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Old 02-11-2012, 04:55 PM   #52 (permalink)
Arragonis
The PRC.
 
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Well this is a cheerful read and no mistake Either we are all going to burn the world up or run out of oil first - or maybe its both I kind of lose track.

I read a lot about Peak Everything a few years ago and became convinced we are doomed, but then I woke up and realised that the end of civilisation due to resources running out and over population has been a running theme for over 200 years.

I used to fret about CAGW too but then wondered how the vikings managed to bury their dead in what is now permafrost in Greenland or why the Thames used to freeze over and why we didn't seem to have winters like those scenes in the 18th century paintings used for Christmas cards all the time.

And I remember all those predictions of a coming ice age in the 1970s, although everyone now denies that was ever the case. Oh and we were supposed to have used all the oil by now too again according to predictions made at the time.

The problem is that these predictions are based on models, and most models are too simplistic to take into account the real world. Take "The limits to Growth" - a typically doom laden prediction of resource depletion and over-population. How did it work out ? Bollocks - because it was a model, a fixed model - it didn't take into account technology and efficiency even though the existence of the computers used to run it at the time should have been a clue.

The same is true of the models which predict CAGW - fortunately the world has not followed those models at all, in fact it is almost being deliberately cheeky in how much it is going against them.

Now does this mean I don't care about the environment or our use of resources - no. I care about those quite a lot - I have a child so I have an investment in the future. I feel we could get a lot further in helping the less fortunate in this world and indeed our own future generations by investing more in technology and research on how to use those resources, including recycling, far more efficiently - the same kind of research which means we can feed everyone around today*

So if you do feel the need to buy ammo and run for the hills then get on with it and get out of the way of the rest of us. Please send us a postcard to let us know how you get on and whether the polar / grizzly bears welcome you with open paws - I'm sure it will still arrive just fine.

*(it is criminal that some people in this world go to sleep hungry or don't have clean drinking water - the fact we spend £/$bns on more or less useless windmills - and insist they do the same - instead of solving that problem is a crime against humanity IMO, not something people should be getting nobel prizes for).
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