U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030 - Bloomberg
New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the
next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S. intelligence community.
The 140-page report released today by the National Intelligence Council lays out dangers and opportunities for nations, economies, investors, political systems and leaders due to four “megatrends” that government intelligence analysts say are transforming the world.
Those major trends are the
end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states*, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages, according to the analysts.
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While technological advances, migrations, wars and other factors drove change in earlier periods, what sets the next quarter century apart is the way
seven “tectonic shifts” are combining to drive change at an accelerating rate, said NIC Counselor Mathew Burrows, the report’s principle author. Those factors are:
the growth of the middle class, wider access to new technologies, shifting economic power, aging populations, urbanization, growing demand for food and water, and U.S. energy independence
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Population Growth
The key question, the report says, is whether divergent growth rates and increased volatility “will result in a global economic breakdown or whether the development of multiple growth centers will lead to resiliency.”
A world population that’s projected to rise to 8.3 billion from 7.1 billion today by 2030 will add to the strains, the report says. More people will join the middle class, especially in the developing world, and even conservative estimates forecast the global middle class doubling to more than 2 billion in 18 years.
The education sector will both drive and benefit from this growth in the middle class, the report projects, and economic success will be closely tied to educational levels. In the Middle East and North Africa, average levels of schooling are expected to rise from 7.1 years to 8.7 years. Education for women -- a driver of both economic growth and social health and welfare -- will rise from 5 years to 7 years in the region, according to the report.
Cities Grow
Much of this growing middle class will flock to cities, increasing the world’s urban population from roughly 50 percent of the world’s total to nearly 60 percent by 2030. Rising incomes will fuel their appetite for food -- especially protein from meat and fish -- water and energy, which will be in shorter supply, the report says, in part because climate change and water shortages will alter patterns of arable land and greater demand for energy could curb the amount of fuel available to make fertilizers and other products.
Demand for food will rise 35 percent by 2030 as global gains in agricultural productivity decline, the report says. Worldwide water requirements will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters in 2030, 40 percent more than current sustainable water supplies, making water a likely cause of regional conflicts, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East, the report says.
Climate Change
Climate change will complicate resource management, particularly in Asia, where monsoons are crucial to the growing season and decreased rainfall could disrupt the region’s ability to feed its growing population.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are happening faster than expected, Burrows said. When his researchers updated their section on climate change, the new figures showed the rate of change was even greater than it was 18 months before, when they started the project.
New communications technologies and expanding educational opportunities, meanwhile, will empower the growing middle classes to make greater demands on their governments for services, a scenario that’s already part of the Arab Spring movements in countries such as Egypt.
“You have a huge problem on the resource side,” Burrows said. “How do you manage all this prosperity that is putting a lot of strain on the resources?”
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* except in the US...a leader in surveillance and repressive tactics?