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Old 04-03-2013, 02:59 PM   #650 (permalink)
Arragonis
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Go argue with the scientists who are busily replacing their "validated" models with new ones.

BBC News - Climate model forecast is revised

Quote:
The UK Met Office has revised one of its forecasts for how much the world may warm in the next few years.

It says the average temperature is likely to be 0.43 C above the long-term average by 2017, as opposed to an earlier forecast suggesting a difference of 0.54C.

The explanation is that a new kind of computer model using different parameters has been used.

The Met Office stresses that the work is experimental.

It says it still stands by its longer-term projections that forecast significant warming over the course of this century.

The forecasts are all based on a comparison with the average global temperature over the period 1971-2000.

The earlier model had projected that the period 2012-16 would be 0.54C above that long-term average - within a range of uncertainty from 0.36-0.72C.

By contrast the new model, known as HadGEM3, gives a rise about one-fifth lower than that of 0.43C - within a range of 0.28-0.59.

This would be only slightly higher that the record year of 1998 - in which the Pacific Ocean's El Nino effect was thought to have added more warming.

If the forecast is accurate, the result would be that the global average temperature would have remained relatively static for about two decades
Or go and argue with NOAA which described the "pause" and set the parameters of how long before it became an issue.
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