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We have to look at the peaks of each set of reserves separately. We are undobutedly past the production peak of Saudi Oil. Iraqi Oil, maybe not yet, due to the disruptions. We are nowhere near peak Tar Sands, but due to the lack of pipeline and weak pricing due to low demand, the cost of extracting is prohibitive. While the current high prices are due mostly to speculation (bullish investment) and political maneuvering by some OPEC members, tar sands become uneconomical for development below $80 per barrel (some say 85) and current traditional crude at below $100 or so.
Still, at current demand, we can use up all economically extractable oil within the next fifty to one hundred years... And we can expect future price shocks long before that. Maybe even by the end of this year.
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