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Design and use of any product hinges on consumer 'value management' decisions. Convenience, average annual cost of ownership, and self image have long been key issues in selecting a vehicle. Fuel costs and distance traveled have lead to domestic cars becoming smaller again and foreign makes marketed here becoming larger. National defense and transportation policies come into the market place. Airports and interstate highways were favored over railways after WWII. Cars also meant jobs and promised a higher standard of living. Buses and trolley services were reduced. The overall transit mix is shifting. Urban and rural transportation needs are diverging. Telecommunications and the need for exercise will influence the mix. The mode of transportation selected will depend on cost vs travel time. We will continue to analyse our choices and lobby for changes we deem appropriate for our conditions. For me that means better bus schedules, legal use of bicycle motors up to 30 mph, and more accomodation for bicycles on buses or trains. My targets are having a streamlined upright bike for every member of my family and a small station wagon or van capable of 65 mpg highway within 3-5 years.
We can expect more restrictions to private car ownership in the major cities and more diesel electric vehicles everywhere else. More smaller cities are opting for natural gas powered bus fleets that have smaller streamlined vehicles and more flexible schedules. Buses and trains will likely have racks for bicycles on board. Air travel and car rental have successfully partnered. We will see more Third World solutions being adapted here. The 125cc motorcycle, three wheel taxi, minivan taxi, buses, and passenger trains are being tried.
Whatever 'the car of the future' looks like it will reflect our geography, our self image, and our economic priorities. Compare a 1961 Chevrolet Impala to a 2011 model. The basic configuration of wheelbase and engine size may be similar but the efficiency, comfort, and safety are amazingly different.
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