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I did my one hour commute at 22F and though I was tough, repairing wife's car so she took mine. And that was before making an electric vest or adding grip heaters.
I wouldn't worry about a 10 or 20 mpg difference, with your short ride even if gas goes to $5 agallon, it would be one gallon per day at 50 mpg, 2/3 of gallon at 75 mpg.
I always recommend dualsport for a first bike, you can gain a lot of experience in the dirt that will carry over without cars around. My first bike after 15 years without was a KLR650 $4900 brand new in 2000. I'd recommend a little smaller for a new rider, the DR200, KLR250, xt225's, CRF230l are all great bikes to start with and will do your commute just fine. DRz400s is lighter & narrower than the 650's (650's have big wide seats) KLR650 is most highway friendly, XR650L most dirt friendly and DR650se is in between with lowest seat height I believe). DR650se is probably best buy as it doesn't have the following of the other 2 keeping used prices up higher.
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