Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard
I have no blessed idea - the sooner the better - or the sooner the less terrible for us and the rest of life on the planet.
There is a lot of "momentum" in this; through feedback/amplifying effects, etc. If we completely stop all carbon output right now, we'd get another 0.5-1C rise (on top of the ~0.8C we have already had).
We probably have 5-8 years to turn things around - 10 years on the outside, if we want to avoid 3-4C rise; let alone 2-3C. If we go another 20-30 years without major carbon cuts, then we'll likely see 4-5C. If we hit ~6C then we get hydrogen sulphide; a deadly poisonous gas, coming out of the ocean. Go here to read about what sorts of things happen at increasing temperatures.
If we speed past 450ppm, then all bets are off. |
First off, we are most likely going to exceed 450, at our current rate of increase we have 25-30 years before we hit that point.
Second where are you getting that we have increase temperatures by 0.8C?
Third, the whole globe will not warm the same ammount. Like I said before, the colder regions will see the most warming so placing that 6C average warming to the hotter regions and then showing what bad things will happen at that temperature isn't accurate.
Arragonis: I am humoring James who thinks that the sun has had no effect on current global warming. Of course by picking my start and end points I can choose whatever warming ammount I want for projections, though I think the 1958-2005 values should give a somewhat accurate corrections to be able to predict off of.