You're averaging out most of the variables, and doing a good job, from your description. But we're trying to measure a 2-3% change, and all it takes to toss that away is a couple of stabs on the brakes when someone merges in front of you, or one stomp on the gas pedal to pass someone going slower, on your daily commute.
I used to be a backup driver in a vanpool, doing the same route every day. Most days, our afternoon drive was an hour and ten minutes, but one accident, or one slow driver on the hills and curves, could turn any day's commute into a 2 hour drive, and one day/year on average, the sea would part, and we'd find ourselves home in 45 minutes. Tank to tank variability was well over 5%, regularly.
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Darrell
Boycotting Exxon since 1989, BP since 2010
Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac? George Carlin
Mean Green Toaster Machine
49.5 mpg avg over 53,000 miles. 176% of '08 EPA
Best flat drive 94.5 mpg for 10.1 mi
Longest tank 1033 km (642 mi) on 10.56 gal = 60.8 mpg
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