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I believe you have it right. The thing about MPG is that it doesn't actually tell you how much fuel you are using. Gallons per 100 miles is much more useful.
For example:
12.5mpg = 8gal/100mi
25mpg = 4gal/100mi
50mpg = 2gal/100mi
et cetera.
As such, improving the least-efficient vehicles cuts fuel use fastest. Squeezing 15mpg out of a truck that gets 12 or 13mpg normally saves more fuel than getting 35mpg out of a car that usually gets 32 or 33mpg.
It's not that hypermiling mpg doesn't pay, it's just that the returns in terms of dollars and gallons of fuel saved diminish. It's always effective to improve efficiency-- it's just not a linear relationship between the effort expended and the gains achieved.
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