Quote:
Originally Posted by RCPlayland
If anyone still wishes to banter about this subject.
You will not like the outcome... last example..... Ask yourself this.
Which costs more to make? Small truck vs Big truck
So with that said, which would cost less to convert over the assembly line?
This is the logic I will bring to the table.
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Disingenuous. You admit you are a neophyte and yet you speak as if you have great knowledge. This undermines the veracity of your arguments.
You also take my words out of context and meaning. I made it clear the market for small diesel economy pickup trucks in the USA is exceedingly small in comparison to larger payload vehicles for various technical and socioeconomic reasons. You have provided no reasonably hard argument to counter my (and every US manufacturer or importer's ) conclusion. More on this in just a bit.
Large trucks cost more to build than small trucks. But by not as large a margin as you might think. The previous partnership between Dodge and Mercedes saw Mercedes cut away small vehicle production by Dodge as vans, SUVs and trucks produced several times the profit of economy vehicles for only a fractional increase in production costs. These large vehicles are by far the most profitable vehicles to produce largely because most of their price is perceived value and is malleable through marketing.
You also speak of retrofitting. If the manufacturer did not see it worthwhile to make a small diesel economy pickup truck how do you expect to amortize the millions needed to certify a diesel conversion? For each platform? With increasingly stringent emissions? Converting gasoline engines to propane and CNG is straightforward addition of hardware to the existing engine. Quite easy in comparison to diesel which would entail not just exchange of the entire power plant but also all the accessories it drives as well as a probable upgrade of brakes and suspension to safely handle the probable higher mass. Can you do all of this for the dollars you are "guesstimating"? And still make a profit? Not much robot assembly help either as retrofits are very manpower intensive. It is simplistic to equate production costs linearly to retrofit costs. You had better make profit part of your estimate too because no bank or investor will lend without a clear profit motive. Unless you already have the millions in liquid assets to fund this endeavor of course.
You say via your "math" that you can do this for 5000 to 7000 USD. This is very naive. You cannot simply import some Japanese or European diesel engine and stick it into your S10. You must use an engine that is certified for use in America by the EPA. Also, you cannot go from a heavy duty engine application (aforementioned 4BT Cummins ) and put it into a passenger or light duty application without certification for that application for that year. A cleaner running passenger diesel of the same year or later may be placed in a heavy duty application, but you may not like the pulling power or lack of it. But, if your goal is to putt around for maximum mileage, that would be your clear path. Then there are the requirements for warranty and service . . .
Then there is the marketing. You said everyone you spoke to would buy a diesel economy pickup. Was this number a statistically significant number? I highly doubt it. Marketing doesn't start based on a few tidbits. Carefully crafted polls are put in front of significant demo-graphical population numbers. There truly are numerous drivers of small economy pickups all across the USA. They number in the millions. But, they drive economy pickups because of economical reasons. Would a large number of them consider a 5-7K$ retrofit worthwhile? Maybe. Would a large number of them be willing to put 5-7K$ into a retrofit that costs more than the value of their older S10 or Tacoma? Probably not. Would business owners see it as an economical advantage to upgrade their old fleet? I don't think so.
As a business owner, I can simply say, no. I would put my 5-7K$ towards the down payment on one of the soon to be announced 4 cylinder Cummins powered Nissans. Or the under certification Fiat Diesel Dodges. Or other soon to be announced relatively light duty diesel pickups.
"Hey! You said there wasn't a significant market for light duty diesel pickups?" Currently and previously, no - there wasn't. But, as fuel prices creep past 4$ per gallon and approach 5$, diesel powered anything becomes attractive due to it's current efficiency advantage. The levels of diesel acceptance might approach that of Japan or Europe as our fuel costs approach their costs. Thus there is guarded investment in diesel development by the major manufacturers. Of course, gasoline engines are also closing the efficiency gap along with greater application of various hybridizing technologies.
My neighbors' choice of business vehicles is a good example of the market environment in America. One neighbor has a Taxi/shuttle service to and from the airport. His vehicles regularly exceed 80K miles a year. He chose Dodge Sprinter Diesels as his vehicles because the 40 thousand dollar price tag made sense due to his need for economy and longevity. The other neighbor chose Dodge gasoline powered mini vans as they suited her needs for delivery of flowers to the local community. Her vehicles rarely exceed 12K miles a year. She felt the much lower priced gasoline vans were economical enough for her and had a lifespan that matched her use.
The manufacturers have done their marketing, and it does not include large numbers of small payload diesel vehicles. At least right now. This could change as fuel prices continue their upward trend.