Net Energy, the Key to Energy Investing
Long Term:
Net Energy is the best long-term guide for energy investing. Unfortunately, few energy companies publish the Net Energy of their reserves. Investors should demand such disclosure and the rate at which those resources are depleting.
Fracked oil exemplifies risk of Net Energy and depletion. Net Energy is estimated at about 3:1; off the Energy Cliff. A typical well looks OK as it produces about 86,000 barrels the first year. But then it depletes by about 46% the second year.
Solar and Wind have excellent Net Energies, over 20:1. Unfortunately, no solar company I know of has found their Crossing the Chasm market niche. As railroads were the catalyst for the shift in energy systems from biofuels (hay and wood) to fossil fuels between 1860-1880, I believe transportation will be the catalyst for shifting from fossil to solar.
My investment is in Personal Rapid Transit (PRT);
computer networks integrated with ultra-light urban railroads to move people, cargo and trash using 1/10th the energy of highways. Solar/wind collection integrated into the rail infrastructure gather 5,000 to 30,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per day. PRT networks can afford the high cost of solar/wind because mobility efficiencies approach the 480 ton-miles per gallon of freight railroad. Integrating solar/wind makes transportation durable against blackouts from grid failures.