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Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard
That no warming since ... canard is just cherry picking the end points. The data show the climate is warming over the long term. 2012 was a record warm year since we have had direct measurements.
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Agreed - selective use of start and end dates was discussed a few pages back and it has been used to prove or disprove everything - temps, storms, sea levels, insurance costs of storms - the lot.
The "16 year limit" is kind of differtent as it was
determined by NOAA (page 24):
Quote:
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Originally Posted by NOAA
Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.
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Some say the period should be 16 years, some say 17. Either way we have a fixed end point (now) which can't be cherry picked and a growing period of no warming.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard
The melting Arctic ice is playing havoc with the jet stream and this means that the north/south waves are more extended and slower moving and weaker. Cold air is spilling down farther south sometimes. Just because the overall temperature averages are rising doesn't mean that all cold weather goes away.
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These fluctuations happen all the time. We had a cr@p summer here because of the cold air being pulled south, yet outside just now it's > 10 Deg C - in Edinburgh in December that is quite mild. Again not unusual, we have a lot of weather here.
There is no evidence of a significant long term change in the gulf stream.
EDIT - Linky for the above -
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/fea...c20100325.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard
It has been over 27 years since we had a record cold month.
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Define "we" - here in the UK we have had a number of record low temperatures since 2005, and there are quite a few being set in Central and Eastern Europe just now where people are losing their lives because of it.