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suspectnumber961 · 01-16-2012, 08:25 AM

Peak Oil's Affect on Gasoline Prices in 2012 at Oil Price

Kloza notes that for the last decade gasoline futures prices, which ultimately determine pump prices, have risen from an autumn low to a spring high by an average of 83 percent. During these years, the annual winter-spring price surge has varied anywhere from 52 to 169 percent making higher prices by summer a fairly sure bet. This year the 2011 low for gasoline on the NY futures market likely will turn out to have been $2.44 a gallon on November 25. If one does the arithmetic using the average price jump of 83 percent, futures prices could be expected to top out in the vicinity of $4.46 a gallon next spring. Adding in the additional 60 cents to get the gasoline taxed and to the nozzle of your pump, we could theoretically be paying a national average on the order of $5.00 a gallon before the 4th of July. This of course assumes that nothing bad happens in the Middle East that restricts or seriously threatens the flow of oil exports and sends prices much higher.

The $5 scenario is too much for Kloza so he settles for a fall-to-spring increase of only 40-45 percent this year which has pump prices topping out between $3.90 and $4.25 a gallon. An increase of only 40-45 percent, of course, would be the smallest winter-spring price rally in this century, but $4 a gallon is something the average American has seen before and can comprehend - forecasting $5 gasoline for six months from now is simply not acceptable considering the economic and political havoc it would be likely to cause.

If the price spike of 2008 obtains, $4+ gasoline is the breaking point for many Americans. Driving will drop, new car sales will plummet, trucks and airplanes will be parked, and with them a big piece of the American economy will grind to a halt. Four years ago, the drop in gasoline consumption was so sharp that it sent prices down $2.40 cents a gallon to an end of the year low of $1.65 thereby freeing up billions of dollars that were going into gas tanks in July and saving the economy from much more serious trouble.

01-16-2012, 08:25 AM	#1 (permalink)
suspectnumber961 EcoModding Alien Observer Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: I flitter here and there Posts: 547 highcountryexplorer - '86 Nissan 720 KC 4x4 ST with fiberglass cap 90 day: 21.78 mpg (US) Elroy - '03 Ford Focus ZX3 w/Zetec DOHC engine 90 day: 32.89 mpg (US) Thanks: 6 Thanked 78 Times in 65 Posts	Gas prices in 2012? At least $4? Peak Oil's Affect on Gasoline Prices in 2012 at Oil Price Kloza notes that for the last decade gasoline futures prices, which ultimately determine pump prices, have risen from an autumn low to a spring high by an average of 83 percent. During these years, the annual winter-spring price surge has varied anywhere from 52 to 169 percent making higher prices by summer a fairly sure bet. This year the 2011 low for gasoline on the NY futures market likely will turn out to have been $2.44 a gallon on November 25. If one does the arithmetic using the average price jump of 83 percent, futures prices could be expected to top out in the vicinity of $4.46 a gallon next spring. Adding in the additional 60 cents to get the gasoline taxed and to the nozzle of your pump, we could theoretically be paying a national average on the order of $5.00 a gallon before the 4th of July. This of course assumes that nothing bad happens in the Middle East that restricts or seriously threatens the flow of oil exports and sends prices much higher. The $5 scenario is too much for Kloza so he settles for a fall-to-spring increase of only 40-45 percent this year which *has pump prices topping out between $3.90 and $4.25 a gallon.* An increase of only 40-45 percent, of course, would be the smallest winter-spring price rally in this century, but $4 a gallon is something the average American has seen before and can comprehend - forecasting $5 gasoline for six months from now is simply not acceptable considering the economic and political havoc it would be likely to cause. If the price spike of 2008 obtains, $4+ gasoline is the breaking point for many Americans. Driving will drop, new car sales will plummet, trucks and airplanes will be parked, and with them a big piece of the American economy will grind to a halt. Four years ago, the drop in gasoline consumption was so sharp that it sent prices down $2.40 cents a gallon to an end of the year low of $1.65 thereby freeing up billions of dollars that were going into gas tanks in July and saving the economy from much more serious trouble. __________________ *Carry on humans...we are extremely proud of you.* .................. Forty-six percent of Americans believe in the creationist view that God created humans in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years. GALLUP POLL