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Excel and Matlab are fun and if I didn't just spend all day in excel sheets I'd join in the fun.
Let's go back to the original question - "What will my fuel economy improve if I remove xxx weight?"
I would answer this way: Get enough milk jugs/soda bottles to equal the weight you are trying to remove. Removing 30 lbs -- get enough milk jugs to add 30 lbs. Over a week or two do your commute with and without the 30 extra lbs. Keep careful records, recording weather differences and unusual traffic differences. Now that you have many days of data average the days with and the days without the extra weight. Remove the unusual traffic days, remove commutes where engine was already up to temp because you ran an errand, remove days where you stopped at the store, etc. You want to be comparing average commute days with and without the extra weight.
Did you see a change? If so then you're most likely going to see a change if you remove the weight.
Only something above will account for that specific car and that specific commute and that specific driving habit.
P.S. It would be better if you could do a double blind study. Have your wife/significant other put the weight in the back seat with a towel over it. Then you don't know if you have a bunch of full milk jugs or empty ones and you won't subtly change your driving habits to get the answer you want.
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