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Old 07-05-2013, 03:36 PM   #106 (permalink)
oil pan 4
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Originally Posted by RustyLugNut View Post
Batteries do not have to double in performance. They do not have to double in capacity. They don't have to have twice the life. They do have to improve in cost. But that cost is NOT tied to the raw lithium. Lithium is scraped off the surface of dry lake beds in many places. It is precipitated from mineral wells. It can be bought in it's oxide form for a few dollars a pound. That means the Li batteries costs are largely tied to design/ development and production. Considering how young the technology is, I am confident there will be a considerable reduction in battery costs. A Li battery for a radio controlled car cost 120 dollars US just 10 years ago. The same battery capacity now costs less than 30 dollars. Nope, Lithium isn't expensive. Design and development is. And the batteries are not going to be consumed if recycling continues at the level of lead batteries. There will be enough Lithium to outfit millions of cars.

But, does everyone need a long range pure electric vehicle? I highly doubt it. This is where the idea of a mix of alternatives comes in. I am sure I can get away with a 25 mile range in a commuter car. High performance lead batteries now on the market could fit that need in the mild weather of San Diego. My long bi weekly trips between San Diego and Palm Springs could be covered by a hybrid. My heavy payload company trucks could run on bio fuels. We will not be leaning on only one source of energy in the future. This will reduce the strain on resources such as lithium. We do not need to replace every drop of transport oil with the equivalent in lithium storage capacity.
10 years ago lithium iron phospate batteries were brand new to the market. They were only invented in 1996.
Over the last 2 years they have not gotten any cheaper.
You could say the same thing about Titanium metal. The ore, titanium oxide is cheap and easy to get (cheap enough to be used in paint) the metal is not cheap and never will be unless you can get free energy.
Another thing that has not gotten cheaper over the years is cars. Since the 1970s the inflation adjusted price of the car has almost trippled.
The price of wood has almost doubled since I graduated high school, but inflation has only caused the buying power of the dollar to drop by about a thrid.

What besides electronics and patented items have gotten cheaper and stayed cheaper over the years?

I was not talking about grossly over sized batteries, just 20 to 40KwH.
No one is going to buy a car with 25 miles of range. Would 25 miles work for a lot of people, yeah but selling a vehicle that only meets 1 or 2 criteria (driving to/from work and going to the grocery store) isn't enough to sell a production line mass produced vehicle.

Lead is the most recycled metal by far, even with 99% of lead being recycling there is a projected lead shortage about 40 years from now.

Speaking of recycling, when my lithium batteries give up the ghost where do I recycle them?
I find old abandoned lead batteries and take them to the scrap yard and get 15 cents a pound, cant do that with Lithium.
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Last edited by oil pan 4; 07-05-2013 at 03:43 PM..
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