View Single Post
Old 11-29-2012, 02:49 PM   #170 (permalink)
TheEnemy
The road not so traveled
 
TheEnemy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: New Mexico
Posts: 680

The Truck - '99 Nissan Frontier xe
90 day: 25.74 mpg (US)

The Ugly Duck - '84 Jeep CJ7 Rock crawler
Thanks: 18
Thanked 66 Times in 57 Posts
Since the majority of the difference is where CO2 is only partly emissive (approx eyeball 50%), I am reducing the multiplier by half. 0.9w/m^2, add the solar forcing gives about 1.1w/m^2

dt = ldf

dt = 0.8 *1.1 = 0.88C

Compairing that to last years yearly observed anomaly of 0.51 (11th warmest) tells me that the climate sensitivity variable is too high I'll err high and set it to 0.6.

So now using all of these tweaked values and figuring we might hit 600ppm CO2 before leveling off.

CO2 -> 2.45 * ln(600/270) = 1.86w/m^2

assuming the sun stays pretty close = 2.06w/m^2

dt = 0.6 * 2.06 = 1.24C Thats assuming all of my math is at least close to realistic.

If anyone sees a problem let me know.