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Old 03-05-2012, 05:00 PM   #8 (permalink)
Ken Fry
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroMPG View Post
On the other hand, I also wonder how many years GM & Nissan will be willing to keep working on an idea that clearly isn't paying off very quickly, the way Toyota did with the 1st generation Prius.
Yes, that will be interesting to see. I've consulted for American manufacturers and Japanese, and admire the Japanese for their long range thinking.

I would have liked to see the Volt come out at $30,000 instead of $40,000. Given what it costs me to buy batteries in low volume, I am fairly certain that the Volt could be priced at $30,000 and be profitible in 3 years. The new Nissan pricing, at about 39k for the Leaf, seems way the heck too high. It is a really simple car: a $16,000 Juke, minus $8000 of engine, trans, exhaust system fuel system,etc, plus $4000 motor and controls, and $9600 in batteries: $20,600.

The party line at the EV sites has been, for the most part, that supply cannot keep up with demand. I have not believed that, but for many people, this will be a sad wake up call. I find it discouraging -- I'd like to see the Volt do well.

But in any case, the existing sales have been impressive (tens of thousands of EVs in about a year) if not taken in the context of traditional car sales levels. The manufacturers have to figure out how to do that profitably.

One can see how conspiracy theories start: "See, it's Who Killed the Electric Car all over again. GM never wanted to make a go of it."
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