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Great discussion here. I really hate to be a rain on your parade but the model of Oil use is not a static model. Oil consumption is a dynamic force ever changing.
The main driving force behind oil consumption is population growth, and ability of that population to use cheap oil.
Peak Oil is nothing compared to peak "Phosphorus", which is already on the decline. Without cheap phosphorus we can not grow the crops needed for 7-10 billion people. This means that starting in 20 years, the world population will drop off significantly to about 1/3 of todays population. This will solve the peak oil problem.
So there you have it, peak oil problem solved in a dynamic model!
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