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You should keep in mind that the supply of oil depends on the price, which in turn depends on the cost of getting it out of the ground and to the refinery. There's oil in the ground that might cost $50/bbl to get, there's more that costs $75, $100, $150... If the price of gas isn't high enough to cover the cost of getting the oil out, it'll stay in the ground.
So what happens (added to all the other factors like Middle East problems, increasing demand from developing economies, etc.) is that the price of oil goes up, the costly wells start pumping, that increases supply, the price goes down, the wells stop pumping... and repeat, with the price rachetting a bit higher each time.
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