Quote:
Originally Posted by t vago
Fracking, once thought of as some uneconomical pipe-dream, is now putting the USA on a path to be self-reliant in 5 years. That was another bit of wishful thinking, not so long ago. What's more, the peak-oil crowd can't stand the thought that there might more proven oil reserves under the USA, than the entire rest of OPEC combined.
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Fracking is only economical now because the technology has improved and because Middle Eastern oil costs so much. But the overall productivity of these wells and the longevity are not going to match the run we had with Arabian oil over the past few decades.
Daily Kos: Drill Baby Drill! The Fracking Bubble is Bursting!
(I had an older link on the Bakken formation somewhere... I'm pretty sure it's on Ecomodder).
Peak Oil is real. We've passed it for Arabian oil, and we're going to pass it sometime for US oil... maybe sooner than the industry would like.
But perhaps "Peak Oil Production" is not our biggest concern. "Peak Oil Consumption" should be. There's only so much the customer can afford to pay, and only so little that investors are willing to fund in new drilling ventures. Even with depressed global demand and the general malaise still in place after the 2008 crash, the derivative market absolutely refuses to let Brent Oil fall under $100. And Stateside, investors would like it very much, thank you, if people would be willing to pay $65-85 per barrel before investing in new shale oil developments.
Sooner or later, oil will become too expensive for consumption on a personal level. And eventually, both oil and coal will become too expensive for consumption at an industrial level. Before we get to that stage, the rising costs of oil will make other alternatives more palatable and affordable. While I still don't see wind or solar ever replacing coal, they will definitely be part of the post-oil mix.