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Old 07-03-2013, 10:57 PM   #86 (permalink)
Occasionally6
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Coal, oil, NG (so fracking) are irrelevant. They will not be part of the energy mix in even 50 years time, let alone 100. They will simply be uneconomic to use.

That won't be because they will be more difficult to find and extract, although that is so. That won't be because the rate at which they can be extracted cannot keep pace with exponential economic growth, regardless of the absolute quantity available, although that will be so. It will be because using them will destroy wealth at a faster rate than it will increase wealth. At some point the general population are going to realise that.

We're already at 400ppm CO2, from the pre-industrial baseline of 280ppm. (And CO2 is not the only anthropogenic greenhouse gas but it's a proxy for the others). 450ppm is the agreed upon target for a reasonable probability of not exceeding 2C of warming (which will have costly impacts but we think we can deal with them).

If it took just 150 years or so to add 120ppm CO2 to the Earth's atmosphere, from a much lower human population base, with much lower per capita industrial output, with Carbon sinks more effective (colder temps., more biomass absorbing), how long do you think it will take to add just 50ppm more? 30 years? 20 years? How long will it take to build the energy sources and industries that will replace the emitting ones?

We are going to stop using fossil fuels and it will happen soon. Yes, it will be difficult to do. That's what we get for procrastinating for 20 years.
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