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Old 07-03-2013, 03:44 AM   #58 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
Thats not going to happen.

Batteries are not going to get much more powerful. The limits of Pb, Li and Ni chemestry have been realized and are being used to their near full potential.

Batteries are not going to get any cheaper. A Nickel shortaged haulted hybrid battery production, shot Nickel prices over $30/lb several years ago and caused battery production costs to skyrocket. This happened while trying to supply little 1KWH and smaller batteries to a fairly small number of hybrids.
What happens when you increase battery size by about 40 times and try to build the vehicles in much larger numbers?

Lithium is the same way, its too expensive and there just isn't enough for few hundred million people to each have a few hundred pounds of lithium batteries each.
I built my lithium battery by hand and on the cheap from raw, rejected bare AMP20 cells (the industry standard for hybrid and electric car battery construction) at a cost of about $430/KwH just for the cells alone.
Not to mention the MSRP for factory spec cells puts the cost closer to $1000/KwH.
How are people going to afford 20 and 30 KwH battery packs that cost as much as a new gasoline powered car, don't last as long or drive nearly as far between fill ups?

Other wise its nice to think about.
Batteries do not have to double in performance. They do not have to double in capacity. They don't have to have twice the life. They do have to improve in cost. But that cost is NOT tied to the raw lithium. Lithium is scraped off the surface of dry lake beds in many places. It is precipitated from mineral wells. It can be bought in it's oxide form for a few dollars a pound. That means the Li batteries costs are largely tied to design/ development and production. Considering how young the technology is, I am confident there will be a considerable reduction in battery costs. A Li battery for a radio controlled car cost 120 dollars US just 10 years ago. The same battery capacity now costs less than 30 dollars. Nope, Lithium isn't expensive. Design and development is. And the batteries are not going to be consumed if recycling continues at the level of lead batteries. There will be enough Lithium to outfit millions of cars.

But, does everyone need a long range pure electric vehicle? I highly doubt it. This is where the idea of a mix of alternatives comes in. I am sure I can get away with a 25 mile range in a commuter car. High performance lead batteries now on the market could fit that need in the mild weather of San Diego. My long bi weekly trips between San Diego and Palm Springs could be covered by a hybrid. My heavy payload company trucks could run on bio fuels. We will not be leaning on only one source of energy in the future. This will reduce the strain on resources such as lithium. We do not need to replace every drop of transport oil with the equivalent in lithium storage capacity.
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