probably almost identical to manuals.
Fuel efficiency is distance traveled for a certain amount of energy. The EPA tests this in a laboratory and does what the "average" driver would do. It is probably much easier to tune automatics to perform well on the test, especially with more and higher gear ratios. But in the real world, fuel efficiency is mainly up to the driver (besides the number and ratio of the gears, which are pretty much whatever the manufacturer provides). It is all up to the driver in a manual , but in an auto, it is up to the driver and the transmission controller. A driver can see that the crest of a hill is just a few seconds away, and keep a manual in a higher gear, but an auto just sees that there is more load and can downshift instead of waiting a few seconds. Thus, the manual car can be more fuel efficient.
I think it is great that automatics are getting more efficient. More people drive them so it'll make a big difference. But until the car can drive itself and see the whole picture, I prefer to be in control of which gear it is in. I will only buy manuals and maybe automatics with a manual mode.
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