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minispeed · 06-17-2012, 07:29 PM

You have to consider the cost associated with certifying the engine and the expected return that the automakers get. The government will not simply accept the testing for other countries at face value. Canada and the US are just starting to talk about standardized testing and certification to save companies money after being the largest trading partners for years.

In the case of BMW they brought over an inline 6, that did nearly nothing for the 3 that they put it in but they wanted to certify one engine and sell it in as many cars as possible. That engine was overkill for the 3 but it could move the X5 as it did and they would always have the option to move the 1, X3, 5, 6, 7 and even Z4 if they wanted. If they certified the approx. 72mpg imp 2.0L for the 1, 3 and X1 (maybe X3 too) then they would have spent either double to start the line up with 2 diesels or spent the same and start the line up with 1 diesel. If VW offers another TDI who are they giong to take market share from? No car convinces people who don't want a car to suddenly buy one. It's all about stealing market share. If they give you a better TDI product then they just shift their share of the market. In the case of VW they have a 1.4 or 1.6L option then the public will walk into dealers expecting it to be probably $2000 cheaper than the 2.0 just because that's the way it's always been with gas engines. In ON the TDI passat is only a $2600 premium. Where do you slot in a 1.6L to make money? Ford is the first showing the balls to charge a premium for downsized turbo technically advance engines and they have spent tons in marketing "ecoboost" to convince the public they are getting more for their money. Mazda has a lot to gain from bringing the diesel, they have a very small market share, there is a very large potentail for a good return on investment so I would say it's almost a sure thing that the 3, 6 and cx5 will go diesel.

Another thing to consider is the refining industry. In North America it is set up around gas. If you cause a swing in the market enough to start to affect supply and demand the Government will have to react and create taxes to ensure that the current production can support demand. If you create enough demand to cause the oil companies to have to build new refineries to meet the need then that cost will have to be passed on to the consumer at the pumps. It's not a conspiracy. If the government said we are going to force all car companies to only sell fuel efficient diesel engines the oil companies would respond by saying alright, this is the cost to get imported fully refined diesel vs importing bulk oil and over the next few years we will build more plants and roll that cost recovery into the cost at the pump. We will also have to pay huge fees to ensure that all our surplus gas refineries are properly shut down and not simply abandoned and to ensure that we do that we will have to charge more at the pump.

Out of curiosity I would love to compare the cost per mile to the consumer of driving that 1.6l tdi on London pump prices vs the cost per mile to drive a Prius (or 1.6 ecoboost fusion when it's out) on NYC pump prices.

The bottom line is it all comes down to energy per barrel of oil, the cost to refine/store/ship that, and then the cars ability to convert that energy to forward momentum. Although you will see more of that as the end user with a diesel the oil companies will need to invest a lot to allow everyone in North America to drive a diesel. They get fewer diesel from each barrel they buy than if they had chosen to turn it into gas. It's very complex; I probably got most of it close at best. But the bottom line is it is not as simple as pump, pay, drive, pump calculate MPG. If you ask for any major change to the system you will have to pay for it.

On the other hand, aerodynamics, light weight, multi speed transmissions and direct injection, hybrids (I know people are going to argue that one) are all upfront costs you pay for in the new vehicle. You will never have to come back and suddenly fork over more money at the pump because you bought a car with one of those changes. And all the manufactures are starting to give it to us. Take a look at the new Nissan Versa rear bumper. It was once (and still may be) the cheapest car sold in America. It shows that it spent some time in the wind tunnel with the hard edges at the side. The volt, 3rd gen prius, and new impreza (35mpg with full time AWD) all show this same trend.

06-17-2012, 07:29 PM	#37 (permalink)
minispeed EcoModding Apprentice Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Burlington, ON Posts: 158 minispeed-Insight - '00 Honda Insight 90 day: 82.15 mpg (US) MDX - '01 Acura MDX Touring 90 day: 22.29 mpg (US) the wife's car - '13 Toyota Prius Plus 90 day: 45.99 mpg (US) leaf-one - '15 Nissan Leaf SV Thanks: 4 Thanked 36 Times in 26 Posts	You have to consider the cost associated with certifying the engine and the expected return that the automakers get. The government will not simply accept the testing for other countries at face value. Canada and the US are just starting to talk about standardized testing and certification to save companies money after being the largest trading partners for years. In the case of BMW they brought over an inline 6, that did nearly nothing for the 3 that they put it in but they wanted to certify one engine and sell it in as many cars as possible. That engine was overkill for the 3 but it could move the X5 as it did and they would always have the option to move the 1, X3, 5, 6, 7 and even Z4 if they wanted. If they certified the approx. 72mpg imp 2.0L for the 1, 3 and X1 (maybe X3 too) then they would have spent either double to start the line up with 2 diesels or spent the same and start the line up with 1 diesel. If VW offers another TDI who are they giong to take market share from? No car convinces people who don't want a car to suddenly buy one. It's all about stealing market share. If they give you a better TDI product then they just shift their share of the market. In the case of VW they have a 1.4 or 1.6L option then the public will walk into dealers expecting it to be probably $2000 cheaper than the 2.0 just because that's the way it's always been with gas engines. In ON the TDI passat is only a $2600 premium. Where do you slot in a 1.6L to make money? Ford is the first showing the balls to charge a premium for downsized turbo technically advance engines and they have spent tons in marketing "ecoboost" to convince the public they are getting more for their money. Mazda has a lot to gain from bringing the diesel, they have a very small market share, there is a very large potentail for a good return on investment so I would say it's almost a sure thing that the 3, 6 and cx5 will go diesel. Another thing to consider is the refining industry. In North America it is set up around gas. If you cause a swing in the market enough to start to affect supply and demand the Government will have to react and create taxes to ensure that the current production can support demand. If you create enough demand to cause the oil companies to have to build new refineries to meet the need then that cost will have to be passed on to the consumer at the pumps. It's not a conspiracy. If the government said we are going to force all car companies to only sell fuel efficient diesel engines the oil companies would respond by saying alright, this is the cost to get imported fully refined diesel vs importing bulk oil and over the next few years we will build more plants and roll that cost recovery into the cost at the pump. We will also have to pay huge fees to ensure that all our surplus gas refineries are properly shut down and not simply abandoned and to ensure that we do that we will have to charge more at the pump. Out of curiosity I would love to compare the cost per mile to the consumer of driving that 1.6l tdi on London pump prices vs the cost per mile to drive a Prius (or 1.6 ecoboost fusion when it's out) on NYC pump prices. The bottom line is it all comes down to energy per barrel of oil, the cost to refine/store/ship that, and then the cars ability to convert that energy to forward momentum. Although you will see more of that as the end user with a diesel the oil companies will need to invest a lot to allow everyone in North America to drive a diesel. They get fewer diesel from each barrel they buy than if they had chosen to turn it into gas. It's very complex; I probably got most of it close at best. But the bottom line is it is not as simple as pump, pay, drive, pump calculate MPG. If you ask for any major change to the system you will have to pay for it. On the other hand, aerodynamics, light weight, multi speed transmissions and direct injection, hybrids (I know people are going to argue that one) are all upfront costs you pay for in the new vehicle. You will never have to come back and suddenly fork over more money at the pump because you bought a car with one of those changes. And all the manufactures are starting to give it to us. Take a look at the new Nissan Versa rear bumper. It was once (and still may be) the cheapest car sold in America. It shows that it spent some time in the wind tunnel with the hard edges at the side. The volt, 3rd gen prius, and new impreza (35mpg with full time AWD) all show this same trend. __________________ Last edited by minispeed; 06-17-2012 at 07:42 PM..