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Originally Posted by RobertSmalls
I look forward to the day when trains, trucks, and airplanes run on renewable, low-carbon electricity (which we don't have), but we're not there yet.
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I think this is the key. -
Net energy gain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
We have electrified mainline railways in the UK for most main lines (I think) as well as Eurostar and the new high speed link proposed to come all the way up to Scotland. The problem is generating the power to run them. At the moment we are projected to be either just about OK for power in 10 years or (more likely IMHO) looking at a shortfall.
Additionally if you are going to carry out the comparison between liquid fuels and EV then you also have to factor in the cost of the infrastructure and the power / resources needed to make the batteries, motors, controller electronic components (electronic manufacture uses a lot of nasty chemicals) and thats on top of the normal car resources excluding ICE components. You could argue that infrastructure is there already powering our homes but this is a new level of demand our current system doesn't cope with. We (consumers) have demanded energy use far beyond what our parents had or even we had a few years ago. Another one to add to the list.
But the key one to most people is not the extreme of efficiency its acceptible efficiency vs convenience. A car with an ICE and liquid fuel has an unlimited range as long as there are fuel stations with fuel in them - debatable how sustainable that is - but at the moment its where we are. People are still not sure about EVs with quoted ranges of up to 150 miles, perhaps 200, maybe 250 and then a long-ish recharge time. The disapointment of that remote control toy car at Christmas gradually being unable to crawl across the carpet and having to wait for an hour to play again play on people's minds. They (EVs) are getting better and I hope will continue but at the moment ICE and liquid fuels work.
Having said that the Apteras of this world may as well forget it for me. Impractical as my only car and I prefer my cars to have a full complement of wheels. If GM can make an Impact work a decade ago why not improve on it now.
One of the reasons I believe Hybrids are a milemarker on the road to whatever we may use 50 years from now (if we can use anything at all) rather than the ultimate solution is because Hybrids were supposed to give us the best of both worlds - that the infinite range of being able to refuel instantly only better with extended range because of stored and regenerated power. In the real world with people who don't drive EM stylee they get disapointing mileages. The number of road tests of the Prius in the UK failing to match the claimed MPG forced Toyota to issue statements about it.
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Originally Posted by RobertSmalls
This reminds me of a fun fact: the green energy infrastructure of tomorrow will be built on the brown energy of today. How much would it cost to build a wind farm, hauling 150' blades and 60-ton nacelles, using battery-electric trucks? And what if the electricity to charge those trucks came from coal extracted using battery-electric mining equipment and delivered by electrified heavy rail?
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I honestly believe we are about 20-25 years too late to be able to do this on a scale large enough to make a difference. The cost comparison between green energy (whatever that is meant to mean) vs fossil fuels is too much in the fossil fuel favour to make those projects pay. And when the balance goes the other way we probably won't be able to put in the investment required in terms of brown energy anyway.
Add in the fact that 2bn Chinese also want cars, houses, air con, video games and so on, and they have an unelected government which is not too bothered about how they get those things as long as they keep the population happy to stay in power, and we have serious problems ahead.
I think the business-buzzword-bingo of "doing more with less" is more likely to change to "doing less with much less" in the future. For those who believe their way of life is non-negotiable I quote Richard Heinberg - "Nature doesn't negotiate".