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More efficient use of the energy we have available.
The cost of oil will drive the efforts to find alternatives.
We have had a long period of history where we did not rely on oil, and some of those methods should be reevaluated.
The emerging countries have the example of the US and to a certain percentage Europe and the rest of the developed world as an example of how not to more to economic prosperity.
There are plenty of examples of this already, with China's electrified vehicle population.
The oil producing countries also will try to extend the profits over a longer period of time so they can transition to other means of power generation while accumulating enough wealth to finance their future prosperity.
Democracies may have to transition to a more long term type of government that has the stability to look at solutions that are not dependent on the results of the next election. We in the US have already transitioned to the perpetual campaign, with promises that have no relevance, and spending with no constraints. We will soon run out of the total wealth necessary to continue this situation, if we haven't already.
The energy is available today, the willpower and intelligence to store that energy is the real short term problem, while lower per capita consumption, with significantly more gain from the same amount of energy is the two pronged goal.
A real look back into the ways that people dealt with energy conversion storage and utilization in the past would also help us to understand the correct pathway to progress.
While I agree with the fact that population growth is unsustainable, I believe the future is bright, as long as we understand the solutions are there and the technology is there. We must learn to properly balance the effects of our storage methods and the fact that there will be environmental costs and consequences of our efforts.
Between the nuclear energy, solar, evaporation, tidal, and ocean currents, we can transition away from oil, but oil will be a factor probably for at least another century, possibly two. By then we can grow the replacements for fossil fuels, but I think individual transportation will have to transform dramatically. I also believe it will be done cost effectively at a balance point when oil reaches a price threshold where alternatives can replace fossil fuels, and I think it can happen within my lifetime, by the year 2050 if I was to live to 100 years, as one of my aunts has lived to that age.
I remember a grave marker in an old run down cemetery near a municipal golf course in Hampton Virginia.
Rachael Johnson
Born
April 11, 1811
Died
April 12, 1911
I ponder the times of Rachael's life and the technological revolution she witnessed in her life of 100 years and 1 day.
I wonder what life will be like on November 23, 2050, when I reach the same age. As a youth, I seriously thought the Earth would never see that day. Mankind seemed to be determined to self exterminate in a nuclear holocaust. I don't feel that such a possibility is as near today as I did then, 40 years ago, but I guess it could still happen.
I am fairly optimistic about the future, once mankind wakes up enough to actually approach the energy situation with a less dogmatic and more rational approach. of course we could continue to ignore potential solutions while we chase the next "breakthrough" when we already have the tools to solve the problem, and to do so at a reasonable cost today, while the same technology Rachael witnessed in her century offers us better solutions not even conceived today.
regards
Mech
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