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Old 12-03-2012, 03:07 PM   #187 (permalink)
NeilBlanchard
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The study of the melting tundra I posted earlier indicates that this will contribute a HUGE amount of GCG - it will add ~39% to the total as we go, over the next several decades. Lots of methane and lots of carbon dioxide are already coming out of the decomposing organic material that used to be frozen. If there is no oxygen present when it breaks done, then we get methane, and if there is oxygen present we get carbon dioxide. The methane is at least 7X more insulating than carbon dioxide; though after a relatively short time (about 7 years?) the methane becomes carbon dioxide - which basically lasts "forever". The only way it is naturally sequestered (weathering?) it takes millions of years to go away.

On ocean level rise - most of it so far has come from the water being warmer i.e. less dense which means it expands. A small amount of the rise so far does come from land ice melting i.e. glaciers and now that Greenland has started to melt faster and faster, we will be seeing accelerated rate of ocean level rise.

In the past 100 years, we have had a bit less than 1 foot of rise - but in the next 100 years we will see at least 2 more feet and maybe 3 or 5 feet. When Greenland completely melts - which it seems inevitable that it will - that will raise the level by about 20 feet. And another complication is that the gravitational pull of the ice itself will disperse, so the ocean level will shift around and the increase will not be "even".

So if Sandy does all the destruction that it did with "just" 1 foot of rise, can you image what it would do with another 2 feet? What about more? Can you imagine what will happen when all the people who live on broad coastal plains get pushed back by a mile - or what about 10 miles?

If you you are not already worried, then you need to learn more.
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Last edited by NeilBlanchard; 12-03-2012 at 03:20 PM..