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For decades I have followed Consumer Reports frequency of repair records to see the trends in manufacturer reliability based on owner surveys. I don't see any way to predict reliability 10 years into the future, you have to extrapolate from past trends to even come close to a reliable prediction.
While every car manufactured today that is successful in todays market is basically built by robots and computers, versus the old school unions and people, the quality has improved significantly overall.
I talked with the service manager at a GM dealership, who told me the number of warranty claims on GM vehicles had dropped by 90% from the late 70s to the mid 2000s. That is certainly a dramatic change in quality from the perspective of one who was there and had to make changes to keep the techs busy. I know Detroit quality issues from working for all of the big 3 in the trenches when quality was virtually non existant, even to the point of intentional sabotage on the assembly line when a strike was eminent.
I think the playing field has levelled dramatically in recent decades. I like Ford now while 40 years ago after first hand experiencing assembly line sabotage, I would not touch one with a ten foot pole.
Now I own 2 Fords and personally I would compare them quality wise to anything made globally, even though my Fiesta was made in Mexico, I have not had any quality issues other than the accent lights not working, which was a5 minute repair involving plugging in a loose connection, possible done at the factory or in the collision which totalled the car.
People tend to ride the wave of reliability history and hope that they will get lucky with a new purchase, but to predict an individual manufacturer's long term quality and reliability is virtually an impossible task.
regards
Mech
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